Rams vs. Packers: Bet on these four props for Monday Night Football

Given the circumstances, Baker Mayfield’s game-winning drive to beat the Las Vegas Raiders in the Week 12 Thursday Night Football game ought to be in the running for Drive of the Year.

Mayfield had just arrived in Los Angeles 48 hours prior to kickoff, so he had little time to study coach Sean McVay’s sophisticated playbook.

On top of that, he and the Rams’ depleted offense were backed up on their 2-yard line with less than two minutes to play and needed a touchdown to win.

Thanks in part to two boneheaded Raiders penalties, Mayfield pulled it off and Los Angeles stole a 17-16 victory.

Can the 2018 No. 1 overall pick follow up that incredible effort with a big passing performance in icy Green Bay on Monday night? Let’s just say we’re not betting on it.

Mayfield leads off our four pack of Rams vs. Packers player props. (And yes, we’ve got one on the “other” quarterback, too.)

Note: Odds updated as of 1:15 p.m. ET on Dec. 19.

Mayfield was sensational in leading the Rams to two touchdowns in barely three minutes to beat the Raiders last Thursday night.

However, as we noted in our Monday Night Football betting preview, Mayfield picked apart an awful Raiders pass defense on those two scoring drives. The Packers’ secondary? Not awful.

Green Bay allows just 193 passing yards per game. Only Dallas (191.6) and Philadelphia (172.4) are better.

Yes, five of the last seven quarterbacks to go up against the Packers have thrown for more than 190 yards. However, none were missing their top two wideouts, which is the challenge Mayfield is once again facing (Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson III remain on injured reserve).

Also, while Mayfield finished with 230 passing yards against Las Vegas, 80 came on the final drive. And had the Raiders not gotten called for a pass interference penalty that nullified an interception, the drive would’ve ended after three plays.

Even though Mayfield has had his nose buried in McVay’s playbook for the past 11 days, he still has to face a top-tier secondary without much dependable talent around him. And he has to do so on the road in sub-freezing weather (temperatures will be below 20 degrees).

So we’re riding with the Under on this prop at FanDuel.

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Jefferson was on the receiving end of Mayfield’s 23-yard game-clinching TD pass against the Raiders. It was just his second catch of the game and more than doubled his receiving yardage (he went from 21 yards to 44 yards).

But that’s the thing with Jefferson: He doesn’t catch a ton of passes — he has just 13 in seven games (all coming in the last five contests). But when he does get his hands on the ball, it tends to be for big gains.

Jefferson is averaging 13.6 yards per reception, which is actually down from last year, when he had 50 catches for 802 yards (16 per catch). In the last four weeks, Jefferson has turned 3, 3, 2 and 2 receptions into respective yardage totals of 41, 29, 39 and 44 yards.

Certainly, the Packers are aware of Jefferson’s big-play capabilities. Last November at Lambeau Field, Jefferson caught just three of nine targets but for 93 yards — including a 79-yard TD.

Without Kupp and Robinson, Jefferson is L.A.’s most experienced wide receiver. We expect Mayfield to lean on that experience more than he did last week.

Do we envision another 79-yard TD? Not at all. But Jefferson should be good for a couple of 15-yard catch-and runs. From there, we would just need him and Mayfield to connect on one short pass to top this prop.

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How has Rodgers done in the long-pass department in what has been — for him — a down season? With respect to this prop number, not great.

The two-time reigning NFL MVP had long passes of more than 35 yards five times in nine games from Weeks 2-10. He also topped out at exactly 35 yards in consecutive contests against the Giants and Jets in Weeks 5 and 6.

However, in three-plus games since throwing TD passes of 58 and 39 yards to Christian Watson against Dallas in Week 10, none of Rodgers’ last 58 completions have gone for more than 30 yards.

Admittedly, the Rams’ secondary is below average (L.A. is much better against the run). And without pass-rushing demon Aaron Donald the last two weeks, the Rams have allowed long completions to the Raiders’ Davante Adams (35 yards) and the Seahawks’ DK Metcalf (40) and Tyler Lockett (36).

Donald (ankle) won’t play again Monday. Still, when you mix the frigid weather with a bunch of unreliable wideouts — which Green Bay has — the odds of Rodgers connecting on a 36-yard-plus pass — which he’s done in just six of 13 games this season — aren’t great.

Take the Under on this prop at BetMGM.

On the first play of his NFL career back in Week 1 at Minnesota, Watson dropped a perfectly thrown deep ball from Rodgers that would’ve gone for a 65-yard touchdown.

It would take two months for Watson to finally redeem himself — and he did it with a three-TD hat trick against Dallas.

Jump ahead to Monday night, and Watson has seven touchdowns on his last 15 catches, scoring at least once in four straight games.

We’re betting that the rookie from North Dakota State extends his touchdown reception streak against the Rams, who have surrendered 18 TD passes this season.

It might not be a majestic 58-yarder like his first one against the Cowboys — at least we hope it isn’t — but Watson and Rodgers should connect in the end zone at least once. Take the plus money that Caesars Sportsbook is offering on this prop.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.