Back Shohei Ohtani, Japan in World Baseball Classic futures market
With a talented roster led by superstar Shohei Ohtani, Japan offers the best value to win upcoming international tournament
Spring training games commenced over the weekend, beginning the long and arduous slog to early November, when MLB will crown its 2023 champion.
However, baseball fans won’t have to wait nearly that long for the sport’s next world champion to be crowned.
After a six-year hiatus, the World Baseball Classic kicks off next week with a record 20 countries — and a bevy of MLB stars — competing in baseball’s version of soccer’s World Cup.
And much like the World Cup, sportsbooks across the nation have posted betting odds for the fifth incarnation of the WBC.
Which teams are favored to win their respective pools? Which one is favored to win it all? And where does the best betting value lie?
Here’s a WBC betting primer, including our picks for the winners of each of four pools and a prediction for the country we believe will end up with baseball bragging rights for the next four years.
Odds updated as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Feb. 27.
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World Baseball Classic odds: Dominican Republic leads the way
Baseball may be America’s pastime. And the United States may be the defending WBC champs. But in the eyes of oddsmakers, Team USA does not have the best baseball team on the planet.
That distinction belongs to the Dominican Republic.
The 2013 WBC champs are a slight favorite over the U.S., which won its first and only WBC title when the competition was last held in March 2017.
To understand why the Dominican squad is favored, simply scan the team’s roster: Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Rafael Devers, Nelson Cruz, Gary Sanchez and young phenoms Julio Rodríguez and Wander Franco — all will be swinging the bat for the Dominican Republic.
The pitching staff also is stacked with big leaguers, including reigning National League Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara of the Florida Marlins.
Despite that loaded roster, though, the Dominican team is far from an overwhelming favorite. That’s because Team USA also will field a lineup filled with MLB superstars.
That includes two former MVPs (Mike Trout and Mookie Betts), the reigning National League MVP (Paul Goldschmidt) and three multi-time All-Stars (Pete Alonso, Nolan Arenado and Trea Turner).
» READ MORE: Do the Phillies have any MVP contenders? Will they make the postseason? Here’s what the odds say.
Turner is one of three members of the NL champion Philadelphia Phillies who will compete for Team USA. The others: J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber.
Then there’s the squad from Japan, which is led by the modern-day Babe Ruth in Shohei Ohtani. But Japan is hardly a one-man gang, as multiple veterans of the country’s professional leagues also will play for the team. That includes Munetaka Murakami, the reigning MVP of the Nippon Professional Baseball league.
The Dominican Republic (+200 at FanDuel), Team USA (+280) and Japan (+300) are the clear-cut favorites to win the 2023 WBC.
Beyond the trio of favorites, only five of the remaining 17 countries have odds of less than +3500 (35-to-1) to win the two-week event.
However, the odds for those teams differ greatly by sportsbook.
FanDuel has Venezuela and South Korea (both +1000) tied for the fourth-shortest World Baseball Classic odds, followed by Mexico (+1800) and Puerto Rico (+2100).
However, at Caesars Sportsbook, Puerto Rico (+650) is slotted behind the Dominican Republic, U.S. and Japan. Then comes Venezuela (+1000), South Korea (+1200), Cuba (+1600) and Mexico (+1800).
World Baseball Classic odds: Cuba among ‘Final Four’ favorites
Like the World Cup and similar international sporting events, the WBC begins with round-robin play in multiple pools.
With this year’s tournament expanding from 16 to 20 teams for the first time since the WBC’s inception in 2006, five teams will compete in one of four pools at four different sites: Chinese Taipei (Pool A), Tokyo (Pool B), Phoenix (Pool C) and Miami (Pool D).
Following round-robin play, which begins March 7 with a Pool A game between Cuba and Netherlands in Chinese Taipei, the top two teams in each pool will advance to the quarterfinals. Those will take place in Tokyo on March 15-16 (Pools A and B) and in Miami on March 17-18 (Pools C and D).
Miami will then host the semifinals March 19-20, as well as the winner-take-all championship game on March 21.
FanDuel has posted odds on all four pool winners, as well as the two qualifiers from each pool.
Not shockingly, Japan (-600), the United States (-420) and Dominican Republic (-260) are odds-on favorites to win Pools B, C and D, respectively. Cuba (+115) gets the nod in Pool A, with Netherlands (+250) and Italy (+400) close behind.
Cuba (-280) and Netherlands (-150) are favored to come out of Pool A; Japan (-20000) and South Korea (-750) are favored in Pool B; U.S. (-2400) and Mexico (-300) in Pool C; and Dominican Republic (-1350) and Venezuela (-170) in Pool D.
» READ MORE: Underdog Phillies not expected to get back to World Series, nearly a coin flip just to make MLB playoffs
World Baseball Classic: Predictions
Forget about just qualifying for the quarterfinals or winning their respective pools; it would be downright stunning if the Dominican Republic, Team USA and Japan didn’t all reach the semifinals.
However, Pool A seems very much up for grabs.
While Cuba is rightly favored, three of the other countries in the pool — Netherlands, Italy and Chinese Taipei — are live underdogs.
Our money is on Italy at +400 at FanDuel. The Italians have a handful of big leaguers and fast-rising prospects, plus several players who compete in one of the top European baseball leagues.
Having Hall of Famer Mike Piazza managing Team Italy doesn’t hurt, either.
So which country will be the last standing? Again, it’s difficult to bet against the top three favorites. They’ve won the four previous WBC tournaments, and they’re all absolutely loaded again.
In the end, we’ll take the +300 odds FanDuel is offering on Japan, the 2006 and 2009 WBC champs.
Beyond Ohtani and Murakami, the Japanese have MLB-caliber talent up and down their roster. They also get to host Pool B in Tokyo and should have a stress-free path out of that pool, as only South Korea is a real threat.
Finally, with the way pool play is constructed, Japan won’t have to deal with either the Dominican Republic or the U.S. until at least the semifinals.
» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.