Three House races in Pa. — including in Bucks County — shift toward Democrats, Cook Political Report says
Brian Fitzpatrick is still favored to win reelection, but his chances look less certain than they once did.
A nonpartisan election tracker shifted its ratings for three competitive U.S. House races in Pennsylvania toward Democrats Friday morning, a sign of growing momentum for the party ahead of next month’s make-or-break midterm elections.
The Cook Political Report changed its rating in Bucks County’s 1st Congressional District race —where Democratic County Commissioner Bob Harvie is challenging longtime GOP incumbent U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick — to “lean” Republican after it had been sitting at “likely” Republican for most of the cycle.
That means Fitzpatrick still remains favored to win reelection, but his chances are less sure than previously thought. Meanwhile, Democrats look poised to flip other seats in the state.
In its analysis, the Cook Political Report said while Fitzpatrick still has the “chops” to win — and outperform his party like he has consistently done before — the 1st District race “could be quite close.”
“Democrats, who have more offensive targets on the map than they can afford to spend in, have another reason to believe this race is worth their investment,” according to the report. “If Harvie can pull off an upset this cycle, Democrats have a better shot at holding on to this seat in the long term than they do in other reach seats.”
Fitzpatrick’s campaign didn’t immediately comment on the analysis.
The last time a Democrat represented the Bucks County area was 2011.
The new ratings in the Pennsylvania contests were announced along with 15 other U.S. House races nationwide that Cook has shifted in Democrats’ favor.
The Lehigh Valley’s 7th District and the Harrisburg-area’s 10th District have also moved from toss-up to “lean” Democrat in Cook’s rating. The 8th District in the Scranton area remains rated as a toss-up.
Democrats and Republicans are battling for control of Congress throughout the country, but that competition has taken particular focus in Pennsylvania’s four crucial swing districts as House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries descend on the commonwealth.
The biggest shift so far in these four races is the growing attention on Harvie’s challenge against Fitzpatrick, the well-fundraised last remaining House Republican representing the swingiest district in the Philadelphia region.
Jeffries will visit Lower Bucks County this weekend to support Harvie along with Gov. Josh Shapiro, marking the governor’s second weekend in a row in the pivotal swing county. Jeffries and Shapiro’s visit comes days after Johnson also visited Bucks for a private meeting with Fitzpatrick.
Harvie is also seeing increased financial support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
In a statement, Harvie said that “the momentum behind our campaign is real and growing by the day,” noting his intent to vote to end the Iran war and “fight the corruption that is costing Pennsylvanians” if he were to be elected.
National attention from both parties still remains on the 7th District race between Democrat Bob Brooks and GOP U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who is considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country this cycle.
Asked about the rating, Benny Stanislawski, a spokesperson for Brooks, said “Bob Brooks spent 20 years putting out fires in Bethlehem, so he knows the job isn’t finished until the flames are fully put out.”
Andres Weller, Mackenzie’s campaign manager, said in a statement that “This race will be determined by voters, not political prognosticators” and that voters in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos will not elect Brooks.
Johnson, the Louisiana Republican who has held the speakership since 2023, campaigned for Mackenzie in the 7th District this week and for U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan in the 8th as he fends off a challenge from Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti. Johnson also campaigned in support of U.S. Rep. Scott Perry in the 10th District in his rematch with Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson.
“This race is far from over – we will fight through November 3rd to send Scott Perry packing,” said Alma Baker, Stelson’s campaign manager, in a statement.
A spokesperson for Perry did not respond to a request for comment.
