N.J. Republican Tom Kean Jr. faces a ‘blue wave’ as former Navy pilot Bennett gains ground

NEW PROVIDENCE, N.J. — While most Democrats running for Congress this year are squarely focused on running against President Donald Trump, New Jersey candidate Rebecca Bennett deviated from the typical playbook last week during a swing through Union County.

She mentioned Trump only once. And Bennett did not even mention her opponent, 7th District incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Kean Jr., until the final minute of an hour-long discussion on gun control with former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords, an Arizona Democrat who has been a leading voice on the issue since surviving an assassination attempt in 2011.

“I want to be clear that we are traumatizing a generation of kids because our elected officials in Washington are failing to solve this crisis that we are dealing with in this country,” Bennett said.

“There are very clear, commonsense things that we can do to tackle this, like background checks, like red flag laws, like secure storage and assault weapons bans. I want you all to know this is absolutely going to be a priority for me.”

Bennett is projecting confidence three weeks before Election Day.

Kean, the two-term GOP incumbent, must overcome a strong anti-Trump backlash and lingering questions over his nearly four-month medical leave of absence for depression that he did not explain until his return in June.

This week, two major Republican PACs confirmed they have pulled funding from Kean’s race, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee told Politico it would spend $13 million on ads in 39 targeted races, including the 7th District.

The same day she campaigned with Giffords, Bennett announced her latest fundraising haul of $4 million since the start of July.

The enthusiasm for Bennett at the gun control event was palpable with Giffords’ participation attracting an enthusiastic group of supporters in red T-shirts bearing the Moms Demand Action logo.

“Strong women get things done,” Giffords said.

“Words once came easily. But I’ve not lost my voice,” said Giffords, whose lingering injuries affect her speech and gait. “America needs all of us to speak out, even when you have to fight to find the words. … We are at a crossroads. We can let the shooting continue or we can act.”

Kim Banks of Somerset, whose 19-year-old son Samaad Zaire Frazier died by gun violence in 2019, said she supports Bennett because “our family’s safety needs to guide who we send to Congress.”

“As a mother who lost her son, I know we cannot wait,”said Banks, who took part in the discussion. “We need a representatives like Rebecca Bennett who will turn these commitments into votes, funding, and action that helps protect our children and communities.”

If the predicted “blue wave” enables Democrats to wrest control of the House from Republicans, it will carry Bennett to victory, said Ashley Koning, director of Rutgers University’s Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling.

Trump’s approval ratings in New Jersey continue to tumble, to 24% statewide, according to an Oct. 1 Rutgers-Eagleton poll.

Kean must overcome voters’ “absolute frustration and dissatisfaction with the Trump administration,” as well as his absence from Congress this year — unexplained until he returned and revealed he had been in treatment for depression, Koning said.

“This is a perfect storm against Kean. It becomes very hard for him to overcome,” Koning said.

But Kean, a fixture of the region’s politics for decades, should not be dismissed, his supporters say.

The 7th District — spread across Hunterdon and Warren Counties and parts of Morris, Somerset, Sussex and Union — knows Kean well, said Mike Duhaime, a Republican strategist who has run statewide and national campaigns but is not involved with Kean’s race.

Kean represented some of these counties as a state lawmaker for nearly 20 years. His father, former Gov. Thomas H. Kean, remains New Jersey’s most revered political figure of the last 40 years, Duhaime said.

Pre-Trump, the Kean brand was solidly fiscally conservative and socially moderate.

“He has a core group of voters, so he will do much better than the average Republican,” said Duhaime, who is also a friend of the Kean family.

“But there is no arguing the environment is really bad for Republicans,” Duhaime said, noting that party leaders are spending more this year to defend traditionally red states, like Kansas.

Three prominent forecasters, including the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, last week tagged the New Jersey race as “leans Democratic.”

Bennett spokesperson Carly Jones tried to reinforce the candidate’s underdog status by downplaying the Congressional Leadership Fund’s decision to steer money intended for Kean to other districts.

“Here’s what we know: Trump and National R’s placed a $500k media buy for Kean Jr. yesterday b/c he’ll be a rubber stamp for forever wars & higher prices. CLF pulling their ads represents, at most, 13% of R’s total spend against Rebecca. They still have $19M in ad reservations,” Jones posted Tuesday on X.

Kean had raised $4.89 million as of June 30, according to the most recent filings to the Federal Elections Commission. Kean’s campaign declined to share its latest fund-raising totals ahead of this week’s deadline.

