The Phillies must go through the Dodgers. To do it they’ll need to find a lefty reliever at the trade deadline.

Whatever the prediction models say about the Phillies’ chances to win the World Series — 5.8%, according to Fangraphs; 1.5%, from Baseball Reference — let’s agree on one thing.

The road will probably run through the Dodgers.

It’s not only that the two-time defending champs are playing at a 102-win pace. They’re also finally getting healthy. With Edwin Díaz and Kiké Hernández due to return this week and Blake Snell soon to follow, who needs the trade deadline?

At last check, five of the Dodgers’ seven best healthy hitters bat from the left side. The thought of running through a gauntlet of Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Kyle Tucker, and rookie catcher Dalton Rushing in the late innings has made one lefty reliever especially popular in trade talks leading up to Monday’s 6 p.m. deadline.

Remember the name: Adrián Morejón.

» READ MORE: It’s clear what the Phillies need at the trade deadline. Do they have the prospect capital to get it?

“Everybody” is asking the Padres about Morejón, a major league source said, “especially in the National League.” The 27-year-old pending free agent has a fastball that averages 99.4 mph and a 27.4% strikeout rate to go with a 3.20 ERA.

Oh, and he has allowed one homer to a left-handed hitter (old friend Mickey Moniak of the Rockies) in the last two seasons.

As constituted, the Phillies are a tough matchup for the Dodgers, especially in a seven-game series, because of lefty starters Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo. Los Angeles gets considerably more production from the left side of the plate (.809 OPS) than the right (.720).

But the Phillies’ best lefty reliever is José Alvarado, who has a 6.00 ERA despite allowing only one run in his last seven appearances. While team officials cite underlying metrics, such as batting average on balls in play (.412) and expected ERA (3.66), to claim that Alvarado has been unlucky, he also has given up a higher-than-usual rate of line drives and fly balls.

Tim Mayza, a groundball pitcher with his best strikeout rate (24.2%) since 2023, is the second lefty. He has an 8.68 ERA this month. Beyond that, Tanner Banks is out until at least mid-September with a strained left forearm.

So, it would make sense for Morejón to top the Phillies’ list of deadline targets, though it remains unclear if he will even be available.

The Padres are among the NL’s biggest underachievers, with a 53-53 record. But after sweeping the Marlins last weekend — aided by 2⅓ hitless innings from Morejón — they were two games out of a wild-card spot. And their last six games before the deadline are against the woeful Rockies and Giants.

» READ MORE: Phillies trade deadline preview: Bullpen is becoming a top priority, and maybe the Mets can provide answers

With a good week, the Padres could buy — or stand pat, at least — and take their chances with Morejón and star closer Mason Miller at the back of the bullpen. If they stub their toe again, moving Morejón’s expiring contract could be among their first trades.

The Mets have two veteran lefties who are eminently available. And Brooks Raley (2.09 ERA) and A.J. Minter (2.45) auditioned for scouts against the Dodgers last weekend.

Raley, 38, got three outs, including Ohtani, on seven pitches in the seventh inning Sunday, two days after giving up back-to-back hits to Tucker and Teoscar Hernández and a sacrifice fly to Ohtani. Minter, 32, allowed a two-run homer to Tucker in the eighth inning Saturday.

Both lefties will get traded. But would the out-of-contention Mets deal them to a division rival?

In a one-for-one swap of major leaguers last Saturday night, the Red Sox acquired infielder Curtis Mead from the Nationals for Connelly Early, a 24-year-old lefty starter with six pitches and five years of club control.

At first blush, three rival scouts said Boston overpaid.

But it also appears to be indicative of the market for right-handed bats, with demand far surpassing supply. Mike Trout and Byron Buxton don’t seem inclined to waive no-trade protection; the Orioles have pending free agent Taylor Ward and a losing record but remain in wild-card contention.

» READ MORE: The Phillies still need a right-handed bat. Let’s take an early dive into some options before the trade deadline.

Nationals president of baseball operations Paul Toboni told reporters he was “not really expecting to consider anything for Curtis” until the Sox came with a “pretty darn aggressive” offer. Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said it was “incredibly uncomfortable” to deal Early but called it a “need-for-need-type trade.”

There isn’t a team that needs a right-handed bat more than the Phillies, last in the majors in on-base percentage (.280) and OPS (.640) from the right side of the plate.

One option: the Royals’ Lane Thomas, who hits lefties and would be a platoon option with Brandon Marsh or perhaps Gabriel Rincones Jr. The Phillies looked into Thomas two years ago before he got traded to the Guardians.

The Giants are reportedly open to moving Heliot Ramos, more of an everyday solution. But given that he’d come with three years of club control, an overpay might be required to get the 2024 All-Star out of San Francisco.

With rain in the forecast Tuesday in the Northeast, the Mets relocated righty Clay Holmes’ minor-league rehab start to a low-A game in Florida.

It will be heavily scouted.

The Phillies dispatched a scout to Syracuse, N.Y., last week for Holmes’ first start in his recovery from a fracture in his right leg. If he’s healthy, the 33-year-old closer-turned-starter could help the Phillies in the rotation in the final two months of the regular season before possibly shifting to a late-inning role in the postseason.

» READ MORE: ‘The game is where it needs to be’: Bryce Harper wants compromise (and no salary cap) to keep sport thriving

Giants lefty Robbie Ray (1.71 ERA in his last 10 starts) and Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman (4.51 ERA) could also be on the move. Like Holmes, they are pending free agents.

Two rival team officials theorized that the Phillies could reduce the prospect return for a pitcher such as Ray or Gausman by taking on the remainder of the salary. Both are owed about $8 million through the end of the season.

Watch the latest episode

Jim Bowden spent 16 years as a general manager with the Reds and Nationals before becoming an MLB analyst and commentator. And with the trade deadline approaching — Aug. 3 at 6 p.m. — he joined Phillies Extra to discuss the Phillies’ needs, some potential targets, and what it’s like to be a GM in the frenzied days leading up to the deadline. Watch here.

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