An anti-Trump backlash could decide N.J.’s midterms. Here’s what we’re watching.

New Jersey voters in at least one district on Tuesday will help determine which party controls the U.S. House, in a midterm election widely seen as a referendum on President Donald Trump.

Incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Kean Jr. faces long odds that voters will return him for a third term in the 7th Congressional District in Central and North Jersey, as Democratic momentum builds amid a national backlash against Trump that will potentially elevate former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett to the seat.

Voters’ frustration with the president is so severe that Democrats have expanded their map in the final weeks, increasing their support for Cape May Mayor Zack Mullock’s challenge against four-term Republican U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew in South Jersey’s 2nd District.

Here’s what we’re watching as Garden State voters head to the polls Tuesday.

Beyond the national headwinds, Kean’s issues are compounded by questions around his fourth-month medical leave of absence from Congress to undergo treatment for depression. He didn’t disclose the reason for his absence until he returned to Washington in June.

Across the country, observers have viewed the outcome of the 7th District contest between Kean and newcomer Bennett as a must win for Democrats who need to flip four seats blue to achieve a majority. Republicans hold a narrow majority of 218 to 214, with one independent.

Trump’s unpopularity in New Jersey is expected to hurt Kean, who, with a few notable exceptions, has sided with the president on key issues, such as the war in Iran and international tariffs.

Bennett — herself a Republican until she changed parties after Trump won the first time a decade ago — has campaigned on ending the war, which will help reduce energy costs. The 39-year-old health information executive and former U.S. Navy pilot said she would vote to overturn the “One Big Beautiful Bill” that cuts hundred of thousands of people who rely on Medicaid and SNAP food assistance benefits.

Kean, 58, served nearly 20 years in the state Legislature before defeating Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski in 2022 by roughly 3 points, after redistricting pushed the seat toward the GOP. He touts himself as a skillful bipartisan lawmaker who helped restore and expand the State and Local Tax, or SALT deduction — a big deal in a state with the highest property taxes in the nation.

Republicans outnumber Democrats in District 7, 218,268 to 202,071, with about nearly as many unaffiliated voters, 212,745.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Mullock, 41 is challenging Van Drew, 73, who won the seat in 2018 as a Democrat. Van Drew switched parties to become a Republican a year later, pledging his “undying support” to Trump.

Mullock has mocked Van Drew’s loyalty, saying he “looks up to the president like a child.”

With his family, Mullock helped found the Harriet Tubman Museum and the Cape May Point Arts and Science Center. His family also owns the Cape May National Golf Club, where he works as vice president.

National Democrats added the district to a growing list of targeted races earlier this month, but it’s less likely to flip than some other seats in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. The Democratic PAC, Project 218, has recently invested $1.2 million in ads targeting Van Drew.

The 2nd District is a conservative one, where Republicans outnumber Democrats 201,759 to 178,060 but unaffiliated voters dominate, at 207,654, according to the state Division of Elections.

But the odds are long that the anticipated blue wave would sweep up Mullock, said Micah Rasmussen, political science professor at Rider University. “We still need to see the blue tsunami getting bigger to reach this one,” he told columnist Tom Moran.

The district contains Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland and Salem Counties and portions of Gloucester and Ocean Counties.

Trump won the district by 13 points in 2024, according to state election data.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Cory Booker is also on the ballot, running in a low-key statewide race against Republican Justin Murphy, a U.S. Navy veteran, attorney, and former deputy mayor of Tabernacle in Burlington County.

Booker, who has served in the U.S. Senate since 2013 and a frequent guest on the cable TV talk shows, is expected to win Nov. 3 and run in the presidential primary election in 2028.

Murphy has raised $68,000 this election cycle in 2026, a fraction of Booker’s cash on hand this month of $22.9 million, according to the Federal Election Commission.

Murphy is a Trump loyalist, defending the president’s decision to wage war on Iran, stating, it would be an “unbelievable, unmitigated disaster” if Iran got a nuclear weapon.

“We are not in a quagmire,” Murphy said during a debate with Booker. “The president’s right to do this.”

Booker, a fierce critic of the president, replied, “We do not need yahoo policy. We need sound people that use military force as a last resort, who know the power of diplomacy, who don’t insult your enemies and threaten to invade Canada and Greenland, but pull our allies together.”

The candidates stake out starkly different views on immigration. Murphy said New Jersey is wrong for its sanctuary state policies and not cooperating with the Trump administration’s mass deportation campaign.

“Sanctuary jurisdictions are a problem. They incentivize illegal immigration, and I don’t believe they help our state stay safe,” Murphy said during the debate.

Booker defended state policy that maintains “bright lines between what is a federal responsibility and what is a county and state and local responsibility.”

Staff writer Aliya Schneider contributed to this article.