“Tom has always proven to be a good fundraiser for himself,” said Bill Palatucci, a committeeman in the National Republican Committee who also has strong ties to the Kean family.

If anyone can survive the anticipated blue wave, Kean can, Palatucci said. Warren and Sussex Counties are “deep, deep red, the president is still popular there, and Tom has a very good team who knows how to turn out the vote.”

“I’d put this in the toss-up category,” Palatucci said.

There was a time when a newcomer like Bennett, a 39-year-old health technology executive from Bridgewater, would have struggled to gain any traction in a contest against a well-known, well-financed incumbent.

But in the Trump era, all politics is national. And the national mood is bleak, according to polls, as an unpopular war rages on and energy and food costs remain high. A recent Rutgers poll found three-quarters of New Jerseyans find it either “very” or “somewhat” difficult to afford education expenses like student loans and childcare, and two-thirds struggled with gas and medical costs.

These conditions create a path for Bennett, one that Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill blazed last November, Koning said. Bennett, like the governor, is a former Navy helicopter pilot.

Sherrill won handily in Kean’s backyard in Westfield and Summit on her way to a 14-point statewide win over Republican Jack Ciattarelli after a Trump-focused campaign.

“The Democrats smartly nominated someone here more in the moderate Sherrill mold rather than a socialist or far left,” Duhaime said.

“I don’t think people know where she stands on the issues,” Duhaime added. “She’s a former military pilot, so they probably think she is centrist.”

Bennett has campaigned on making healthcare, energy, and childcare more affordable. Her to-do list includes rolling back the cuts to Medicaid that Kean supported when he voted for Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which paid for tax cuts partly by reducing spending on programs that benefit low-income people.

She would undo the tax break on the wealthy and use the money to cap families’ childcare costs at 7% of their household income and create a separate rate class for data centers “to make sure they are paying their fair share,” Bennett told The Inquirer Editorial Board.

(The editorial board, which runs The Inquirer’s opinion pages and decides endorsements, operates independently from the newsroom. Newsroom editors and reporters have no role in endorsements, and opinion staffers have no role in news coverage).

Kean has not responded to the board’s invitations to appear.

The Republican has touted his success in helping to restore the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction through 2029, a win for high-tax states like New Jersey.

At a Sept. 28 debate, Kean stood apart from Trump on two key issues. For the first time, he spoke out against Immigration and Customs Enforcement operating an immigrant detention center in Roxbury, in the district. He also stressed his support for the Gateway Hudson River rail tunnel project, which Trump repeatedly has tried to defund.

“I will make sure that I counter anybody who gets in my way, including this president,” he said.

These are not the issues featured in the attack ads bombarding TV viewers.

Bennett’s ads have focused on introducing herself to voters and contrasting herself with Kean on issues such as stock trading by members of Congress — a controversial topic in the district for several election cycles.

In one ad, titled “Fighting for,” Bennett says: “I approve this message because the Navy taught me service over self. So I’ll never take corporate money. I already sold my stocks.” During the debate, she slammed Kean for signing off on stock trades, even during his medical leave.

Kean denied the claim, saying that his signature is legally required but that he has had no input on how his money is invested. “I’ve not traded an individual stock since I’ve been a member of Congress,” he fired back.

Kean’s attorney told NJ Monitor an outside firm independently manages the lawmaker’s investments.

One of Kean’s most recent ads calls Bennett “a greedy, liberal millionaire who doesn’t care about you,” according to one recent Kean campaign ad titled “Profits Over Patients.” Kean’s campaign declined to answer questions about the ad, which flashes to headlines involving Lifepoint Health, a private equity-owned hospital chain. As an executive at Midi Health, a telemedicine company focused on women’s health, Bennett brokered a deal for Midi to work with Lifepoint.

According to an NBC News report, Lifepoint denied numerous patients cancer treatment by refusing to accept their insurance.

Kean is running a lower-profile campaign compared with Bennett by having fewer public events and discouraging the media from attending. But Palatucci said Kean is “out there in the district seven days a week. Voters see him. And his social media efforts are very, very good.”

Palatucci said this is where Bennett comes up short. “If you get out and talk to people in Hunterdon, Warren, and Sussex Counties and ask them who is Rebecca Bennett, they would have no idea,” he said

When it comes time to vote, what 7th District residents think of Trump’s record is what is likely to determine the outcome, Duhaime said.

“It’s harder to carve out an image unique from the party and from Trump,” he said.