Flipping the playbook | PA 2024 Newsletter

📅 There are 52 days until Election Day.

In this edition:

—Julia Terruso, Fallon Roth, Sean Collins Walsh, Katie Bernard, Layla A. Jones, Oona Goodin-Smith pa2024@inquirer.com

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National politics reporter Julia Terruso looks at how Harris went on the offensive during the debate:

For months, Trump has tried to portray Harris as a weak leader. And for at least some swing voters, the narrative stuck.

“She’s mousey, and I worry people are gonna walk all over her,” said Marian Foose, a cleaner and undecided voter in Northeastern Pennsylvania.

Say what you want about the lack of policy discussion on stage Tuesday night, but stylistically, Harris delivered an offensive that cut against the “weak” label that Trump has tried to tag her with — from initiating the handshake to telling him Putin “will eat your lunch.”

It remains to be seen how, if at all, the debate moves the stubbornly deadlocked race — and some were unhappy with Harris’ answers on the economy and her explanation of her shifting stances.

But on Tuesday night, Harris flipped Trump’s playbook by attacking him with some of the language he’d used against her. Even some Pennsylvania Republicans acknowledged she “had him on his heels.”

“It is very well known that Donald Trump is weak and wrong on national security and foreign policy,” she said. “It is well known that he admires dictators, wants to be a dictator on day one, according to himself.”

“...The leaders of other countries think that they’re weak and incompetent,” Trump shot back. “And they are. They’re grossly incompetent.”

Trump’s brand of MAGA hypermasculinity is well-known by now. Harris doesn’t often reference the historic nature of her candidacy — the first woman of color to lead a major party’s presidential ticket — but she is up against the same misconceptions about women and weakness that have been around for centuries. And whether she wins or loses could come down to Pennsylvania, a state where a woman has never been elected governor or senator.

“Is she tough enough? Are you kidding me?” said U.S. Rep. Madeleine Dean (D., Pa.) in the spin room on Tuesday, responding to Trump’s characterization of Harris.

“As a prosecutor, as a senator … she shows the toughness, but what I love is the balance. She has toughness, but she also has humanity and humor and warmth. So, women shouldn’t be boxed into this notion of, are you tough enough? We’re tough enough.”

🪧 As the debate proceeded inside the National Constitution Center — and watch parties across the city reacted — hundreds protested outside. Police and pro-Palestinian demonstrators calling for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war clashed, and several people were detained.

🇵🇱 From the debate stage, Harris made an unexpected shout-out to a historically reliable Democratic voting bloc: Pennsylvania’s Polish Americans.

🐈 Berks County native Taylor Swift gave Harris her post-debate endorsement — a call to action that brought nearly half a million visitors to the federal voting registration site. Trump appeared to shake it off, suggesting the pop star will “probably pay a price.” And groups like Swifties for Kamala say they’re just getting started.

✖️ As Trump visited Shanksville the next day commemorating the 9/11 anniversary, he insisted he had won the debate — contending Harris’ desire to do it all again was proof he’d won. On Thursday, he doubled down, posting: “THERE WILL BE NO THIRD DEBATE!”

🔵 It’s not just Philly’s suburbs that have shifted left. Suburbs of smaller cities, like Harrisburg, are also key to either party’s chances of winning the White House — and, said one Lower Allen commissioner, “the ideological shift might be happening more rapidly than I think we were expecting.”

🔄 After flipping Pennsylvania’s state House in 2022, Democrats have their eyes set on expanding that majority. Gov. Josh Shapiro endorsed a handful of candidates in Southeastern Pennsylvania, where Democrats believe they can oust the Republican incumbents.

🏳️‍🌈 In Delaware, State Sen. Sarah McBride on Tuesday won the Democratic primary for the U.S. House of Representatives, positioning her to make history in November as the first openly transgender person elected to Congress.

The claim: “In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs, the people that came in, they’re eating the cats. They’re eating the pets of the people that live there.” — Trump during Tuesday night’s debate.

✖️ The check: False.

