Tuesday is Election Day in Pennsylvania. Here’s what we’re watching.

With the governor’s race expected to be a reelection rout for Gov. Josh Shapiro, all eyes Tuesday will be fixed on four swing congressional districts that Democrats appear poised to flip and thereby win control of the U.S. House.

The path to power in Washington runs straight through the Philly suburbs — not to mention who controls Harrisburg.

For the first time in decades, Pennsylvania Democrats could also take full control of the legislature. That would give Shapiro — expected to easily cruise by Republican challenger Stacy Garrity — significantly more power to shape the direction of the state as he inches closer to announcing a 2028 presidential run.

Democrats — with momentum of a favorable national environment at their backs — have been on offense over the final weeks of the campaign, just two years after Republicans swept all statewide races on President Donald Trump’s coattails.

But the association with Trump isn’t helping this year.

Republicans are defending a pair of congressional districts they flipped in 2024 and two more seats that have been in GOP hands for more than a decade.

All in-person voting and mail ballots must be completed and submitted by 8 p.m.

Here are the races to watch and how to vote.

Shapiro, widely viewed as a likely contender for the 2028 presidency, has big ambitions Tuesday.

More than just securing his own reelection against Garrity, the state’s treasurer, Shapiro hopes to run up the margin and carry down-ballot Democrats across the finish line.

Another decisive win and a string of coattail victories would be a show of strength about his ability to perform in a key swing state that his party lost in the last presidential election. In a presidential primary, Shapiro could use that result to make an argument that he’s a strong general election candidate who can boost the Democratic brand.

Barring a shocking surprise, Shapiro should easily emerge victorious Tuesday.

Expect the race to be called early in the night based on Shapiro’s commanding lead in the polls. Pollster after pollster has found the governor leading by double digits (including The Inquirer and our partners at The New York Times and Siena University).

He holds a historically large campaign war chest and astounding approval levels for a divided state.

Garrity, who has been endorsed by Trump, broke the record in 2024 for the most number of votes received by a candidate running for state-level office in Pennsylvania. But support from the national GOP establishment has been limited, though her campaign said she saw a cash bounce after the Oct. 7 gubernatorial debate.

As she faces off against a formidable incumbent, the question is: Was it all too little, too late?

There are four U.S. House districts in the eastern portion of Pennsylvania, targeted by both parties as must wins. In each, the Republican incumbents are seeking to fend off highly financed challengers amid deep frustration among voters with the leader of their party.

Shapiro, the most popular Democrat in Pennsylvania, campaigned with each of the swing-district nominees in the final days before Election Day, while House Speaker Mike Johnson sought to boost the GOP incumbents.

1st Congressional District: Five-term Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick faces a tough challenge from Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie in the district, which covers all of Bucks County and a portion of Montgomery County. But Fitzpatrick, a moderate who has survived previous blue waves, was trailing Harvie in the most recent Inquirer/NYT/Siena poll — a sign that the independent brand Fitzpatrick has aimed to build may be wearing thin. The race is now considered a toss-up by The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan rating group.

7th Congressional District: Freshman Republican U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie narrowly flipped the Lehigh Valley district two years ago but is now widely seen as one of most vulnerable incumbents in Congress. He’s facing a formidable challenge from Democrat Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter and union leader whose blue-collar campaign has attracted support across the party’s ideological spectrum with endorsements from Shapiro and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders. Brooks is leading in the recent Inquirer/NYT/Siena poll, and multiple ratings groups now project the seat to flip for Democrats.

8th Congressional District: Freshman Republican U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan ousted a six-term incumbent in this district centered in former President Joe Biden’s hometown of Scranton two years ago. But as he faces a tough challenge from Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, Bresnahan has faced scrutiny over his stock trades and his vote to cut Medicaid — to pay for Trump’s tax cuts — despite a promise to protect the program. Cognetti led Bresnahan in the recent Inquirer/NYT/Siena poll, and especially over who voters trust most to tackle matters of corruption. The seat is considered a likely Democratic flip by multiple ratings groups.

10th Congressional District: Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, a close ally of Trump, faces a Tuesday rematch against Democrat Janelle Stelson, a former TV anchor, in the Harrisburg area district. Stelson consistently outraised Perry after narrowly losing in 2024, but the recent Inquirer/NYT/Siena poll show voters deadlocked over who they prefer to represent them. Still, many forecasters expect the seat to flip to Democrats.

In addition to these four races both national parties have targeted, Shapiro has argued that the 9th Congressional District, where Democrat Rachel Wallace is taking on incumbent GOP U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser, is flippable — despite the strong GOP lean in the district, which stretches from Berks County to the New York state border. The district is home to two warehouses that Immigration and Customs Enforcement was planning to convert into detention centers before abandoning the plan after a backlash from residents.

In Harrisburg, Democrats hold an extremely narrow majority in the state House, but the Pennsylvania state Senate has been under Republican control for more than 30 years.

This year, Shapiro wants to flip the chamber and win a trifecta to push forward his key priorities, such as codifying abortion access, raising the state’s minimum wage, and increasing funding for transit. Republicans currently hold 27 of the chamber’s 50 seats. Democrats, who currently hold 23 seats, need to win at least two additional seats and the governor’s office to win control of the chamber with the lieutenant governor as a tiebreaking vote.

The seats, drawn advantageously for Republicans, have been stubbornly resistant to political change for decades.

But this year a blue wave could usher in Democratic pickups in Philadelphia suburbs and the Lehigh Valley.

Races to watch include:

Voters can cast a ballot in person at their designated polling site. The Department of State has a link on its website to find the location nearest you.

Pennsylvanians can also vote by mail with no excuse required, but time is running out to return yours.

Completed mail ballots must be received — not just postmarked — by 8 p.m. on Election Day. Check your county’s election office to find a drop box near you.

An application and mail ballot can be also completed in one visit at an election office Tuesday.