Phillies will have outfield intrigue in season's final two months | Matt Gelb
Could the Phillies carry the current alignment into 2018? It depends on how Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams finish.

Every season, from 2003 to 2010, the Phillies ranked among the league's top five in runs scored. And, in every one of those seasons, they featured a productive outfield. Only Colorado's outfielders posted a higher OPS (.836) than the Phillies' .829 over that eight-season span.
The Phillies used 40 different outfielders from 2012 to 2016. They produced a .706 OPS; only Houston's .687 clip was worse. There are myriad reasons for the Phillies' descent, and outfield ineptitude is but one. That is why, in the final two months of this season, there may be no more fascinating unit than the current outfield.
The Phillies should head into 2018 with a decent idea of what their infield will resemble. Some combination of Andrew Knapp, Jorge Alfaro, Cameron Rupp, Rhys Hoskins, Tommy Joseph, Cesar Hernandez, Scott Kingery, Freddy Galvis, J.P. Crawford, and Maikel Franco is likeliest. Barring a surprise acquisition or change in thinking, the Phillies will not — at least not yet — pursue an external upgrade there.
So that leaves the outfield. The current unit of Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera, and Aaron Altherr has flashed promise. Herrera is an enigma, but a talented one, and the only player guaranteed money beyond 2017. Altherr played his way into the long-term conversation with a breakout first half. Williams' first 22 games in the majors have been a revelation.
Entering this weekend's games, Phillies outfielders had produced a .776 OPS. That is, for now, the highest mark since 2010. They clobbered 37 homers in the first 99 games, which equaled the total output of the 2016 outfielders.
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Could the Phillies carry the current alignment into 2018? They could, especially if Altherr and Williams finish strong in August and September. Remember: Altherr impressed in a brief 2015 audition but disappointed in the last two months of 2016 after wrist surgery, which was enough to compel the Phillies to add two veteran corner outfielders. The last two months matter, just as the first four did.
If the Phillies do not add a veteran outfielder for an everyday role, they could field a lineup of players all 28 or younger. They could decide against that. The Phillies spent almost $70 million last winter to cushion the roster with veterans — Howie Kendrick, Michael Saunders, Jeremy Hellickson, Clay Buchholz, Joaquin Benoit, Pat Neshek, and Jeanmar Gomez — and the returns were mixed. Some of the impetus for those moves came from ownership, which did not want to play with one of the league's lowest payrolls.
That desire could again influence roster decisions this winter.
The potential free-agent class does not overwhelm. The best available outfield bat will be J.D. Martinez. Justin Upton could opt out of $88.5 million in search of more cash, but given the tepid trade market this month for position players, he could stay in Detroit and wait for a trade. Lorenzo Cain, Jay Bruce, Melky Cabrera, and Carlos Gonzalez are other free agents.
The Phillies, as they have in the last two winters, could target an outfielder on an expiring contract and strike a trade. Or they could pursue bats like Curtis Granderson, Jon Jay, Austin Jackson or — gasp! — Jayson Werth as part-time players who could help on the field and in the clubhouse.
The whole equation is somewhat complicated. The Phillies want to provide opportunities to their young players because if they do not, they may never know what that player can be in the majors. But the balance between development at the major-league level and winning is a difficult one.
That means Altherr and Williams have the most to win — and lose — in the season's final two months. Altherr, at this point, appears nothing less than a fourth outfielder. He could be more.
It is hard to render any judgment about Williams. He has impressed. He will be tested, and it will be captivating to see how he adjusts.
Some fun with small sample sizes: Five Phillies since 1980 have posted a .900 OPS as regulars in their first 22 career games. They were: Darin Ruf (1.077 OPS), Tommy Joseph (.981), Ron Jones (.980), Williams (.929), and Kevin Stocker (.900).
There are other parts to the equation. Dylan Cozens has prodigious power and a high strikeout rate, an epitome of the modern player. He's targeted for a September promotion. He is an interesting player. So is Roman Quinn, sidelined since May 28 with an elbow injury. It is difficult to consider Quinn, 24, a prospect now. He has spent six seasons in the Phillies system, and just once has he accrued more than 400 plate appearances.
The Phillies have spent their last three first-round picks on outfielders, none of which will be major-league options in 2018 but could influence the decision about a long-term commitment to a free-agent or trade acquisition.
And, who knows? Maybe the Marlins call one day to announce they are ready to trade Christian Yelich. Then, the equation changes again.
Updates on three
1. Jorge Alfaro: He's hitting .211 with a .272 on-base percentage and .297 slugging percentage since May 1 and struck out in a third of his plate appearances. A step back, and a concerning one.
2. Luis Garcia: It will be interesting to see if the Phillies find some ninth-inning spots for him. Pete Mackanin has resisted labeling anyone his closer. Hector Neris could be better suited as a setup man. Garcia has the stuff and, now, some confidence.
3. Alejandro Requena: The 20-year-old Venezuelan looks like the key to the Pat Neshek trade. He's a righthanded starter who throws in the low 90s with solid strikeout and walk rates. The more lottery tickets, the better odds.

