During Tuesday’s debate, Trump claimed that migrants were eating residents’ pets in Springfield, Ohio, repeating a false story that has made the rounds in conservative media. ABC News moderator David Muir stepped in to correct Trump, noting that the Springfield city manager has said there are no verified accounts of that happening. Trump did not back down from the false claim, saying he saw “people on television” who said their dogs were taken and “used for food.”

The claim: “An interview by Tucker Carlson of an election expert indicates that 20% of the Mail-In Ballots in Pennsylvania are fraudulent.” — Trump in a Truth Social post.

✖️ The check: False.

Trump posted on Sunday that 20% of Pennsylvania’s mail ballots were fraudulent. There is no evidence of widespread voter fraud in Pennsylvania. Mail ballots for November’s election have not yet gone out. In 2020, Trump’s loss in the state was driven by Joe Biden’s dominance with mail ballots. Democrats were more likely to vote by mail that year because Trump had already made false claims to his supporters that mail was an unsafe way to vote. Voting by mail is safe and secure and, according to the Pennsylvania Department of State, involves several layers of security checks.

The claim: “Donald Trump left us the worst unemployment since the Great Depression.” — Harris during Tuesday night’s debate.

✖️ The check: False.

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment spiked to 14.8% in April 2020. That was likely the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression — when it peaked around 25% — according to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics. And it was definitely the highest unemployment rate since data collection began in 1948, the Congressional Research Service said in a report. But by the time Trump left office, Biden and Harris were left with a recovering, albeit not fully restored, economy. The unemployment rate was just above 6% by January 2021, the month of Biden’s inauguration. As of August 2024, the national unemployment rate was 4.2%.

🎤 We’re now passing the mic to our colleague, data reporter Aseem Shukla, to talk about why Pennsylvania voters without college degrees are souring on Democrats:

🎓 Going to college in America famously gives you a lot: higher earning power, access to frat parties, crippling student debt. Oh, and also: liberal political views.

Political scientists have long found that going to college makes people more socially liberal. But that didn’t always mean likelier to vote Democratic — there used to be lots of liberal Republicans, too.

In recent years, that’s changed in a big way. Not only are college-educated people increasingly gravitating towards Democrats, but the reverse is also happening: People without college degrees, regardless of race or location, are moving away from the Democratic Party.

Our analysis of the precinct-level vote from 2016 to 2020 shows this was a big trend in Pennsylvania: On average, the most college-educated 20% of precincts netted an average of 86 more votes for Biden in 2020 than for Hillary Clinton in 2016. By contrast, the least-educated 20% averaged 32 votes fewer.

Why? Political scientists say that an increasingly urban and liberal Democratic party tends increasingly to address the interests of educated professionals, and ignore or take for granted working-class concerns. Likewise, working-class voters of all stripes tend to be more conservative, and perhaps even see Trump’s Republican party as more muscular in its assertion of American identity.

If those trends continue apace this year, Harris could have more to lose than Trump. After all, only 33% of Pennsylvanians have college degrees.

📈 Linsey Davis: If you thought Philadelphia couldn’t have been more represented on the debate stage Tuesday, think again. Davis, who helped guide Harris and Trump through their 90-minute clash, hails from South Jersey’s Moorestown. Davis, World News Tonight Sunday anchor, and David Muir, World News Tonight anchor, co-moderated the debate. And Davis delivered one of the more blunt fact-checks of the evening after Trump falsely claimed that Democratic VP nominee Tim Walz said “execution after birth… is OK.” To this, Davis said: “There is no state in this country where it’s legal to kill a baby after it’s born.”

📉 Jake Tapper: The famous CNN anchor and Philly native returned to Philadelphia ahead of the presidential debate. But Tapper just couldn’t seem to find a place to indulge in one of the city’s great delicacies — cheesesteaks, of course — at Reading Terminal Market. Wandering around the market shortly before closing time, Spataro’s sign was off, and Molly Malloy’s had an upcoming private event. The quest continued on before he finally got a cheesesteak with provolone, onions, and peppers (he’s not “a big Cheez Whiz guy”) at By George. Tapper then left the market, but not before saying “Go Phillies, go Birds.”

➡️ Harris is back in Pennsylvania today, while Trump is heading west.

As always, thanks for reading. We’ll catch you here next week — same time, same place. 👋