The Phillies’ playoff chances are complicated by one of MLB’s toughest remaining schedules
There’s a decent chance that this week ends up deciding the Phillies' fate.
The biggest reason to wonder about the Phillies’ playoff chances isn’t their pitching or the heart of their lineup.
It’s their schedule.
Only five teams in the majors will play a tougher slate than the one the Phillies face from here on out. Of their 37 remaining games, only 12 will come against teams that entered Sunday with a losing record. The Phillies have won about 60.5% of their games against losing teams. Even if they take two of three in each of those four series, they would need to go 15-10 against winning teams in order to reach 90 wins. They are 23-30 against such teams.
Maybe it’s a stretch to say that Alec Bohm saved the Phillies season when he hit a three-run home run in the eighth inning to lift them to a 7-5 win over the Twins on Sunday. But they are at a point of their season where they desperately need to stack up wins. At the very least, Bohm’s blast put them back on the safer side of a daunting bit of math.
No team in baseball history has ever won a World Series after losing more than 42 of their final 81 games. The Phillies are now 22-22 since the midpoint of their schedule. If they maintain their current winning pace against both winning and losing teams, they would finish the season with 20 losses in their last 37 games, which would give them 42 losses in their last 81 games.
The Phillies face two issues here. The first is making the playoffs. They had a 65% chance to do so heading into Sunday’s game against the Twins. They are three games up on the Marlins and 3½ games up on the Cardinals. Both of those teams have tougher schedules than the Phillies. Except, both of those teams are in town this week for three-game series at Citizens Bank Park. The Cardinals took two of three from the Phillies last week. The Marlins swept them three weeks ago.
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Long story short, there’s a decent chance that this week ends up deciding the Phillies’ fate. Win both series, and suddenly their cushion is five games with 31 to play. The flip side is perilous. Lose four of six and suddenly the Phillies have lost ground on the competition with 13 of their remaining 31 games coming against the Rays, Braves and Brewers, who have the three best records in the majors. Not to mention a three-game series in Arizona against the Diamondbacks, who are 21-12 in their last 33 and who entered Sunday tied with the Phillies and Padres for the last three NL wild-card spots.
The second issue is a more abstract one. Only five teams in big league history have advanced to the World Series after losing more than half of their final 81 games. The Diamondbacks did it in 2023, when they lost 45 of 81 to finish the regular season but ended up beating the Phillies in the NLCS. That year, Arizona lost to the Rangers, who were 41-40 in their last 81. It helps to be playing well this time of year. You are who you are most recently.
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The Phillies are who they’ve been all season, save that torrid stretch that had everybody ready to give Don Mattingly a seven-year contract extension. They have one winning streak longer than two games since June 27. They haven’t won more than four in a row since May 18, and they haven’t won more than five in a row all season. Of the nine NL teams that entered Sunday with a winning record, only the Phillies do not have multiple winning streaks of five-plus games.
The time is now. Jonathan Bowlan needs to be a big part of it, too. He picked up a hold on Sunday, pitching a scoreless eighth inning two days after recording his first save of the season. The right-hander has allowed three runs in 16⅓ innings with 18 strikeouts and four walks since moving into a consistent high-leverage role.
The Phillies need to look at the next month and a half as an opportunity. In their last 41 games, they’ve won exactly three games against teams that had a winning record at the time. They haven’t won a series against such a team since taking three of four from the Nationals in late June. They’ve lost nine of their last 12 against teams that had a winning record as of Sunday.
They are going to play a lot of teams that happen to be the kinds of teams they need to beat. It starts on Monday.
Tony Gwynn Jr. is a former major league outfielder and son of late Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn. Over the last two years, he got to know new Phillies second baseman Luis Arraez, whose contact skills at the plate often draw comparisons to Gwynn. Tony Jr. joined Phillies Extra to discuss his father, Arraez, and the bonds that connect them. Watch here.
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