Snow Forecast: What went wrong
"Flakegate." … "Fizzard of the Century.” Why snow forecasts ended up being a snow job.
Meteorologists were issuing a blizzard of apologies this morning for a forecast that went awry, and rarely have we known weathermen say they're sorry it didn't snow more.
"No one is happy about the forecast," said Gary Szatkowski, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, who, as noted, took to Twitter to offer a public apology.
In the end, the official total at Philadelphia International Airport/National Park of 1.2 inches, even failed to topple the reigning title-holder for the biggest snow of the winter – Jan. 6, when 1.5 was measured.
As John Bolaris wrote on philly.com, this was a classic "bust." Angelo Cataldi on WIP called it "flakegate."
The simple – and unsatisyfing -- explanation is that the storm stayed farther out to sea than anticipated, creaming southern New England, but largely sparing Philadelphia and New York City, where one reporter called it the "Fizzard of the Century."
But why were so many meteorologists so slow to recognize that the storm was taking that more-easterly path? No doubt this will be the subject of intense internal review, said Szatkowski.
Computer models, particularly the well-respected European, latched on to the idea of a monster East Coast storm late Saturday. But the storm never was a "done deal," in the words of Walter Drag, a lead forecaster in Mount Holly.
At a pre-season briefing, the Mount Holly meteorologists noted that they would be consulting 57 different computer models. On Sunday and even into late Monday night, they clearly were in a food fight.
Generally, the European is the most-highly regarded, and it was holding on to the idea of a blockbuster more steadfastly than the American GFS, which was far more conservative, noted Bill Deger, a meteorologist with AccuWeather, which had forecast 6 to 12 inches..
In this case, the GFS scored a coup, he said. And by the time other models came into line, thousands of flights had been canceled and schools closed.
Along with the GFS, the Weather Channel also scored a coup. Its forecast erred on the side of caution, given the spread in the models, and on Monday called for just 3 to 5 inches, said its winter specialist Tom Niziol, a Buffalo native and 30-year veteran of the weather service.
Meanwhile, in Mount Holly, as late as 10 p.m. Monday, the weather service still was calling for 10 inches in Philly, even though not much was happening around here.
Szatkowski said at that hour, heavy snow bands still were rotating toward the region from the east, and in terms of forecasters' backing off the snow totals, "We simply weren't there yet."
A few hours later, they were.
