Phillies made a sound bet on Andrew McCutchen. They’re hoping it finally pays off this season.

The veteran left fielder had been on the injured list once in 10 years before blowing out his knee in 2019. Indications are that he's running better in spring training.

Phillies left fielder Andrew McCutchen is entering the last season of his three-year, $50 million contract.Read moreJOSE F. MORENO / Staff Photographer

by Scott Lauber

Published Mar. 3, 2021, 7:00 p.m. ET

You could put a handful of Ivy League executives in a room with half a dozen road-warrior scouts, a few whiz-kid analysts with cutting-edge computer software, even some coaches and an ex-player or two. With input from everyone, you could reach a decision about signing a free agent or making a trade that is rooted in logic, data, and old-fashioned intuition.

And still, it might not work out.

It happens. Sometimes it’s as quick and arbitrary as a player who went on the injured list once in 10 years -- for a total of 15 days -- tearing a ligament in his knee while retreating to first base and twisting to avoid a tag. As long as baseball is played by humans, there isn’t a model or a metric that can be predictive with 100% accuracy.

In choosing to sign Andrew McCutchen over fellow outfielder Michael Brantley in December 2018, the Phillies made what they deemed a safe free-agent bet. That it has been more of a bust so far is a product of bad luck, not bad decision-making.

McCutchen and Brantley hit the market two winters ago as former All-Stars and MVP candidates, with McCutchen having won the award in the National League in 2013. They are nearly the same age (McCutchen is seven months older) and were seeking multiyear contracts.

The tiebreaker, in the Phillies’ mind, was that McCutchen played more games (1,081) than any major-league outfielder from 2012 to 2018. Brantley was 20th (837 games) during that span, including 11 games in 2016 and 87 in 2017.

So, the Phillies did the perfectly sensible thing and went with the more durable player. They signed McCutchen to a three-year, $50 million contract days before the Houston Astros gave Brantley a two-year, $32 million deal.

Guess which player got injured.

Brantley started 84.7% of the Astros’ games in 2019 and 2020, and batted .309 with 27 homers, an .867 OPS, and 5.5 wins above replacement, according to Fangraphs, tied for 16th among American League position players. In January, the Astros doubled down on their initial investment, re-signing Brantley to another two-year, $32 million contract.

McCutchen, unbreakable for so long, tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee 60 games into the 2019 season, an injury that is rare among baseball players. He returned last season but was plainly hobbled. In two years, he has started 49.5% of the Phillies’ games and batted .255 with 20 homers, a .797 OPS, and 1.3 WAR.

The last season of a multiyear deal for players in their 30s is usually the worst. But the Phillies believe they may be witnessing a revival from McCutchen, which would be every bit as counterintuitive as the rest of his tenure with the club.

After his injury, McCutchen had surgery and undertook an arduous rehabilitation. Asked last spring if he felt nervous that he would make a successful recovery, he said, “There’s no ‘hope’ in my mind. There’s a ‘know’. I know what I can do, I know what I’m going to do.”

But even during the delayed training camp at Citizens Bank Park last summer, McCutchen spent more time in the trainer’s room receiving treatment for his knee than he did on the field or in the batting cage. He admitted during the season that he “wanted to rush through it” and be “better than what I’ve been.” After a slow start, he finished with a .253 average, 10 homers, and a .757 OPS.

McCutchen had a more normal offseason this winter and reported to camp healthy and without restrictions. Last week, Joe Girardi said he was “curious” to get a look at the 34-year-old in exhibition games.

Thus far, the manager is pleased. McCutchen has started two of the Phillies’ four games, including Wednesday’s 4-2 victory over the Detroit Tigers in Lakeland, Fla., and appeared by all accounts to be more mobile on the bases and in the outfield.

“He’s running so much better than he did at any point last year,” Girardi said.

The true test may come when McCutchen is challenged to run down more balls in left field. His defense slipped last season in large part because his range diminished. And barring an 11th-hour agreement that brings the designated hitter back to the NL this season, McCutchen will have to make all of his starts in the outfield.

But after Monday’s game in Clearwater, Girardi noted McCutchen’s lack of hesitation in going from first to third on a double to left field by Jean Segura is perhaps the best sign yet that his knee isn’t as much of an issue.

“The first-to-third is what stuck out to me, how easily he did that,” Girardi said. “There was no limp when he slowed down. He looked natural running.”

Put another way, he looked more like he did before the injury. And if he’s able to get back to being that player, he would finally give the Phillies more of what they expected when they signed him.