Democrats project confidence while GOP braces for possible midterm losses in Pa. and New Jersey

Two years after President Donald Trump won a record number of votes in Pennsylvania and Republicans swept statewide races, the party entered Tuesday bracing for very different results.

The president’s cratering approval ratings amid widespread concerns around affordability, corruption, and the war in Iran have fueled Democratic optimism for months.

And in the lead-up to Tuesday’s election, Democrats look poised to win back two congressional seats they lost in 2024 and potentially flip two others with popular Gov. Josh Shapiro at the top of the ticket. They even have a shot at winning control of the state Senate for the first time in three decades.

Republicans have pushed back — defending their records, attacking their opponents and, in some cases, distancing themselves from the historically unpopular president.

But even in the final hours of the more than yearlong campaigns, Democrats were projecting confidence on Monday in ways they hadn’t in previous years which yielded a “blue wave.”

“The path to the majority in the House of Representatives runs right through Pennsylvania, and right through Pennsylvania One,” U.S. Rep. Suzan DelBene (D., Wash.), the national leader of House Democrats’ efforts to win control of the chamber, said during an event with Democrat Bob Harvie in Bucks County.

Harvie is locked in a neck-and-neck race against Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the 1st Congressional District, which covers Bucks and a sliver of Montgomery County.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which DelBene chairs, and other national Democratic groups steered significant resources toward Harvie’s candidacy in the final month of the campaign.

And Shapiro, a likely White House contender after Tuesday, provided consistent support, making multiple visits to the district, including a Saturday rally.

Stumping with DelBene and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel — another potential 2028 presidential candidate — on Monday in Lower Bucks County, Harvie said his mindset in the home stretch was to keep running “like you’re behind.”

“It’s one of those things you’re getting toward the goal that you’ve been fighting for,” Harvie said.

Fitzpatrick has handily defeated Democratic challengers in the last decade in a district where his late brother once served and where he’s built a brand as one of the few moderate, anti-Trump Republicans left in the country.

In interviews in recent days and throughout his campaign, he’s repeatedly stressed his independence even as national Republican leaders — including Trump’s super PAC — have combined to spend millions to push him over the finish line.

The Republican incumbent held no major public events in the district on Monday and a judge rejected his lawsuit seeking to disqualify a member of the Bucks County election board over her connections with Harvie.

Fitzpatrick’s family has held the seat for most of the past two decades, except for a four-year period between 2007 and 2011. That could change after Tuesday.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a major nonpartisan elections forecaster based at the University of Virginia, moved the district from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic.”

Each of the other three swing districts in Pennsylvania that could help decide control of the U.S. House on Tuesday were also rated “leans Democratic” by the forecaster and by the Cook Political Report, another widely cited ratings report.

In the Lehigh Valley-based 7th and Scranton-based 8th Congressional Districts, freshmen Republican U.S. Reps. Ryan Mackenzie and Rob Bresnahan were looking for second terms in districts they flipped in 2024. In the Harrisburg-based 10th Congressional District, GOP U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, a staunch Trump ally, was hoping to fend off a challenge from the same Democrat who nearly beat him two years ago.

Reilly Richardson, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement that the GOP nominees were in a “strong position” because they “successfully fought for the priorities the American people elected them to enact.”

“Voters in Pennsylvania have a clear choice: While Republicans are running commonsense, battle-tested incumbents who have delivered results for their communities, Democrats have nominated radicals whose far-left, high-cost, tax-and-spend agenda would be a disaster for working families,” Richardson said.

In their bid for the governorship, Republicans were set to spend their final night before Election Day with a rally in Bucks County, the county that could decide control of the state Senate in addition to Fitzpatrick’s race.

Joining GOP nominee Stacy Garrity in Newtown were all of the state’s Republican heavy hitters — U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick, Attorney General Dave Sunday, Auditor General Tim DeFoor, Pennsylvania Republican Party Chairman Greg Rothman and more.

Shapiro, who has led Garrity by significant margins in every poll, finished a statewide bus tour with a pair of events in Montgomery County, where the governor resides and first launched his political career.

During his bus tour, Shapiro stumped in the four big congressional races and for candidates further down the ballot. The Democrat has sought to elevate state Senate candidates in particular, aiming to win control of all three branches in Harrisburg for the first time in three decades. At the top of the agenda if he secures it: Raising Pennsylvania’s minimum wage, codifying abortion rights, and increasing funding for mass transit, he said at a rally in Lower Merion on Monday.

“I’m fighting hard across this commonwealth to win that trifecta, so that we can do good for other people,” Shapiro said.

The final campaign swing also made clear that more than just the immediate races were on the line for Shapiro.

“OK, Mr. President,” Scott Anthony Romano, a 61-year-old Belmont Hills resident said at Shapiro’s rally, temporarily interrupting the governor’s speech. “He’s going to be our next president,” Romano said.

Shapiro, who has dismissed questions about a potential 2028 presidential run, quickly brushed the suggestion off on the eve of his likely reelection.

“All right, let’s ease up here. My wife’s here. I don’t want her hearing that kind of stuff,” Shapiro said, before returning to his story.

Across the river, Democrats led by New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill were making their final push on Monday in an area that underscored Democrats’ expanding hopes on Tuesday.

Cumberland County Democrats were bursting with excitement as Sherrill made an appearance at their Vineland headquarters in support of congressional candidate Zack Mullock, the Cape May mayor challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew.

Democrats have spent most of 2026 targeting GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr. in the state’s 7th Congressional District. (Sherrill was slated to rally with Kean’s Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett in Union County Monday evening).

National Republicans ultimately redirected resources intended to reelect Kean while Democrats spent the end of the campaign rallying for Mullock — including with visits from U.S. Sens. Cory Booker and Andy Kim, as well as DNC Chair Ken Martin.

“The governor doesn’t usually come to Vineland, especially the night before election night, so we are super thrilled about that,” said Carlos Mercado, a Democratic state committee member and legislative chair for the New Jersey State Firefighter Mutual Benevolent Association.

While Pennsylvania Democrats claimed their races were the keys to control the U.S. House for the final years of Trump’s term, Sherrill made the same case in South Jersey.

“That’s why we need Zack,” she said after criticizing Trump’s decision to purchase diesel from Russia and his administration’s impact on rising costs. “Because I mean, I almost feel like it’s because he’s a Democrat in New Jersey, and we know what we’re doing here. We got the vision, but it’s also because the path to the majority for the House of Representatives runs right through New Jersey.”

Staff writer Denali Sagner contributed to this article.