A bagel boom or a bagel bubble: How many shops does Philadelphia really need?

Philadelphia, apparently, needs more bagels.

Since the beginning of 2025, nearly a dozen bagel shops have opened or leased space in Philadelphia and its suburbs, bringing new locations from local operators as well as fast-growing out-of-town brands that see the region as fertile ground for expansion.

Kismet Bagels has opened its fourth and fifth shops, in Manayunk and Collingswood. Bart’s Bagels, which has shops in West Philadelphia and Bella Vista, recently expanded to the founders’ hometown of Bala Cynwyd. PopUp Bagels, the Connecticut-born chain that built a following on social media, made its local debut in Ardmore this spring and has signed a lease for a Rittenhouse shop as part of a larger regional expansion.

And Washington, D.C.-based Call Your Mother is preparing three soon-to-open Philadelphia locations — in Fishtown (due first), Rittenhouse, and Washington Square West — committing to all three before serving its first Philadelphia bagel.

That tally doesn’t include all of the stores that could follow. Florida-based Jeff’s Bagel Run has announced a 10-unit development agreement for Eastern and South Central Pennsylvania, while PopUp franchisee Brian Harrington is scouting additional territory in the Philadelphia suburbs.

All this raises an obvious question: How many bagels can Philadelphia eat?

Plenty, apparently — at least for now.

Jacob Cohen, who started Kismet six years ago with his wife, Alexandra, said the company has seen sales increase even as new bagel shops have entered the market. “I don’t think they’re just dividing the same customer base, because we’ve already had new shops open in Philadelphia and we haven’t seen a decrease in sales,” Cohen said.

But Cohen, who rapidly expanded Kismet before putting the brakes on growth earlier this year, also sees a limit. “More is not always better,” he said. “I obviously don’t have a crystal ball, but I have a feeling that some of these private-equity bagel companies coming are going to learn that the hard way.”

Philadelphia is part of a much broader bagel boom. The U.S. bagel market generated an estimated $3.17 billion in revenue in 2025 and is projected to reach $4.51 billion by 2033, according to Grand View Research, a market-research firm. That represents annual growth of about 4.6%. Worldwide, the firm values the bagel market at $5.8 billion in 2025 and projects it will reach $8.6 billion by 2033.

Mike Kostyo, vice president of Menu Matters, a Vermont-based food-industry consulting firm, sees the current surge as the convergence of several trends rather than the sudden discovery of a new food. Artisan baked goods have been rising in popularity for years, he said, after the pandemic produced a generation of home bakers and pop-ups experimenting with sourdough and bagels. At the same time, café culture and the rise of the “little treat” have made consumers more willing to spend on premium versions of everyday foods.

“At its core, the bagel has always been a blank canvas for lots of flavors and toppings,” Kostyo said. “But now, instead of sesame seeds, you see them topped with Flamin’ Hot Cheetos.”

The traditional formula — bagels by the dozen, cream cheese, lox, and coffee — also has evolved into something closer to a breakfast-and-lunch fast-casual restaurant.

Bagels become vehicles for egg sandwiches, smoked salmon, avocado, specialty cream cheeses, and elaborate combinations that can command substantially more than a plain bagel and schmear. And operators increasingly are looking beyond breakfast.

“The sandwich factor is so important,” Kostyo said. “You need something that you can sell across multiple occasions, not just to commuters in the morning.”

That versatility helps explain why investors have noticed.

“Investors are always looking for that next category that could blow up,” Kostyo said. “They want Call Your Mother or PopUp Bagels to be the next 7 Brew or Dutch Bros.”

Some of the brands now expanding grew directly out of the pandemic.

The Cohens started Kismet as a pandemic project before turning it into a brick-and-mortar business and eventually growing to five locations — down from seven after the company shuttered a stand at Reading Terminal Market in 2025 and closed a shop in Ventnor earlier this year.

PopUp followed a similar trajectory. Founder Adam Goldberg began baking bagels at home during the pandemic and developed the idea into a business built around an unusually stripped-down concept: hot bagels and schmears, rather than the sprawling sandwich menus associated with many modern bagel shops.

Customers are encouraged to “grip, rip, and dip,” tearing apart the bagels and dipping them into containers of cream cheese.

The company’s first Philadelphia-area shop opened in the spring in Suburban Square in Ardmore. Harrington, the franchisee developing PopUp in this region, said sales have remained strong even through the summer.

“We anticipated a little bit of pullback with a lot of our core [teen] clientele getting jobs in Avalon and down the Shore, and with vacations and things like that,” Harrington said. “But it’s been very, very steady.”

In more than 25 years in the restaurant business, Harrington said, he has typically seen sales soften in late June, July, and early August. “We’ve not seen that,” he said.

