Who could lead the House GOP next Congress

House Republicans publicly insist they will keep their House majority in November.

But behind closed doors, many say that the House is likely lost, as most polls suggest. Jockeying to lead a potential minority has already begun, according to conversations with a dozen Republican lawmakers, aides, and former GOP leadership staffers, all granted anonymity in order to speak candidly.

Three figures have emerged as probable minority leader candidates.

Current House Speaker Mike Johnson (La.) told CBS News earlier this week that he expects his Republican colleagues to “call upon me to continue to lead the conference in divided government.”

But under House GOP conference rules, Johnson would not automatically become minority leader in the event Democrats take the House. Republicans get to choose their next leader using a secret ballot, and two longtime lawmakers — House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R., La.) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R., Ohio) — are likely to jump into the race.

Scalise and Jordan have publicly refused to entertain questions about any upcoming leadership fight on the record, however, saying only that they are focused on maintaining the majority.

Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R., Minn.), another figure that has been floated as a potential minority leader, has told the Washington Post that he plans on running for whip again next Congress. Should he succeed, he would effectively be the party’s number two leader in the House (if Democrats do win the majority, that is).

Here’s what you need to know about a potential GOP leadership fight.

Following midterm losses, speakers often face pressure to accept the blame for their party’s defeat and leave leadership. Many have left in recent cycles, though former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.), became minority leader in 2011 after Democrats’ dramatic losses in the 2010 midterms.

Some lawmakers say Johnson, who has led the GOP conference as speaker since 2023, should not try to follow in Pelosi’s footsteps.

If Republicans lose the House, “I assume that Speaker Johnson will return home or to whatever he chooses next,” a House Republican told the Post. “I can’t imagine that he would be running for minority leader. That’s a little unprecedented, especially if there’s a loss of the majority.”

Johnson maintains that Republicans will hold onto the House, and said in an interview with CBS News earlier this week that he’ll be the speaker of the House “for at least two more years.”

But he also told Fox News in early October that “if God moves on our hearts and says we should, you know, go back to my hometown of Shreveport and start a lawn business, I’ll do that” in the event of a GOP midterms loss.

He later told CBS News that those remarks were “tongue in cheek,” and said, “If, heaven forbid, we lost the majority ... my intention is to stay and serve,” which would mean running for minority leader.

Johnson has been campaigning with GOP members and challengers in over 40 districts across more than 20 states, and has raised a total of $156 million this campaign cycle.

Crucially, Johnson is very close to Trump. The president has repeatedly praised the speaker, crediting him with keeping the slim majority together in order to enact big parts of his agenda through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — the massive tax and immigration bill that Republicans passed last year.

One House Republican praised Johnson as someone who “knows how to effectively communicate with the president” and “knows how to tell him no” without angering Trump.

Trump played a major role in the 2023 speakership fight — virtually tanking Emmer’s bid. Some members the Post spoke to this time around say they expect the conference to chose its leader without Trump’s influence. However, if Johnson were to have Trump in his corner, that would be an asset.

A source familiar with House GOP leadership said Johnson staying on as leader is “not out of the realm of the possibility because the members like him,” but there will certainly be a reassessment of him postelection “if things are bad.”

Another House Republican insisted that Johnson has enough support in the party to continue running the conference even if they lose the majority.

Many Republicans the Post spoke to said it would not be Johnson, but Trump, who will be blamed if the party loses the House, given his unpopularity and that his policies have led to high prices.

“Let me put it as tactfully as I can: The blame will be the ‘environment’ that we’re in right now,” said a Republican lawmaker. “This is what happens historically in a presidential midterm, and especially in one like this, where the environment — if you’re reading what I’m saying — is extremely tough. So that is going to be where the blame would be ... certainly not at Mike Johnson’s or at anybody else’s feet.”

If it is not Johnson leading the party through a potential minority, some members pointed to Scalise, his No. 2 and a nine-term member widely seen as a traditional, establishment Republican, as the best choice.

Scalise last ran for the top seat in the House GOP in the chaotic race to replace former House speaker Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.), who was ousted from the seat in 2023.

Scalise was already majority leader at the time, but a bruising fight against Jordan left both candidates without enough votes to reach the 217 needed to become speaker. While he defeated Jordan 113-99 in an internal, head-to-head contest, once they came to the floor, he couldn’t get the public support needed. He withdrew from the race, then supported Johnson, at the time a relatively unknown member, for the speakership, calling him a “dear friend.”

In a hypothetical race for minority leader, any candidate would only require a simple majority of the GOP conference to win the spot — not 217 votes on the floor.

Scalise hasn’t said publicly that he’s looking to become minority leader if Democrats take the House. But running would be a logical next step, many House Republicans said, even if Johnson were to make a bid to stay on top.

“If we’re in the minority, I think it’s going to be a no-brainer,” one Republicans member said. “Scalise has made it clear that ... he’s going to run for leader one way or another.”

If he chooses to run for minority leader, Scalise will likely have the backing of a wide stretch of the conference, particularly those closer to the center. And he earned a lot of goodwill when he stepped aside during the battle for the speakership.

“He put the conference and the cause before himself,” one House Republican said.

As majority leader, he has campaigned heavily in competitive districts nationwide — including going on an 11-state swing — and has raised more than $64 million in this campaign cycle, giving $23.5 million to Republican campaigns and the National Republican Congressional Committee.

While several Republicans said Scalise’s time has come, some expressed concerns over his ability to play defense against the litany of investigations House Democrats will likely unleash against Trump and his allies if they win the majority.

“If they want someone who’s going to aggressively play defense on Oversight for Trump for two years, Jordan is the guy,” said a former House leadership aide.

Jordan, a far-right Republican who helped found the Freedom Caucus in 2015, is known for his fiery tactics. He and his allies were central in preventing Scalise from securing the final votes he needed to become speaker in 2023.

During that fight, Jordan made three unsuccessful attempts at winning the gavel, facing opposition from 25 Republicans on his final ballot.

Since then, Jordan has served as chairperson of the House Judiciary Committee, a powerful position where he led headline-grabbing investigations into the Biden administration.

Jordan announced on Sept. 9 that he would not come back as Judiciary chairperson in the next Congress — or look to lead Republicans on the House Oversight Committee — prompting speculation that he would try to pursue a leadership post if Republicans lose the House.

In the last year, Jordan has crisscrossed the nation, campaigning for Republican candidates across his party’s spectrum, in what some see as an effort to gain support among his peers.

Jordan has boosted incumbents like Reps. Mary Miller (Ill.) and Derrick Van Orden (Wis.), while also appearing alongside congressional hopefuls like Texas’s Alex Mealer, Georgia’s Houston Gaines, and Nevada’s David Flippo.

“Jim Jordan has been incredibly helpful to my campaign, and I have heard from others around the country that he has been very helpful to their campaigns as well,” said Alex Mealer, the Republican House nominee for Texas’s 9th District.

By September, Jordan — who does not have the same access to the level of fundraising tools that Johnson and other members of leadership do — had raised over $14 million through a combination of his political action committee, other affiliated groups, and the NRCC.

In the conference, Jordan is seen as aggressive and dogged, traits some say would help their party defend Trump (and the GOP at large) from likely Democratic investigations.

Those same qualities give some lawmakers pause, however — particularly those who remain frustrated with Jordan for his forceful approach to the 2023 speakership fight.

“Members need to be reminded of what he did that was threatening and not unifying and very destructive,” one House Republican said.