Pac-12 Tournament predictions: Arizona is a solid bet to defend its title

UCLA or Arizona?

That’s the question college basketball bettors are pondering ahead of the Pac-12 Tournament in Las Vegas.

Yes, the league’s other 10 members were invited to the event. But if you believe college basketball oddsmakers, those members would’ve been better off just staying home. Because this year’s tournament is all about UCLA and Arizona.

The West Coast rivals are sitting No. 2 (UCLA) and No. 8 (Arizona) in this week’s Top 25 poll; No. 2 and No. 11 in KenPom’s rankings; and No. 4 and No. 11 in NCAA NET rankings.

Indeed, the Bruins and Wildcats seem destined for a rubber-match clash in Saturday night’s championship game.

Ah, but this is March — the time of year when anything can (and often does) happen. So is there a live underdog behind UCLA and Arizona that’s capable of leaving Las Vegas with the trophy?

Doubtful.

Here’s our betting preview and prediction for the Pac-12 Tournament that tips off Wednesday at T-Mobile Arena.

Odds updated as of 12:30 p.m. ET on March 7.

UCLA (27-4, 18-12-1 ATS) landed in Las Vegas with a 10-game winning streak packed in its suitcase. But the Bruins also landed in Las Vegas with a major injury concern. Starting guard Jaylen Clark, who is the team’s second-leading scorer and rebounder, suffered a right leg/foot injury in the second half of Saturday’s season-ending 82-73 home win over Arizona.

The exact extent of Clark’s injury remains a mystery. However, the junior was in a boot and on crutches when he returned to UCLA’s bench after scoring 11 points in 15 minutes of action.

Although Clark’s status for the Pac-12 Tournament — and beyond — is in serious doubt, the Bruins are favored to win the event for the first time in nine years. But they’re not favored by much.

For instance, at Caesars Sportsbook, UCLA has +130 odds to cut down the nets. Arizona, which handed the Bruins the third of their four losses back in January, are +190.

With their defeat in Los Angeles on Saturday, the Wildcats finished tied with USC for second place, both four games behind UCLA. However, Arizona won the tiebreaker and enters the Pac-12 tourney as the No. 2 seed. That means the only way the Bruins and Wildcats will see each other for a third time is if both make the title game. Which is exactly what they did last year, with Arizona prevailing 84-76.

The Wildcats (25-6, 14-17 ATS) have won a record eight Pac-10 Tournament titles, including four of the last seven. UCLA hasn’t taken the crown since beating Arizona in 2014.

Can the Bruins end that drought this week? It won’t be easy, especially if Clark doesn’t play (and it’s unlikely he will). But it’s worth noting that Arizona has nearly as many losses in its last six games (three) as UCLA has had all season.

Also, when Clark left Saturday’s game with nearly 18 minutes left in the second half, the Bruins had an 11-point lead. They won by nine.

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If you believe in talent and a complete body of work over a full season, USC might be a Pac-12 Tournament sleeper worthy of an investment.

As mentioned, the Trojans (22-9, 17-14 ATS) matched Arizona’s 14-6 conference record. They lost the tiebreaker because the Wildcats swept the season series (81-66 in the desert; 87-81 in L.A.). However, USC handed the Bruins their most recent defeat — five days after losing 58-52 at Arizona, UCLA fell 77-64 at its crosstown rival.

The Trojans also mounted a furious second-half comeback in the first meeting with the Bruins before eventually losing 60-58 as an 11-point road underdog.

USC did get thumped in its only game against fourth-place Oregon (78-60 road loss). But it went 3-1 against Arizona State and Washington State, who tied for fifth in the regular season.

Speaking of Washington State, it is the league’s hottest team not named UCLA. The Cougars (16-15 SU and ATS) closed the season with six straight wins. They also won at Arizona (74-61), played well in the rematch with the Wildcats (63-58 home loss) and nearly upset UCLA at home (67-66).

BetMGM is currently offering the optimum odds on Washington State to win the Pac-12 Tournament (+2000). USC’s best odds (+750) also are at BetMGM.

Meanwhile, FanDuel has the best price on Oregon (+1100) and Arizona State (+2300).

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Clark’s injury makes backing UCLA a risky proposition, especially at such short odds. And it’s not even just his absence on the court. If Clark is in fact done for the season, Bruins coach Mick Cronin will have to use the Pac-12 Tournament as a chemistry lab to figure out which roster combinations will work best for the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

There’s also a big mental hurdle Clark’s teammates will have to overcome. Those teammates didn’t have time to dwell on the injury Saturday against Arizona because they were in the heat of battle. It’ll be a different story when they take the court Thursday afternoon.

The Bruins should be able to handle a quarterfinal matchup against either Washington or Colorado. After that, though, UCLA would be vulnerable against either Oregon or Washington State.

So we’re backing Arizona, even though it has played .500 ball over the last six games.

With USC, Utah, Stanford, Arizona State and Oregon State on their side of the bracket, the Wildcats have a pretty smooth path to the title game.

Yes, two of the recent losses were to Arizona State (home) and Stanford (road). But Arizona otherwise went 7-0 against those five squads.

Most importantly, the Wildcats arrive in Vegas 100 percent healthy — not to mention eager to defend last year’s Pac-12 Tournament title and improve their NCAA Tournament seed.

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The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.