How will Walz play in Pennsylvania? | PA 2024 Newsletter

📅 There are 87 days until Election Day.

Hello, and welcome to the first edition of the PA 2024 newsletter! The last week of national politics in Pennsylvania felt like a month, and Philadelphia was at the center of it all when Gov. Josh Shapiro came up just short of joining Vice President Kamala Harris on the Democratic ticket, and hours later joined her and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on a stage at Temple University. Former President Donald Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, was here, too, for his first Pennsylvania campaign stop — though some say he needs to work on his stage design.

We’re excited to bring you along on the campaign trail over the next three months. Each Friday from now until Election Day, we’ll be in your inbox, delivering the latest news, analysis, and what we hear and see in Pennsylvania as our reporters cover the candidates, campaigns, issues, and voters in our backyard.

In this edition:

🗳️Inside Harris’ decision to pass over Josh Shapiro as her VP pick

🗳️A look at the legal challenges to Harris on the ballot

🗳️What happened after Philadelphia’s mayor posted a video backing Shapiro

—Julia Terruso, Sean Collins Walsh, Katie Bernard, Anna Orso, Oona Goodin-Smith (pa2024@inquirer.com)

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It could have been awkward that Shapiro lost the veepstakes and then had to put on a gracious face on his turf for an audience of his hometown fans. But the crowd at the Liacouras Center gave both Shapiro and Walz an enthusiastic greeting on Tuesday, and even Shapiro’s most fervent supporters publicly praised the pick.

Behind the scenes though, there was some hand-wringing among the Democratic map strategists and the donor class, wary of how essential Pennsylvania is, and wondering if Walz could really help more than Shapiro in the critical commonwealth.

“You always root for your home state,” Alan Kessler, a fundraiser in the state, told us. “Quite frankly the last four years and while [President Joe Biden] was VP, we had someone essentially from Pennsylvania.”

Walz can’t speak the language of the Eagles and going down the Shore, but he does have the small-town coach vibes that Democrats think can connect in parts of the state where Biden boosted numbers. (Granted, the data doesn’t suggest a VP pick does much to move the needle.)

Still, some Pennsylvania Republicans were ready to send “thank you” cards to Harris when they found out she passed over Shapiro. The Trump campaign sees a clear opening now to cast the ticket as two liberal politicians from blue states.

The Harris campaign’s response to that: Look at the smiling, unassuming guy in the camo hat.

“This is the most normal, just ‘get s— done’ kind of person we could have joining the ticket,” senior Harris adviser Brendan McPhillips said.

🇺🇸 In Walz, Harris ultimately saw a better governing partner than the ambitious Shapiro, who had intentionally taken a more backseat approach to campaigning for the vice presidential pick, people familiar with the vetting process said. According to one Shapiro ally: “I think there will be a lot of second-guessing on how he handled this.”

1️⃣ Although he didn’t get the job, Shapiro’s time in the national spotlight as a top VP contender was quite the resume boost, and now his path could go in several directions. “He’s not a No. 2,” said a person with knowledge of his interview with Harris’ team. “He just didn’t fit the assignment.”

🪧 To put it lightly, Philadelphians are known for being passionate about their home teams. So when Harris picked Walz over Abington son Shapiro, some of his allies openly admitted they were bummed. Still, although there were no reports of greased poles being climbed, Shapiro loyalists vowed to campaign aggressively for the Harris-Walz ticket, saying they’re “fired up to elect Madam President Kamala Harris.”

🤝 That perhaps began this week, when Harris and Walz were met with an enthusiastic start to their swing-state tour in Philly, as thousands of cheering rallygoers wore light-up bracelets reminiscent of a Taylor Swift concert. At Temple, Harris doubled down on her commitment to winning the Keystone State, giving Shapiro a shout-out. “I am so, so invested in our friendship in doing this together,” she said, “because together with Josh Shapiro, we will win Pennsylvania.”

🎤 Shapiro’s name came up across town, too, when Vance held a dueling rally in South Philly, saying Harris had bowed to her party’s left wing in choosing Walz over Pennsylvania’s governor. Still, Vance pledged to debate Walz, but only after he was officially named VP nominee by the Democratic National Committee later this month.

