Titans vs. Eagles predictions: Four prop bets for Sunday’s showdown

Not a bad effort with our Thursday Night Football props predictions, as we went 3-for-4. If only Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen would’ve done some more damage with his legs.

We’re back with four more player props for Sunday’s Titans vs. Eagles clash at Lincoln Financial Field. Both starting quarterbacks are featured, as is a future Hall of Fame running back and one of the NFL’s best young wide receivers.

Now let’s see if we can improve upon Thursday’s strong result — in which we also nailed the Bills as a favorite over New England — and deliver a 4-0 sweep. Here’s our four-pack of Titans vs. Eagles props for one of the more intriguing matchups of Week 13.

Note: Odds updated as of 5 p.m. ET on Dec. 2.

Hurts ran for a career-high 156 yards in last Sunday night’s 40-33 victory over the Packers. In fact, the Eagles’ quarterback topped the century mark for just the second time in 41 NFL games (30 starts) — and he did it before halftime.

Throw in an 86-yard rushing effort against Indianapolis in Week 11, and Hurts has collected 242 of his 597 rushing yards this season in his last two games.

So why is this rushing prop less than 50 yards? And why are we betting the Under? Because the Titans have the NFL’s third-ranked rushing defense — only the Ravens (79.5) and 49ers (82.0) are giving up fewer rushing yards per game than Tennessee (84.5).

On the flip side, the Titans are allowing 266.7 passing yards per contest. Out of 32 NFL teams, only the Vikings (276.1) are worse.

So it makes complete sense that Hurts would do a lot more throwing and a lot less running this week. And even though a lot of his rushing yards come on scrambles when pass plays break down, the Titans are too good and too smart to get burned as badly as Green Bay and Indianapolis did.

Keep this in mind, too: Hurts topped 50 rushing yards in the first two games against the Lions and Vikings and the last two against the Packers and Colts. In the seven games in between, he had more than 38 rushing yards just once (61 at Arizona in Week 5).

Those five teams — Detroit, Green Bay, Indy, Minnesota and Arizona — all give up more than 110 rushing yards per game. And those squads rank 31st, 30th, 17th, 14th and 10th against the run, respectively.

So look for Hurts to do most of his damage through the air against Tennessee and stay Under his rushing number at BetMGM.

» READ MORE: Titans vs. Eagles prediction: Tennessee will keep it close Sunday at The Linc

If Hurts indeed airs it out a bunch against Tennessee’s terrible secondary, well, it’s a pretty safe bet a bunch of footballs will end up in Smith’s general vicinity.

The 2020 Heisman Trophy winner from Alabama leads Philadelphia with 56 catches in his second NFL campaign (three more than A.J. Brown). And that’s after getting shutout in Week 1 at Detroit.

Since the season opener, Smith has caught at least five passes seven times in 10 games. And had Hurts been a bit more accurate last week — Smith was targeted nine times but finished with four receptions — it would be eight times in 10 games.

On the subject of targets: Hurts has been looking Smith’s way a lot the last three weeks (26 targets resulting in 16 receptions). Go back to Oct. 9 against Arizona, and Smith has been targeted eight or more times in five of the last seven games.

With Brown and Smith on the field, it’s always a pick-your-poison situation when opponents face the Eagles. And since the speedy Brown has 222 more receiving yards than Smith and averages nearly 5 more yards per catch, we have a feeling the Titans will pay more attention to Brown.

That will leave Smith plenty of opportunities (and room) to secure at least five receptions. That’s why BetMGM is charging a lot of juice to the Over side of this prop. Still, it’s a smart wager.

Say this much for Tennessee’s $29 million — yes, $29 million — quarterback: He’s been consistent when on the field this year.

Consistently average … but consistent!

True, Tannehill has gone Over this particular prop number five times, including in his last three starts since missing two games with an ankle injury. But each time he barely did so: 19, 19, 20, 22 and 22.

More importantly, none of those games were against the NFL’s No. 2-ranked pass defense, which is the position the Eagles occupy.

OK, so Tannehill had 22 completions against the No. 4 pass defense (Green Bay) and 19 against the No. 3 pass defense (Denver) in consecutive games before going 22-for-34 last week against Cincinnati. But the Packers and Broncos have combined for 14 interceptions this season.

Why do we bring up that stat? Because the Eagles have an NFL-high 15 interceptions.

Even though Tannehill has done a great job protecting the football this season — he has four INTs after tossing 14 last year — Titans coach Mike Vrabel knows his QB is prone to mistakes. That’s why he hasn’t let Tannehill sling it all over the lot this season. (Tannehill has attempted more than 27 passes just three times.)

Vrabel understands his only path to victory Sunday is to shorten the game with a sustained rushing attack and hold onto the football against an Eagles defense that has forced 23 turnovers — three more than any other team.

So look for Tannehill to play the “game manager” role Sunday and finish with about 14-17 competitions. Play this one Under at BetMGM.

» READ MORE: Eagles among early favorites in matchup with Titans during Week 13 NFL slate

The best running back on the planet had just 38 rushing yards — his second lowest output of the season — in last week’s 20-16 home loss to the Bengals. He also was held out of the end zone.

Here’s why we expect at least the latter part to change Sunday in Philadelphia: Henry hasn’t gone consecutive games without a rushing touchdown all season.

After getting shutout in the season opener against the Giants, Henry scored Tennessee’s only touchdown in a 41-7 Week 2 loss in Buffalo. Then he crossed the goal line twice in Week 8 against Houston after failing to score in Week 7 against the Colts. And two weeks ago, he hit pay dirt in Green Bay on Thursday night four days after bageling against the Broncos at home.

As we mentioned in our Titans vs. Eagles betting preview — and alluded to in the Tannehill prop analysis — we believe Henry will touch the ball a lot Sunday. It’s by far Tennessee’s best chance to pull off the upset.

Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon knows this, of course. So you can be sure he’ll load the box in an attempt to shut down Henry.

That’s precisely why we aren’t touching Henry’s rushing total prop. But we know the two-time former NFL rushing champ will get the rock every time the Titans are near the goal line.

Which is why we like his chances to punch one in on Sunday. After all, Henry has gone back-to-back games without a TD just once since Week 10 of the 2020 season — a stretch of 27 contests.

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