Eagles’ win total number is all the way up to 12.5. Should you buy or sell?

It wasn’t long ago we were advising you to take the extra juice on the over 9.5 wins for the Philadelphia Eagles during the 2022 NFL regular season.

A revamped defense and the addition of A.J. Brown at wide receiver were big reasons the win total jumped from opening at 8.5 up to 9.5.

Now, just three weeks into the NFL season, the Eagles are one of just two undefeated teams remaining. The 3-0 start has done a lot of things in the betting world. Heading into Week 4, the Eagles are favorites to win the NFC and reach the Super Bowl. Nick Sirianni is now the favorite to win the Coach of the Year award.

And, of course, that win total is on the move... big time. It’s all the way up to 12.5 at Caesars Sportsbook and elsewhere.

That 12.5 win total is matched by only the Bills at Caesars. As of Wednesday night, the over 12.5 for the Eagles was at -105, and the under at -115.

Why’d it go up so much?

Obviously, bettors have contributed to the movement. That trend started before the season at Caesars, where the Eagles had the second-most amount of action on “to make the playoffs” plays behind only New Orleans. Before the season started, Caesars had seen 88.6% of the tickets and 90.7% of the handle come in on the “over” for wins.

But also contributing to the increase — and likely the confidence in bettors — is how good the Eagles have looked so far. They were, of course, expected to win these three games. They were favored in every contest, and were projected to be favored in all of them before the season at sportsbooks, like Caesars, who had early odds posted beyond Week 1.

The defense, however, likely looks better than even the most biased Eagles fans could have imagined. And Jalen Hurts, while expected him to take a leap, looks like a real Most Valuable Player candidate.

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All of this goes without mentioning their schedule, which, we wrote about heading into the season, was the biggest reason to be confident in the over. But that was when the number was at 9.5 wins.

What about now?

The schedule, obviously, has not changed. The Eagles are big favorites to get to 4-0 this weekend after hosting the Jaguars.

My Inquirer colleague David Murphy summed it up perfectly during our live blog Monday following Sunday’s win over the Commanders.

“After Week 4, the Eagles will face six straight teams who (entered) Monday with one or zero wins. After the Jags is a Cardinals team that has looked atrocious through three weeks, followed by a Cowboys team with a backup quarterback, followed by Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers, followed by the 0-2-1 Texans,” Murphy wrote.

“The Eagles’ schedule finally enters an interesting stretch on Nov. 20 with a road game in Indianapolis followed by a home game against a Packers team that figures to be one of their biggest challengers for the No. 1 overall seed.

“It should really be impossible for this team to go worse than 12-5, with 15-2 in play and 13-4 or 14-3 looking like the most probable outcomes.”

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To get to 13 wins, and hit the current over, the Eagles would have to go 10-4 the rest of the way. Looking at the schedule, it’s hard to find more than four losses coming their way, even being conservative with a few game predictions.

Is that enough to hammer the over? Not quite. The betting market has obviously tilted in Philly’s favor, but let’s not get crazy. The Eagles have played three games, and two of them have been against teams that won’t sniff the playoffs.

The problem with waiting to see more, however, is that you’re gonna be waiting a bit. Beating Jacksonville this weekend will do little to change how anyone should view the Eagles. Maybe beating Kyler Murray and the Cardinals next week would be a little more telling.

If I had to lean one way, it’d be on the over. Staying healthy is a big part of all of this, but if the Eagles stay healthy, it’s really hard to imagine they lose five games the rest of the way. Their opponents are just that dreadful.

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The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.