PopUp has signed for the former Starbucks at 1709 Chestnut St. in Rittenhouse, as reported by the Philadelphia Business Journal. Harrington said he has a deal for a location in Lawrence Township, N.J., near Princeton, that is awaiting its permits. Another South Jersey deal is close, he said, and he sees additional potential in Montgomery County.

Despite the influx of bagel shops, Harrington said he believes PopUp occupies a somewhat different niche.

“We’re not making sandwiches,” he said. “So far, people have found us and enjoyed the way that we do it, and it doesn’t preclude them from going and getting a bacon, egg, and cheese somewhere else.”

Call Your Mother is making an even larger initial bet on Philadelphia. Founded in Washington in 2018 by Andrew Dana and his wife, chef Daniela Moreira, the self-described “Jew-ish” deli has expanded beyond the Washington area as New York investment firm Invus acquired a majority stake in the company in January 2025.

Call Your Mother has signed three Philadelphia leases: 1500 Frankford Ave. in Fishtown, the former Metropolitan Bakery at 262 S. 19th St. near Rittenhouse Square, and 12th and Sansom Streets in Washington Square West. Dana said the decision to enter Philadelphia was considerably less scientific than the three-store commitment might suggest.

“My mom grew up there, my grandparents lived there, and I’ve been there so much visiting my friends,” Dana said. “I’ve been in Fishtown on a Sunday when it’s popping, and I’ve been in Rittenhouse Square when it’s super-crowded on the weekend and the market’s going. A lot of it is just gut and feel.”

Dana does not believe Philadelphia lacks good bagels. On a recent trip, he tried Bart’s and came away impressed.

“I think a lot of people are doing a great product in Philadelphia,” he said, “but there’s always room for a different bagel shop. At least I hope so.”

Dana also rejects the idea that taking investment inevitably leads to runaway growth or declining quality.

He described Invus as “patient capital” and said the investment agreement carries no requirement that Call Your Mother open a prescribed number of stores.

“We’re going to do what we can do while still keeping the quality of the food and the service top-notch,” Dana said. “And if that ever slips, we have the ability to hit the pause button.”

For some Philadelphia bagel operators, however, the arrival of heavily financed brands is cause for skepticism.

Cohen, at Kismet, is particularly wary.

“I think it’s the rare exception when private equity marries itself to a food brand and they continue to do good things,” he said. “I’d like to keep private equity out of bagels.”

He stressed that Kismet remains owned solely by him and Alexandra, financed through bank loans rather than outside investors.

David Fine, owner of Schmear Bagel Parlor, is also watching the expansion. Fine entered the business in 2013 with his Schmear It food truck and has since acquired the shops owned by Philly Bagels, giving the company eight locations in Philadelphia.

Fine said those stores have not appeared to steal business from one another.

He thinks part of the bagel’s appeal is almost mundane: It is familiar, relatively accessible, portable, and infinitely customizable.

“They’re comfort food at their very core, and they can really appeal to such a wide variety of customers,” he said.

He is less certain about the economics behind the rapid expansion of some competitors.

“The buildouts are expensive,” Fine said. “You have to be quite profitable for quite some time just to recoup that investment.”

Schmear is expanding, too, Fine said, renovating its original brick-and-mortar location at 36th and Market Streets. But he believes that being local gives the company an advantage as more national and regional shops arrive.

“There’s a keen allegiance to local brands,” Fine said.

Bagels also have another quality particularly suited to the moment: They look good on a phone.

Kostyo points to the now-familiar image of a bagel sandwich sliced in half and held toward the camera, its fillings and schmear exposed.

“The visual factor is also so important in today’s social media age,” he said. “That picture ... is the type of indulgent food that people go out of their way for today.”

The lines themselves become part of the marketing. A crowd outside a shop signals that the food is worth leaving home for, he said, while arguments over the proper density, crust, schmear, toppings, and even whether a respectable bagel can be made outside New York keep the category in the conversation.

“In the end, it’s all advertising and marketing,” Kostyo said.

But social media enthusiasm is fickle — witness the rise and fall of cookies and cupcakes — and Kostyo sees the flood of investment and expansion as carrying the seeds of an eventual shakeout.

“This is a pretty classic bubble where some of these brands that are doing a great job and really resonate with people will survive, but a lot will overexpand and shut down in the next few years,” he said.

Cohen, meanwhile, has decided not to test Kismet’s limits.

After years of opening shops, Kismet entered 2026 determined to improve what it already has rather than add more locations. The company is focusing on consistency, profitability, new products, employees, and customers, he said.

He is happy to see Philadelphia’s bagel culture growing and says he does not regard every new shop as a competitor. Years ago, Cohen recalled, Inquirer restaurant critic Craig LaBan told him Philadelphia that did not have enough bagels per capita.

“We might be starting to get there now,” Cohen said.