Spain vs. Japan odds, prediction: Why Japan could pull off a stunner

Perhaps no team embodied the chaotic nature of the World Cup better than Japan through the first 10 days of the tournament. After stunning Germany as +650 underdogs, Samurai Blue lost to Costa Rica as -210 favorites.

Japan now finds itself in a sticky spot. They can advance to the Round of 16 with a win over Spain on Thursday, but anything short of that and they’re almost certainly going home.

Does Samurai Blue have any more tricks up their sleeve?

Coming into the group stage there were some underlying signals pointing to Japan as a potential upstart in Group E, which on paper looked pretty straightforward with Spain and Germany priced as big favorites to advance.

Samurai Blue are a thrilling, frenetic side that thrives on forcing, and pouncing on, mistakes high up the pitch. Against possession-dominant teams, like Germany, Japan waits in the weeds and strikes. They can be a stylistic nightmare for any side that wants to play out of the back — which Spain is committed to doing — and they have creative players all over the pitch to make special things happen when they do get on the ball.

But getting the ball off of Spain is easier said than done. La Furia Roja’s lineup is a symphony of the some of the best passers on the planet. Pedri, Gavi and Sergio Busquets are dynamic in the midfield and should have plenty of success moving the ball around the Japanese defense.

That being said, there is still a path to success here for Japan.

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Even though Spain looked brilliant at times against Germany, they did seem to struggle out of possession and looked vulnerable after turning the ball over. Japan’s ability to cause havoc and force mistakes could lead to a similar pattern.

Expect Spain to have the lion’s share of the ball and the majority of the scoring chances, but if Japan can be clinical on the few opportunities they create, they can put some pressure on La Furia Roja on Thursday.

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