Bryson Stott’s historic tear and Zack Wheeler’s slump are among the key Phillies subplots
Wheeler has struggled to locate his pitches, while Stott is powering the bottom-third of the lineup. Can the Phillies avoid overworking high-leverage bullpen arm Jonathan Bowlan?
Three big questions for the Phillies as they look to do to the Cardinals what they just did to the Marlins …
Zack Wheeler is going to be OK, right?
Only once in Wheeler’s seven years with the Phillies had he gone more than two consecutive starts without pitching at least 5⅔ innings. Never had he gone more than three. His current streak now stands at five, a career-high and by far the most important subplot of the Phillies’ stretch run.
The top-line key performance indicators suggest something more than bad luck is responsible. Wheeler’s ground ball ratio over his last five starts is half of what it was in the first two-plus months of this season. His soft contact percentage is down, while his hard contact percentage is up. His 10 walks over his last three starts are his most in a three-start span since 2019, his last season with the Mets. His strike percentage on Tuesday was his second lowest of the season.
» READ MORE: The Phillies’ defense has improved with their shuffled infield. And it starts with Bryson Stott.
The Phillies don’t sound too concerned. Wheeler’s pitch-level metrics don’t set off any health alarm bells.
His fastball velocity remains in line with his overall season average: 95.5 mph on the four-seamer and 95 on the sinker in his most recent start, per Statcast. Both are marginally above their season-long baseline. Wheeler’s spin rates haven’t changed much at all. He is simply struggling to locate.
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Can Bryson Stott keep this up?
The Phillies don’t need Stott to be Albert Pujols, but it’s always a good thing when a player does something that nobody since Pujols had done. In Stott’s case, that something was walking 21 times with just four strikeouts in a 19-game on base streak that ended earlier this week with an 0-for-4 outing against the Marlins.
The Phillies’ formula for a late-season surge has always required somebody in the bottom-third of the lineup to get hot. They are a completely different team when somebody at the bottom of the order is reaching base consistently. Few hitters have been hotter than Stott in recent weeks. Less than a month ago, his OPS was .692. As of Thursday, it was .755. That’s a remarkable jump this late in the season. The encouraging thing is what preceded it.
Stott has been a well-above average big league hitter for half of a season now. In his last 81 games, he is hitting .284 with a .375 OBP and a .429 slugging percentage. That’s an .804 OPS, with 52 strikeouts and 41 walks in 326 plate appearances.
If Stott continues at this pace for the rest of the season, there is a conceivable world where Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber both get hot at the same time and the Phillies score runs with enough consistency to rattle off the kind of winning streak that can pressure the Braves.
Can the Phillies avoid overworking Jonathan Bowlan?
This is one of those questions that would have sounded like a foreign language at the start of the season. Not only has Bowlan worked his way to the back of the bullpen, the Phillies might not be able to survive without him. It’s worth noting, then, that the 29-year-old right-hander threw a combined 62 pitches in his last two outings with one day of rest between them.
» READ MORE: Hayes: Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott address how Luis Arraez helped save the Phillies’ offense
Bowlan fits the profile of a guy who can handle the rigor of intensive bullpen action. With the Royals last season, he threw 63 pitches in a three-day stretch and 96 over four days and showed no ill effects. He was optioned to the minors but continued pitching regularly and returned to the big leagues later in the month, posting a 2.55 ERA in 17⅔ innings from late August through the end of last season.
All that said, the Phillies will need to exert some willpower with Bowlan, who has emerged as the most dependable arm in the bullpen this side of Jhoan Duran. He has walked just seven batters in 19⅓ innings since moving into a high-leverage seventh- or eighth-inning role on July 7. He has a 2.33 ERA during that stretch, even after allowing a couple of runs to the Marlins on Monday. Bowlan’s has been the kind of unforeseen emergence that a team needs to get where the Phillies want to go. Interim manager Don Mattingly and his athletic training staff are going to need to walk the perilous line that always exists when a manager trusts one reliever above all others.
Tony Gwynn Jr. is a former major league outfielder and son of late Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn. Over the last two years, he got to know new Phillies second baseman Luis Arraez, whose contact skills at the plate often draw comparisons to Gwynn. Tony Jr. joined Phillies Extra to discuss his father, Arraez, and the bonds that connect them. Watch here.
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