Will the Phillies spend to beef up the middle of the order? Here are some free-agent options.
Given the lack of an in-house solution, and based on his history with the Phillies, Dave Dombrowski might be expected to throw money at his unproductive outfield. But this isn't a typical offseason.
In identifying where the Phillies fell short in the lowest-scoring season of the Bryce Harper era, the team’s new hitting coach suggests looking at one metric.
“At the team level,” Pete Fatse said, “you could make it as simple as OPS.”
OK, let’s not overcomplicate it then. The Phillies ranked 22nd with a .707 on-base plus slugging percentage, their lowest mark since 2018. Dig deeper and find they were 26th in OPS from their outfielders (.686), 29th out of the cleanup spot (.645), and 30th from the right side of the plate (.658).
Bad. Worse. Worst.
» READ MORE: A (likely long) lockout looms again for MLB. Why a salary cap is at the center of it all. Again.
Given the lack of an in-house solution, and based on his history with the Phillies, Dave Dombrowski might be expected to throw money at the problem. And amid a middling free-agent market that opened for business Tuesday, there happen to be two righty-swinging outfielders who profile as No. 4 hitters.
Come on down, Randy Arozarena.
Or Seiya Suzuki.
In 2022, Dombrowski beefed up the offense by signing Nick Castellanos (five years, $100 million) and Kyle Schwarber (four years, $79 million). A year later, in need of a shortstop, he landed Trea Turner with an 11-year, $300 million contract. The year after that, he re-signed Aaron Nola to keep the top of the rotation intact and still pursued Japanese righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Arozarena and Suzuki received qualifying offers Monday, so signing either would cost draft-pick compensation. Under Dombrowski, that hasn’t stopped the Phillies.
But before everyone assumes there’s a red-pinstriped jersey on a hanger in Citizens Bank Park waiting for Arozarena or Suzuki, remember this isn’t a typical offseason. Not with the owners poised to lock out the players on Dec. 2, setting the stage for the sides to go 12 rounds (and maybe more) over a salary cap.
As Dombrowski put it recently: “I don’t know what the rules are.”
Even if there isn’t a salary cap at the other end of this work stoppage, there almost certainly will be harsher penalties on the teams with the highest payrolls. And after carrying the sport’s fourth-highest payroll this year, the Phillies have approximately $239 million in luxury tax commitments for 2027 before they consider signing another $20 million-plus free agent.
Top prospect Aidan Miller almost certainly will be a low-cost addition to the offense. After missing almost the entire season with a low back condition, the 22-year-old infielder was healthy and tearing up the Arizona Fall League (14-for-39, 1.154 OPS) through the weekend.
Miller won’t be impacted by the lockout. If opening day is delayed, he could begin the season in triple A and be ready whenever MLB resumes play.
The Phillies expect more from 23-year-old outfielder Justin Crawford in his second major league season. And they could attempt to fix the outfield by finding a solid defender and/or more productive righty-hitting platoon partner for Brandon Marsh.
» READ MORE: With help from TB12, Aidan Miller is healthy, grateful for adversity, and primed to impact the Phillies in 2027
(Last winter, Dombrowski overrated Otto Kemp’s impact in that role. A year later, Tyrone Taylor is a free-agent option; the Astros designated Jake Meyers for assignment on Monday; the Guardians could trade or nontender Jo Adell later this month.)
But none of that would mitigate the need for middle-of-the-order thump behind Schwarber and Harper. And the best way to find it, short of trading a prospect, might be to spend money in free agency, damn the consequences.
Let’s take a quick spin around the free-agent options:
Randy Arozarena
Timing is everything, and he’s arriving on the market after the best year of his career: .281 average, 26 homers, 26 steals, and an .865 OPS with the Mariners.
But if you believe in Arozarena entering his age-32 season, it’s because you think he can sustain this year’s 4.2% reduction in his strikeout rate over his previous career mark.
Arozarena’s defense in left field has deteriorated. But he was a high performer in the postseason with the Rays. And he checks all the boxes for the Phillies as a righty-hitting outfielder who bats in the middle of the order.
Seiya Suzuki
Like Arozarena, he just had his best season: .270 average, 31 doubles, 26 homers, and an .841 OPS for the Cubs. He’s also 32 and bats right-handed. And he has been more consistent than Arozarena. Suzuki’s year-by-year OPS since coming to the majors in 2022: .770, .842, .848, .804, .841. His defensive metrics in right field were much better this season.
Two potential concerns: a right knee issue that hampered him early in the season and a 38.9% hard-hit rate that was well off his 45.4% career mark.
Ian Happ
The 32-year-old switch-hitter has always been more productive from the left side of the plate (.815 OPS) compared to the right side (.683), making him an imperfect fit. He’s also coming off a tough year at the plate: .218 average, 28 doubles, 24 homers, and .738 OPS for the Cubs.
But he has topped 20 homers in five of the last six seasons, including four in a row, and is a solid defender in left field.
Teruaki Sato
A reminder that the Phillies haven’t signed a player directly from Japan. But they are interested in Sato, whom they scouted extensively this season.
Sato was a third baseman in Japan, where he won the triple crown in Nippon Professional Baseball, but some scouts project he will move to first base or a corner outfield spot in the majors. It’s unclear how the Phillies feel about his positional fit.
» READ MORE: The Phillies have made progress, but still haven’t signed a player out of Japan. Will that change soon?
He also bats left-handed, like Schwarber and Harper. His power — 39 homers, .609 slugging percentage this year; 40 homers, .579 slugging in 2025 — is reminiscent of Munetaka Murakami, who made a smashing major league debut this season with the White Sox.
Sato is also entering only his age-28 season, which may make him a better upside play than the 32-year-old outfielders.
As the Phillies’ representative in the players’ union, Garrett Stubbs is on the front lines of baseball’s upcoming labor dispute. The backup catcher, who was designated for assignment on Thursday, joined Phillies Extra to discuss why the players won’t go for a salary cap, sitting in on early negotiations, when baseball might be played in 2027, and (spoiler!) his plans to create content during the looming lockout. Watch here. Watch here.
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