Iran's threat is an opportunity

Iran's recent threat to block the Strait of Hormuz and choke off the world's oil supply, while frightening to some, presents a golden opportunity.

It's been a decade of cat-and-mouse games between the U.N. inspectors trying to peek under the hood of Iran's "peaceful" nuclear program and the Iranians misdirecting, parsing, spinning, and lying about it, all while putting up new secret nuclear facilities and acquiring nuclear components from the global black market.

Over 10 long years, the international community has alternated among totally ignoring Iran, being engaged but exasperated by a lack of good options, and making saber-rattling threats of war. The political classes in the West and Asia seem to be divided into two camps: advocates for diplomacy and proponents of bombing Iran's nuclear sites.

But then a gift arrived, ironically, from Iran. Senior Iranian political and military officials in December threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz and prevent oil from flowing to world markets. The threat came in response to plans for tough new U.S. and European sanctions, which make it more difficult for Iran to sell its oil and penalize countries that continue to trade with Iran.

The sanctions are not an act of war as Iran claims, but they will exact a painful economic price. So Iran has drawn a new "red line" with the West should the latest sanctions go into effect.

It has said it will attack the global economy and hurt the West and its Asian allies by blocking the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz, cutting off oil supplies and causing prices to spike. The strait is by far the world's most important choke point for oil shipments, with 20 percent of all oil traded worldwide passing through it.

Iran's threat to block the strait betrays a mounting desperation within the country. But it also gives the West options it didn't have before.

Act of war

If the Iranian military blocks the strait, Iran will have taken overt aggression against not just the West. but the world. The world economy can hardly be held hostage to Iran's whims, so U.S. leaders would have a responsibility to unblock the strait by force. So now, instead of just two unattractive options for dealing with Iran - diplomacy vs. military force - a new, third way is available.

As soon as the first Iranian mines hit the water in an effort to stop oil flows, Iran would have committed an act of war against the world economy. The international community and the United States would therfore have great latitude to undertake military action to free the strait.

A military plan would have to include the elimination of the offending Iranian ships or submarines laying mines, and the destruction of missiles that might menace shipping. Most of Iran's navy would find itself gracing the bottom of the sea as a result. Meanwhile, major U.S. Marine amphibious landings on Iran's coast and Army airborne drops deep inside the sparsely populated Hormozgan region would have to create a physical cordon and an occupied buffer zone between Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

It would be a very long time before the West gave this territory back to Iran.

End the threat

The threat to the strait and shipping would be eliminated. The United States would have the advantage of "strategic surprise." The Iranian leadership is comfortable today in the false notion that the seizure of sovereign Iranian territory is inconceivable.

Most important, by seizing Hormozgan, the West would have a forward base within Iran from which to conduct attacks on known nuclear sites. No longer could Iran find a sense of security in how difficult it would be for Israel or the West to conduct an air attack on its nuclear sites from thousands of miles away. Strike aircraft (and, more worrisome to Iran's regime, Special Forces troops) would be just 60 to 90 minutes away from Iranian nuclear sites.

Iran's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz has given the West new options. Played right, the current situation can change the calculus and the dynamics of the negotiation, and the current impasse can be broken. A diplomatic solution to the crisis might become far more attractive to Iran.

No sane person wants a war. As long as the pressure on Iran is real and mounting, diplomacy will likely have a much better chance of succeeding.

But now there is a new opportunity for the West to leverage Iran's threat and make it clear that should Iran block the strait (or should any conflict arise), it will mean a punitive seizure of Iran's southern state of Hormozgan. That could avert a military conflict between the West and Iran and encourage the country to make a peaceful deal. This may be the best way to end the threat as well as Iran's rogue nuclear adventure.