Tangled up in blue | PA 2026 Newsletter
We wave goodbye to the 2026 election after Democrats dominated Tuesday. Here’s what comes next.
📅 It’s 3 days after Election Day.
A crowd of boisterous Democrats in a Newtown event hall screamed with joy on Tuesday night when the blue wave washed over races in South Carolina, Georgia, and Texas.
Those states are hundreds of miles away.
So can you imagine how loud supporters — full of adrenaline and pizza — roared when their homegrown Bucks County Democrat, Bob Harvie, walked in and declared victory over Republican incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in one of the toughest races this cycle?
🎤 I’m Fallon Roth, The Inquirer’s suburban politics reporter, bringing you our final PA 2026 newsletter, and I can personally tell you the answer to that question is: very loud.
I’ve spent the better part of the past year covering the 1st Congressional District race in Bucks County, and on Tuesday night, Harvie achieved something no one else has — defeating Fitzpatrick, a five-term incumbent.
And when January comes, Harvie will be the first Democrat to represent Bucks County in Congress since 2011.
But that’s hardly the only win Democrats notched in Tuesday’s “blue tsunami.” Key seat flips in Bucks County helped expand Democrats’ majority in the state House and won the party’s control of the state Senate, delivering a Democratic trifecta for Gov. Josh Shapiro (who coasted to reelection) for the first time since 1993.
In this edition:
🗳️ Complete control: Democrats score a trifecta in Harrisburg for the first time since 1993, giving Shapiro a lot more power.
🗳️ Staying put: Philly’s Rep. Brendan Boyle won’t seek Sen. John Fetterman’s seat in 2028 as he prepares to take a House chairmanship instead.
🗳️ Big swing: Bucks County Democrats tried for years to unseat Brian Fitzpatrick. Here’s how Bob Harvie finally did.
— Fallon Roth, Sam Janesch, Gillian McGoldrick, Michelle Baruchman (pa2026@inquirer.com)
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The latest
The Sweep: Democrats flipped all four competitive U.S. House seats in Pennsylvania and two in New Jersey in the “blue tsunami.”
For the first time in a generation, Democrats are set to have a trifecta of control in Harrisburg, creating ideal conditions for Shapiro’s “get stuff done” mantra. It could mean an infusion of cash for Philly schools and SEPTA.
Shapiro has made winning a massive swing state look relatively easy. It’s already fueling 2028 presidential talks — including mixed feelings from some of his neighbors in Montco.
The cavalry didn’t come through for Stacy Garrity, and it showed.
A dearth of competitive races in Southeastern Pennsylvania likely led to a dip in turnout.
Not the 51st vote: Democrats’ massive U.S. Senate wins in deep-red states ensured a “Fetterman-proof” majority that won’t rely on the sometimes unpredictable Pennsylvania Democrat.
Data dive
Every precinct in the 1st Congressional District shifted toward Democrats Tuesday in comparison to 2024.
Harvie significantly improved on the performance of Ashley Ehasz, the party’s 2024 nominee, in a year when Fitzpatrick comfortably won reelection by 10 points even as the district went for Democrat Kamala Harris in the presidential race.
The district covers all of Bucks County and a portion of Montgomery County. Harvie saw his highest vote margins in a precinct in Solebury Township, New Hope Borough, a precinct slightly north of Horsham in Montco, and in a precinct in Falls Township, Harvie’s stomping grounds.
Most of Lower Bucks — a populous part of the county where both candidates are from — went blue, as did most of Central Bucks and the district’s portion of Montgomery County.
Upper Bucks, a more rural part of the county, leaned red and Fitzpatrick had his largest precinct win margin in a part of Hilltown Township.
Campaign Scrapple
Culture clash: Our colleague Al Lubrano caught an exchange between two voters in Carlisle in the 10th District. Republican Robert House, 57, a beekeeper who said he owns 175 firearms, said he voted for Republican Rep. Scott Perry because he “agrees with the Bible” and opposes abortion. That prompted Adrienne Cedro, a 21-year-old college student, to say she voted to oust Perry and anyone “who’s against the rights of women, LGBTQ, and trans people.”
Name that tune: After Republican gubernatorial nominee Stacy Garrity concluded her concession speech Tuesday, she walked off to Fleetwood Mac’s “Don’t Stop” — a song famously associated with Democrat Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign. Shapiro, for his part, walked off the stage from his reelection victory speech to Tom Petty’s “I Won’t Back Down,” previously associated with George W. Bush’s 2000 presidential campaign until Petty’s team demanded Bush stop using it.
📸 Behind the scenes snapshot
Rarely do we get to see Shapiro giddy or animated, but our photographer Tom Gralish was able to capture him authentically gleeful on Tuesday evening at his reelection party in Camp Hill. Shapiro went on to bring a similar excitement about Pennsylvania Democrats’ major wins to national network news, as he boasted about his own role in Tuesday’s “bluenami.”
👀 What we’re watching
The historic midterm results didn’t just answer massive lingering questions about the limits of Trump’s enduring stranglehold on American politics. It raised countless others — transforming the range of possibilities for the rest of Trump’s time in the White House and far beyond it.
How will Democrats unite — or butt heads — as they wield their new majorities in Congress amid their own ideological battles? How will Republicans, both in Pennsylvania and Washington, handle the repudiation of a president who’s molded their party in his image over a decade?
By mid-2027, we’ll also likely — finally — get answers to critical questions about 2028.
Will Josh Shapiro launch a long-rumored campaign? And, if so, how will his record in the nation’s largest swing state match up against what’s almost certainly going to be a huge field of other Democratic governors, senators and outsiders?
The other big prize on the 2028 ballot for both parties will be John Fetterman’s seat in the U.S. Senate. Fetterman’s decisions about his own future are a mystery that may not be answered any time soon.
But Democrats who’ve been promising for months to oust him are already preparing to run (check out our coverage of Rep. Chris Deluzio here) or deciding against it (Rep. Brendan Boyle is taking his talents to the Budget Committee chairmanship).
Quote of the week
Nicholas, a veteran strategist who grew up in Bucks County, captured the reality for Republicans after their wipeout across the state and country.
It happens.
Democrats were the bug just two years ago when they lost every statewide race and two congressional seats. But this year, they were the windshield, and Republicans went splat.
The contrast in mood between the two parties was stark.
Harvie held his election night party at a massive wedding venue while Fitzpatrick watched in private and Bucks County Republicans kept a small watch party closed to the media. And up in Wyoming County, the AP called Garrity’s loss a minute after polls closed, as people were still filtering into her party.
👋 Thank you for following along on our journey through the homestretch of this chaotic, exciting, and unpredictable midterm cycle. This may be our last PA 2026 newsletter, but you can always find our in-depth reporting here.
And see you in 2028? 😎
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