Two players that could help the Phillies address their biggest trade deadline need
Cost aside, the Angels' Reid Detmers and the Mets' Clay Holmes are the kind of pitching profiles that should have the Phillies working the phones and would dramatically improve their flexibility.
An underrated stat as we look ahead toward the trade deadline …
The Phillies are 42-15 in games started by Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler or Jesús Luzardo.
Impressive? Sure. But also jarring, due to the simple math that follows.
The Phillies have 56-46 overall record. Which means they were 14-31 in games started by anybody other than Sánchez, Wheeler or Luzardo.
» READ MORE: Phillies’ bullpen desperation sets up a perilous trade deadline
Let that number marinate. The more you do, the more you might begin to rethink the Phillies’ trade deadline calculus. This time of year, there are wants and there are needs and there are would-be-helpful-to-haves. A lot of folks seem to have relegated starting pitching to that third bin. In reality, it might be Dave Dombrowski’s most pressing order of business.
The Phillies don’t necessarily need a fourth Cy Young-caliber arm. They shouldn’t be looking for 2009 Cliff Lee or 2010 Roy Oswalt. They can set their sights much lower than the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal or even the Twins’ Joe Ryan. Maybe even lower than Boston’s Sonny Gray. At the same time, Dombrowski needs to be thinking bigger than this year’s version of Walker Buehler or Noah Syndergaard. The Phillies don’t just need someone who would give them a fighting chance in a late-season, must-win game against the Braves. They need someone who could potentially start Game 1 of the National League Division Series. Let’s begin our argument there.
David Murphy alerts
1) Who is the Phillies’ fourth starter in the postseason?
They aren’t going to make it through October without needing one. Unless their October is tragically brief. The Phillies could need someone outside of the Big Three as soon as Game 1 of the NLDS. All it would take is losing a game in the wild card series, which would force Luzardo to the mound for a decisive Game 3. Assuming the usual one off day before the start of the NLDS, none of the Big Three would be on normal rest for Game 1.
Even if the Phillies do have the top of their rotation lined up for the first three games of an NLDS, that still leaves Game 4. They were blessed with an extra off day last year against the Dodgers. That won’t be the case this year if Major League Baseball sticks to its previous pattern of alternating the extra off day between leagues.
2) Will the Phillies even make it to the postseason with the status quo, given the gauntlet that awaits?
This week’s series against the Dodgers is the first of 11 that they will play against either the five winningest teams in the majors or three of the teams nipping at their heels in the NL playoff chase.
It breaks down like this:
Six games against the two winningest teams in the American League (Yankees, Rays)
Six games against the two winningest teams in the NL, with two vs. the Dodgers already in the books.
Seven games against the Braves, who entered Tuesday with a three-game lead in the division.
Twelve games against the Cardinals and Marlins, both of whom were within four games of the Phillies in the loss column as of Tuesday.
Factor in series against the Diamondbacks, Nationals and Mariners and 43 of the Phillies 62 games post-All-Star break will feature opponents who entered Tuesday with a winning record.
The Braves series looms especially large.
The Phillies have a stretch in early September where they will play the Braves seven times in 10 days with no off days. Given the schedule, they’ll need someone other than the Big Three to face the Braves in at least two of those seven games.
» READ MORE: Does Mike Trout actually want to play in Philly? Better question: Do we actually want to see it?
And what about the last week of the season? The Phillies are currently lined up to finish the year with six games against the Brewers and Rays. In order to line up the Big Three for a wild card series, the Phillies would need a fourth and fifth starter to pitch two of the three games against the Rays. Even if they aren’t fighting for a playoff spot, they could be fighting for the right not to travel to Atlanta, Milwaukee, or Los Angeles for the wild card round.
3) Trading for a fourth starter could help the bullpen more than trading for another bullpen arm.
To be clear, this isn’t an either or. The Phillies clearly need to add some form of reinforcements for a bullpen that lost setup man Brad Keller for the season. José Alvarado offered some reason for hope in his appearance against the Dodgers on Monday. Orion Kerkering, less so.
But innings are innings. The fewer of them that are starter pitchers, the more relievers must pitch. You’d rather have a starter coming out of the ‘pen in a must-win postseason game than a reliever starting. Look at Luzardo in Game 4 of last year’s NLDS loss to the Dodgers.
A couple of names that should at least intrigue the Phillies …
Reid Detmers of the Angels and Clay Holmes of the Mets are both potentially available. Holmes is presumably the most available, given that he is currently working his way back from a broken leg and has a player option for next season. Detmers still has two more full years left until free agency and is under contract for a meager $2.63 million this season. Only 27 years old, with borderline elite strikeout, walk and home run numbers, he could end up costing more than the Phillies are willing to pay.
» READ MORE: Phillies trade deadline preview: Bullpen is becoming a top priority, and maybe the Mets can provide answers
Cost aside, both Detmers and Holmes are the kind of profile that should have the Phillies working the phones. Holmes was a longtime setup man with the Yankees who moved into the Mets rotation last season. Detmers moved to the bullpen last season after a disappointing year as a starter, but has since rejoined the rotation. Either would dramatically improve the Phillies’ flexibility, both down the stretch and through the postseason.
Phillies owner John Middleton spent months planning to host the city’s first All-Star Game in 30 years. Now that it’s over, he joined Phillies Extra, The Inquirer’s baseball podcast, to recap his most memorable moments from the week. He also discussed the upcoming trade deadline and Field of Dreams Game in Iowa, and the future of the top of the Phillies organizational masthead. Watch here. Watch here.
You can also subscribe to the podcast version of Phillies Extra on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
Previous episodes: Ryan Howard | Dan Baker | Ricky Bottalico | Preston Mattingly | Caleb Cotham | Larry Bowa | Joe Maddon | Rhys Hoskins | Terry Francona
