Even with Sasser injury, count on Houston to reach the Final Four out of the Midwest region

The Houston Cougars have been a chic pick to win the national championship since before the college basketball season began way back in early November.

And we were among those early jumpers on the Cougars’ bandwagon.

So the fact that Houston is the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region and a solid favorite to play in the Final Four in its backyard isn’t surprising. However, the Cougars’ path to that Final Four just got a lot bumpier — all because of a pesky groin injury.

Here’s a look at odds to win the Midwest Region and how we’re attacking it from a wagering perspective.

Odds via FanDuel and updated as of 12:30 a.m. ET on March 14.

Houston coach Kelvin Sampson could not have scripted the 2022-23 season any better.

His Cougars went 12-1 in nonconference play, the only slip-up being a 71-65 home loss to Alabama — a team that would go on to win the SEC regular season and tournament championships and claim the NCAA Tournament No. 1 overall seed.

Then Houston went 17-1 in the American Athletic Conference regular season while spending multiple weeks ranked No. 1 in the traditional Top 25 poll, the KenPom rankings and the NCAA NET rankings. (The Cougars are still No. 1 in the latter two).

Houston then cruised through its first two AAC Tournament contests, reaching the title game with Saturday’s 69-48 win over Cincinnati. But that victory came at a potentially big price: Senior guard and leading scorer Marcus Sasser left the court with a groin injury after playing only nine minutes.

Sasser, who averaged 17.1 points per game and shot a team-best 38.2% from 3-point range in the regular season, sat out Sunday’s tournament finale against Memphis.

Needless to say, his presence was missed, as the Cougars fell flat in a 75-65 loss to Memphis as a 5.5-point favorite.

Sasser’s status for Thursday’s opening-round game against No. 16 seed Northern Kentucky is in doubt. And while the Cougars surely won’t need him in that one, they likely will if they’re going to reach a second Final Four in the last three years.

» READ MORE: East Region: Bet on Duke to emerge and get back to the Final Four

It’s hard not to like the way the Nittany Lions are playing right now.

Penn State last week became the first double-digit seed in the 25-year history of the Big Ten Tournament to reach the championship game (doing so for the first time in school history). Once there, the Nittany Lions engaged in a 40-minute dogfight with Purdue (East Region No. 1 seed). Trailing by most of the game, they battled back from multiple double-digit deficits — including digging out of a 17-point hole with 6½ minutes to play.

Penn State even had a chance to win the game or send it to overtime, but a turnover with less than a second to play sealed a 67-65 loss.

So what makes this team a bona fide sleeper in the Midwest? They’re led by two veterans (senior forward Seth Lundy and senior guard Jalen Pickett, who average a combined 33.5 ppg). They’re on a roll (8-2 last 10 games). And they have experience in close games — a lot of experience.

To wit: Penn State’s last eight contests have been decided by 4, 3, 3 (in OT), 1, 3, 2 (in OT), 4 and 2 points. The Nittany Lions won six of those nail-biters.

Without question, coach Micha Shrewberry’s team deserved better than a No. 10 seed and a brutal first-round matchup with Texas A&M. But it’s a winnable game for Penn State — just as pretty much every game has been lately for this frisky bunch.

» READ MORE: Five best strategies and tips to help you win your NCAA Tournament pool

We took a shot with Iowa State to win the Big 12 Tournament and were feeling pretty good about that bet after a 78-72 upset of Baylor in the quarterfinals.

Then came a semifinal matchup against Kansas, and the Cyclones’ inconsistent offense reared its ugly head again in a 71-58 loss.

Iowa State has now lost five straight games, seven of nine and nine of 11 to opponents not named Baylor. During this stretch, the Cyclones have scored 61 points or fewer six times. Take out back-to-back wins against Baylor — one in the Big 12 tourney, one on the road to end the regular season — and Iowa State has averaged just 61.8 points in its last nine away from home. That includes an 80-77 overtime loss at Texas Tech.

Clearly, the Cyclones are trending in the wrong direction. Throw in an offense that runs hot and cold — and often turns downright freezing outside of Ames, Iowa — and it’s difficult to recommend betting on this team.

If Iowa State gets past the winner of Tuesday’s Mississippi State-Pitt clash in the First Four — hardly a given — it likely will meet its match against No. 3 seed Xavier on Saturday.

» READ MORE: Here's an upset pick for each region as the NCAA Tournament gets underway

No surprise that we’re going with this one.

Like Penn State in the Big Ten, Texas A&M made a run to the SEC Tournament championship game. And like Penn State, the Aggies came up short Sunday against an NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed — they lost 82-63 to Alabama.

That blowout aside, Texas A&M has been playing terrific basketball — the team is 19-4 since Christmas.

As prolific as Penn State is from beyond the arc (38.9%, 12th best in Division 1) and as good as the Aggies are defensively (40.0% opponents field goal rate, 17th best in the nation), this should be a fun one from opening tip to final buzzer.

» READ MORE: Will Alabama cut down the nets in Houston? See our predictions for March Madness

If you saw our first-round upsets recommendations, you know that we think there’s a ton of value on Kent State in its opening-round battle with Indiana.

The Golden Flashes (28-6) bring a six-game winning streak into March Madness. As for their six losses, half were by a total of 14 points against College of Charleston (East Region No. 5 seed), Gonzaga (West Region No. 3 seed) and Houston.

Indiana swept Purdue in their season series, so it’s not like the Hoosiers are a pushover. And forward Trayce Jackson-Davis (24.0 ppg) has the talent to take over any game against any opponent.

But Indiana (4-4 last eight) has been riding a roller coaster. If the Hoosiers don’t bring their A-game, Kent State absolutely can become the seventh No. 13 seed since 2016 to win a first-round game.

We’ve come this far with the Cougars, so we’re not about to bail on them now.

Of course, the Sasser injury is a massive concern. But even if he doesn’t play this weekend, Houston should be able to get through to the Sweet 16. After all, Sasser suffered a season-ending injury 12 games into last season and the Cougars made it all the way to the Elite Eight.

Obviously, groins can be tricky. But we’d expect Sasser back on the court at least by the Sweet 16 — that would give him 11 full days of rest.

Another reason we’re sticking with Houston: We don’t believe in No. 2 seed Texas as much as many others do — the Longhorns were too shaky away from their home court for our liking.

No. 3 seed Xavier also has consistency issues and often is immune to playing defense (not a good trait in March).

Beyond that, we don’t see any team that can beat Houston — with or without Sasser. So we’ll continue to roll the dice with the Cougars.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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