Health-care furor an issue in Specter's campaign

Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter became a symbol of the angry protests against President Obama's proposal to overhaul health care as he absorbed insults and curses Tuesday from constituents in Lebanon, Pa. - live, on all the major cable news networks.

In one memorable scene replayed hundreds of times, Specter stood inches from a screaming man who accused him of subverting the Constitution. The man thundered, "One day, God's going to stand before you and judge you and the rest of your damn cronies up on the Hill - and then you will get your just deserts."

Specter, 79, is living a different sort of judgment day, facing the voters of Pennsylvania as he runs for a sixth term after switching parties in the spring. Embraced by Obama and the Democratic establishment, the erstwhile Republican has drawn a primary challenger from his left, U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak (D., Pa.).

Similar, though less vitriolic, anger greeted Specter elsewhere at three more town halls in central and western Pennsylvania later in the week. Political experts debate whether the experience helped or hurt his chances of reelection. At the least, they say, the tour marked a significant shift in the campaign's story line after weeks in which Specter struggled to adjust to his new status as a Democrat.

On the positive side, the town-hall furor gave Specter a chance to cast himself as a loyal defender of the president and the Democratic Party's top priority - health care - amid continued voter doubts about his true commitment to the party.

On the other hand, some say the encounters, and news coverage of them, risked diminishing Specter, making him seem frail or piqued.

But pollsters and consultants familiar with Pennsylvania politics say the level of anger displayed at the town halls, the sense of frustration, illustrate a broader problem for Specter, both in the primary and in the general election, if he wins the Democratic nomination.

Will it be a good thing in 2010 to be a 30-year incumbent closely tied to Obama if voters are dissatisfied and economic recovery is slow? Will worries about government spending and the deficit hurt?

"It's given Specter a chance to be out front supporting the president's plan and Democratic plans to reform health care, to solidify his bona fides with primary voters," said Philadelphia-based Democratic strategist Mark Nevins.

Chris Nicholas, Specter's campaign manager, said the senator drew a standing ovation Wednesday at a luncheon of party activists in Perry County, with people praising his performance in Lebanon.

"These people are now seeing, on whatever cable net they watch and in all this coverage in the newspapers, what he's been up against," Nicholas said. "For most core Democrats . . . the key issue for them is health care. They see Sen. Specter standing up for their number-one priority."

There were moments when Specter seemed snappish, such as when he told the Lebanon crowd, "I don't have to be here - I don't get any extra pay for this." He was trying to say he wanted to listen to what people had to say, but Nevins said such exchanges could carry a negative connotation for some voters.

"It all depends on what Democratic primary voters take away," Nevins said. "Do they see Arlen Specter as an advocate for the president, or do they see a grumpy, mildly arrogant, stubborn senator who's been there for 30 years?"

Analysts say that it is hard to tell whether the imagery from the week of town halls gone wild will last.

To pollster Terry Madonna of Franklin & Marshall College, the much-discussed Lebanon town-hall meeting was not really a defining moment, though it was important. After all, he said, Republican presidential nominee John McCain carried conservative Lebanon County with 60 percent of the vote last fall, so it was no surprise there would be opposition.

"There was a lot of cable hype, but people who watched it saw that for the most part, people were loud but respectful, and Specter handled himself well," Madonna said. "He shows he's fearless and indefatigable; there's a sort of grudging admiration."

At Wednesday's town-hall meeting in State College, speaker after speaker praised Specter for having the "courage" to take their questions and comments - just before lighting into him. One man said that other members of Congress were "weaseling out" and that he appreciated the chance to speak to Specter.

Specter told reporters that the hysteria surrounding the health-care plan was "not representative" of the attitude of voters as a whole, though he said opponents deserved to be heard. He's banking that his support of reform - albeit with the caveat that he would not support a bill that would add to the deficit - will be popular especially in the Democratic primary.

"People's minds are made up on Arlen Specter," said William Green, a Republican political consultant in Pittsburgh. "After 30 years, voters have got a feel for the guy - he's ambitious and without any political rudder."

Recent independent polling shows the depth of Specter's challenge: Though he has a healthy lead over Sestak in head-to-head matchups, his support is soft. A mid-July Quinnipiac University poll of 1,173 Pennsylvania voters, for instance, found that 49 percent thought Specter did not deserve another term, versus 40 percent who thought he did. The poll's margin of error was 2.9 percentage points.

"With the primary electorate, he is in a precarious position: He has to be a 100 percent Obama Democrat," Madonna said. "He can't back off."

And waiting to face either Democrat is former Rep. Pat Toomey of Allentown, a Republican. Spokeswoman Nachama Soloveichik said voters were souring on the bailouts and health-care overhaul that both Sestak and Specter support.

Said Soloveichik, "They are supporting policies that will increase the power of government, raise taxes, and reduce people's power over their own lives."