Sweet 16 predictions: Bet on underdog Miami to cover big spread vs. Houston

Houston and Miami were far from perfect during their first two NCAA Tournament games. In fact, each needed a second-half rally to survive.

But survive they did, and now the top-seeded Cougars and No. 5 seed Hurricanes are set to collide Friday in Kansas City, site of the Midwest Region’s Sweet 16.

The winner will move on to the Elite Eight for a second straight year and keep alive its hopes for a first national championship.

If you believe the betting odds, that winner very likely will be Houston. The Hurricanes, of course, would beg to differ.

Frankly, so do we — at least when it comes to the significant point spread.

Odds updated as of 12:30 p.m. ET on March 23.

This is a bit of a tough call, as we picked Houston to win the Midwest Region prior to the start of the Tournament. But we also successfully backed Miami in its first two games against No. 12 seed Drake and No. 4 Indiana.

Granted, we needed a 16-1 game-ending run to get the cash with the Canes in the opening round against Drake. And we needed the Cougars to overcome a double-digit halftime lead against No. 9 Auburn in the Round of 32 to advance to the second weekend of March Madness.

So what has us leaning in Miami’s direction for a third straight game? Quite simply, the point spread in this Sweet 16 contest seems inflated — like at least 3 points inflated.

The Hurricanes are 27-7 on the season, including 11-2 since Jan. 31. One of the two recent losses was inexcusable, as Miami blew a 23-point halftime lead to lowly Florida State and lost 85-84 on a buzzer beater at home.

The other was quite excusable: Leading rebounder and third-leading scorer Norchad Omier went down with an ankle injury one minute into an ACC Tournament semifinal game against Duke, never returned and the Canes lost 85-78.

It’s important, though, to focus on that seven-point margin of defeat against the Blue Devils. Because it’s the worst loss Miami has suffered since falling 88-70 to Maryland in a preseason tournament in Connecticut way back on Nov. 20.

And that ugly showing against the Terps — who somehow made 30 of 50 shots that day — was the Canes’ first defeat of the season.

In between the 18-point loss to Maryland and 7-point loss to Duke, Miami came out on the short end just five times: 76-70 at Georgia Tech (another inexcusable loss); 83-81 at North Carolina State in overtime; 68-66 at Duke; 71-68 at Pitt (a game the Canes led 68-60 with 2:30 to play); and the 85-84 loss to Florida State.

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That’s five defeats by a total of 14 points.

So why is Houston such a big favorite Friday? Probably because the Hurricanes struggled to score against defensive-minded Drake in their first-round game last week — they had just 47 points in the first 35 minutes of action.

Drake ranks 35th in the country in scoring defense (63.9 points per game), 25th in field-goal defense (40.5%) and 30th in 3-point defense (30.7%).

Houston ranks second (56.6 ppg), first (36.1%) and second (27.4%) in the same three categories.

The Cougars’ defense was nearly flawless in the opening round against No. 16 seed Northern Kentucky, which shot 19-for-69 overall and 5-for-33 from 3-point range. And it was downright dominant in the second half against Auburn, which scored just 23 points in the final 20 minutes.

In the first half, though, the Tigers went off for 41 points in building a 10-point halftime lead. This is the same Auburn that last month scored 54 points at Kentucky and 43 at Tennessee — over a full 40 minutes.

If Miami’s best shooters — ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong and fellow guard Jordan Miller — are locked in and perform like they did against Indiana (combined 18-for-33), the Canes will hang around for the entire game.

But if Wong and Miller chuck up bricks like they did against Drake (combined 3-for-17)? Houston will hand the Canes their worst loss since Maryland.

Obviously, we’re expecting something closer to the former than the latter. And if the 137.5-point Over/Under in this contest proves to be somewhat accurate, Miami will have to tally roughly 65 points to cover the spread.

Number of times Miami has been held under 65 points in its 34 games? Once — against Drake.

Throw in the fact that the betting market has been off on Houston for months — the Cougars are in a 7-12 ATS slump, covering in consecutive games just once — and we’ll grab the points with undervalued Miami, which is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this year (five outright wins).

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