Bet on Duke to emerge from a crowded East region and get back to the Final Four

Three of college basketball’s most decorated programs — Duke, Kentucky and Michigan State — were dropped into the East Region of the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

Despite their impressive histories, though, none are among the top four seeds. Furthermore, none are among the top three favorites to hang another Final Four banner in the rafters.

Does that mean Duke, Kentucky and Michigan State have no shot to come out of the East Region? Of course not — this is March Madness, after all. In fact, we’re backing one of those blue bloods to punch its ticket to Houston, which hosts this year’s Final Four.

Here’s a look at odds to win the East Region and how we’re attacking it from a wagering perspective.

Odds via FanDuel and updated as of 10:30 p.m. ET on March 13.

Purdue enters the NCAA Tournament 29-5 and spent more weeks ranked No. 1 (six) than another team.

The Boilermakers also won the regular season and tournament championships in the Big Ten, which sent eight teams to the NCAA Tournament (tied for the most among all leagues). And they have the College Basketball Player of the Year in dominant 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey.

Yet Purdue is barely favored to win its own region, which boasts just three teams that have KenPom ratings of 19th or better. (By comparison, the West Region has five of the top 11 teams per KenPom.)

Not only are the Boilermakers a trendy pick to be the first No. 1 seed to get bounced, but many pundits think they won’t escape the opening weekend.

Why so much Purdue hate? Because coach Matt Painter’s squad has struggled to put away opponents in recent weeks — including nearly blowing a 17-point lead with 6:30 to play against Penn State in Sunday’s Big Ten title game.

Also, the Boilermakers’ backcourt play has been shaky of late, especially against opponents that apply pressure.

» READ MORE: Here's an upset pick for each region as the NCAA Tournament gets underway

Memphis might not make it to — let alone through — the opening weekend. That’s because the Tigers drew a brutal first-round opponent in No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic.

The Owls are 31-3, in the midst of a seven-game winning streak and are among the highest scoring teams in the nation (79.3 points per game). Beyond that, FAU’s KenPom rating (No. 26) isn’t far from that of Memphis (No. 19). And the Owls’ NCAA Net ranking (No. 13) is superior to the Tigers (No. 23).

But Memphis just upset Houston — the No. 2 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament — 75-65 in the American Athletic Conference Tournament title game.

No, the Cougars didn’t have point guard/top scorer/team leader Marcus Sasser (groin injury). But Sasser was on the court for two previous meetings — a hard-fought 72-64 home win Feb. 19 and a 67-65 buzzer-beating victory at Memphis in the regular season finale.

So the Tigers clearly have the talent to play with anyone. That includes Purdue, whom Memphis would face in the second round.

If they can find a way out of the opening weekend, the Tigers will be a tough out for whoever is left in the East.

» READ MORE: Five best strategies and tips to help you win your NCAA Tournament pool

We will acknowledge our bias right from the rip: We have never believed in Rick Barnes in March, and we’re not about to start now.

The Tennessee head coach is as good a recruiter as anyone in the country. But getting the most out of his talent at this time of year? Not his strong suit — and that’s putting it kindly.

Since 1995-96, Barnes has led four different programs — Providence, Clemson, Texas and Tennessee — to 23 NCAA Tournaments. His record: 25-26.

Barnes has made it out of the opening weekend just four times in those 23 appearances and reached just one Final Four. One of his seven second-round losses was in 2006-07. Barnes’ star player that year? Some kid named Kevin Durant.

But this “Avoid Tennessee” recommendation isn’t entirely an anti-Barnes thing. The Vols lost point guard Zakai Zeigler to a season-ending knee injury late last month. Zeigler led the team in assists (5.4 per game) and steals (2.0), ranked second in scoring (10.7), and shot 83.3% from the free throw-line.

It’s tough to back a team missing its starting point guard — even tougher when that team is coached by Rick Barnes. And it’s March.

The oddsmakers say the answer to this one is No. 10 USC vs. No. 7 Michigan State, as the Spartans are a scant 1.5-point favorite.

The public will tell you it’s No. 12 Oral Roberts vs. No. 5 Duke. Because the Golden Eagles are riding a 17-game winning streak and are 27-1 in their last 28, while the Blue Devils have won nine in a row and are … well, the Blue Devils.

But we cannot wait for Friday night’s Florida Atlantic-Memphis clash. The two up-tempo teams have nearly identical scoring averages (Memphis 79.5, FAU 79.3). They also have a lot of momentum.

We’ll be surprised if this isn’t an edge-of-your-seat March Madness classic.

We detailed our logic behind this recommendation in our first-round upsets article.

In a nutshell, Kentucky and Providence are more evenly matched than their seedings — not to mention the 3.5-point spread — would lead you to believe.

And while both have been inconsistent in recent weeks, we like the Friars’ offensive firepower and balance against a Wildcats squad that has allowed 67-plus points in eight of its last 10 games — all against opponents that rank 106th or worse in scoring offense.

The Blue Devils are peaking at the perfect time. Their nine-game winning streak includes an impressive run to the ACC Tournament championship in which Duke won three games by a combined 47 points.

But it’s no so much the volume of victories that has us high on Duke as it is the manner in which those victories were compiled.

In the conference tourney semifinals and final, the Blue Devils beat ACC regular-season co-champs Miami and Virginia by respective scores of 85-78 and 59-49 — in a 24-hour span.

During its nine-game winning streak, Duke has scored in the 50s (once), 60s (twice), 70s (three times), 80s (twice) and 90s (once). At the same time, the defense has given up more than 69 points once and yielded just 62.9 ppg.

Admittedly, the ACC wasn’t great this season. But Duke has a roster of blue-chip recruits who have figured out how to play together at just the right time.

Really, the Blue Devils have all the ingredients you want for a Final Four run: talent, momentum, a stout defense and the ability to beat teams in many different ways.

And while this is head coach Jon Scheyer’s first NCAA Tournament manning the controls of the Duke ship, he worked long enough as Mike Krzyzewski’s co-captain to understand how to navigate the treacherous March Madness waters.

So our money is on the Blue Devils to reach back-to-back Final Fours for the first time since Coach K led the program to five in a row from 1989-1993.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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