🔑 It’s no coincidence Philadelphia was at the center of the political universe this week, as the state and region are likely to play a pivotal role in the 2024 election. And although Trump is unlikely to carry any of Philly’s now-solidly blue collar counties, suburban Republicans say they’re looking to improve their margins. Said one Montco party leader: “We’re not just looking at ‘24.”

👀 Eyes are also on central Pennsylvania, where Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry is being challenged by a centrist Republican-turned-Democrat former TV news anchor. Experts say the seat may be “flippable.”

📈 Tim Walz: The folksy high school football coach-turned-Minnesota governor made his campaign trail debut in Philadelphia, and he seemed to be everything Harris was hoping for. Walz appears ready to capitalize on his Midwestern dad vibes to secure the Rust Belt for the Democrats. But as a relative dark horse in the VP race, he is now facing the scrutiny of being a national political figure for the first time, and the critiques are sure to come. By Wednesday, he was already facing criticism over his 24-year military record from Vance, who served in Iraq in a non-combat role.

📈 Josh Shapiro: It’s safe to safe our first-term governor now has a national brand, a key first step if he’s going to win the White House himself one day. It wasn’t all pretty for Shapiro. He took jabs from public education advocates, women’s groups, progressives, and others. But he’s officially on the big stage now.

📉 JD Vance: There’s plenty of time for him to recover, but at the moment, there seems to be bipartisan agreement that Vance’s entrance into the 2024 campaign hasn’t gone well for him or Trump. Vance has been criticized for past comments about “childless cat ladies.” He has given speeches in front of signage that implies he’s either getting fired by the Trump campaign or, in the case of his South Philly appearance, accidentally rooting for Harris. And Walz has essentially built a national profile based on burns – some baseless – directed at Vance.

📉 Cherelle L. Parker: A week ago, the Philadelphia mayor sent the internet into a frenzy after her campaign published a video that seemed to imply she was announcing that Shapiro had already been selected as Harris’ running mate. As the world now knows, that was never the case, and Parker was just trying to promote her home state governor’s chances. That may have ended up backfiring, as sources said that the video didn’t go over well with the Harris camp.

✉️ We always appreciate hearing from our readers, and answering your questions when we can. Last week, reader Carol Vinatieri emailed us to ask about the possible legal challenges to Harris being on the ballot.

The answer: Legal challenges to Harris’ spot on the ballot are likely, but that doesn’t mean they’ll succeed. Even before Biden suspended his reelection campaign, Republicans floated legal challenges to force his name onto the ballot. Those challenges have not yet materialized in Pennsylvania, but if they do, legal experts have said they’re unlikely to hold water here, or anywhere else.

The Democratic National Committee scheduled an early virtual vote earlier this week in an effort to make any legal contest’s already slim chances even smaller. Harris became the party’s official nominee earlier this week, before any state’s ballot access deadline had passed.

In Pennsylvania, the Democratic Party just needed to finalize its nominee in time for mail ballots to be sent by Oct. 22.

📮Do you have a question about this election? Email us back and we’ll try to answer it in a future newsletter.

What she said: During Harris’ rally in Philly, Parker opened with a story about being a young girl and tearfully telling a neighbor that her parents were fighting. She said she got a lashing from her grandmother, who told her: “No matter what goes on in this house, you don’t ever go outside telling anybody.”

“Democrats, we must take a page out of my grandmother’s book, that domestic worker from South Carolina, and remember that our Democratic nominee has spoken, and that’s it. Period, end of story,” Parker said.

What she meant: “I wanted Josh to be veep, but I won’t discuss it again. You shouldn’t either. At least not in public.”

➡️ The rest of the Harris-Walz and Vance swing-state tours, as the campaigns spar with each other and Tropical Storm Debby.

➡️ Whether independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be allowed on the Pennsylvania ballot, where he could affect a tight race.

➡️ Who from Pennsylvania will speak at the Democratic National Convention, which begins later this month in Chicago. Shapiro has already said he expects to address the delegates.

What a week it’s been, and the election season is only ramping up. You can follow our latest politics coverage here, and we’ll see you in your inbox next Friday. 👋