Patriots vs. Cardinals predictions: Four prop bets for Monday Night Football

The best way to follow up a 4-0 Sunday with NFL props: How about with a 4-0 Monday?

After nailing a quartet of Eagles vs. Giants props — as well as easy point spread winners on the Eagles and 49ers — we’re back with four more best bets for Monday’s Patriots vs. Cardinals showdown in Arizona.

In addition to three player props — headlined by three-time All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins — we’re sprinkling in a team prop that’s focused on New England’s touchdown total.

Will the Patriots find the end zone at least three times? Find the answer below in our four pack of Patriots vs. Cardinals props.

Note: Odds updated as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 12.

Hopkins has been a picture of consistency in the receiving yardage department since returning from a PED-related suspension that cost him the first six games of the season.

Despite his quarterback’s sometimes erratic play, Hopkins has piled up at least 87 receiving yards in five of his six outings. The only exception was a four-catch, 36-yard effort against Seattle in Week 9.

So why is Hopkins’ yardage prop well south of 80 on Monday night? Probably because he’s going up against Bill Belichick, whose defensive schemes are always designed to take away the opposing team’s primary weapon.

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Also because New England has the NFL’s ninth-rated pass defense, allowing just 200 yards per contest. That number is misleading, though.

Here’s why: In consecutive games in Week 9 and (following a bye) Week 11, the Patriots held the Colts’ Sam Ehlinger and the Jets’ Zach Wilson to 43 and 44 net passing yards, respectively.

Wilson played on a blustery day in New England (the score was 3-3 until the final seconds). Ehlinger was sacked nine times and led his team to three points in his second career start (and first on the road).

Take out those two contests — and one against second-year Bears QB Justin Fields — and the Patriots have allowed 241.4 passing yards per game overall. They also have surrendered an average of 255.5 passing yards in six road games.

Last week, Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs racked up 92 receiving yards. The previous week, Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson had 139. And the Jets’ Garrett Wilson (115) and Packers’ Allen Lazard (116) had big games at home against New England.

Hopkins is better than Wilson and Lazard and barely a tier below Diggs and Jefferson. So bet on the 2013 first-round pick producing at least 76 yards Monday night.

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To reiterate what we said in our Monday Night Football betting preview, New England’s defense has struggled this year against dual-threat quarterbacks.

Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson ran for 107 yards in a 37-26 Week 3 road win. And four weeks later, Fields went to New England and had 82 rushing yards in the Bears’ 33-14 Monday night upset.

The Patriots did contain Buffalo’s Josh Allen last Thursday (20 yards on eight rushes). But Allen is a drop-back passer who picks his spots to run. Jackson, Fields and Murray are scramblers who use their legs to extend plays — and when those plays break down, they take off, often for big gains.

Through his first four games this season, Murray had just 91 rushing yards on 24 carries (3.8 yards per carry). In six games since, the first overall pick of the 2019 draft has compiled 324 ground yards on 42 carries — a whopping 7.7 yards per tote.

Murray cleared 35 rushing yards in five of those contests and came close to doing so in the other (30 yards).

Murray knows he must make plays with his legs for Arizona to win Monday. Belichick and the Patriots know this, too, of course — just as they knew Fields and Jackson would try to get loose. Both did, and we’re confident Murray will, too.

Play the Cardinals QB Over his rushing total at FanDuel.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

When the Patriots hosted Buffalo in the Week 13 Thursday nighter, we recommended betting Stevenson to catch more than four passes. He hauled in six.

That gives the Patriots’ No. 1 running back 21 catches in his last three games and 39 in his last six. Only once in those six contests did Stevenson fall short of six receptions (he had three in a 26-3 rout of the Colts in Week 9).

The Patriots have had issues all season consistently pushing the ball down the field. As such, QBs Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe have been looking to get the ball to Stevenson on designed screen passes and checkdowns.

Not only does Arizona rank in the bottom third of the league in pass defense, but only the Raiders (69.7%) allow quarterbacks to complete passes at a higher rate than the Cardinals (69.2%).

Meanwhile, what’s the thing Jones has done well in his second season as Tom Brady’s replacement? Connect with his targets. His 68.2% completion rate ranks second only to Seattle’s Geno Smith (71.5%).

Look for Jones and Stevenson to continue to play catch out of the backfield Monday night as they attempt to move the chains and win the time of possession battle.

Bet on Stevenson to beat this FanDuel prop and finish with at least five receptions once again.

New England scored a total of three touchdowns in its first two games of the season at Miami and at Pittsburgh. Since then, the Pats have been fairly prolific on the road, averaging 27.5 points in four games as a visitor (scoring 22 or more in each contest).

However, Patriots kicker Nick Folk has been responsible for the bulk of that production, kicking 11 field goals in those four road games. That includes nine in the last two road games at the Jets and Vikings.

Folk also had five field goals in a 29-0 Week 5 home win over the Lions and four in that 26-3 Week 9 home win over Indianapolis.

For the season, the Patriots have scored more than two touchdowns just three times in 12 games. And they haven’t done it all in the last six contests. During this stretch, the team has just nine total touchdowns (including one score each by the defense and special teams).

So we’re playing the percentages with this one and rolling with Under 2.5 touchdowns at Caesars Sportsbook.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.