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What the numbers say about Joel Embiid and the Sixers' future | Dick Jerardi

By one statistical measure, the Sixers can demonstrate both how far they have come and, more importantly, how far they still have to go.

    by Dick Jerardi
    Published 
Any statistical analysis of the Sixers' season admittedly will be incomplete and not necessarily predictive of the future because of how many games Joel Embiid did not play, the effect of the high draft choice(s) in June, the Ben Simmons factor, the 0-7 start to the season and the 0-8 ending.
Still, it is instructive to note that, according to John Hollinger’s numbers on ESPN.com, the Sixers finished dead last in offensive efficiency, averaging barely a point per possession, and tied for 17th in defensive efficiency. The offensive numbers interestingly would look only a touch better if it was just January, when Embiid was playing, the team went 10-5, game-winning shots were going in and the Sixers were fun to watch.
Years ago, Hollinger developed his PER (Player Efficiency Rating). It is a numerical evaluation of a player’s per-minute statistical production while accounting for the pace of the player’s team. The PER can’t calculate a player’s total value, nor does it pretend to, but incorporating true shooting percentage (threes, twos, free throws), assists, turnovers and rebounds, it gives a reasonable picture of a player’s efficiency.
Hollinger’s formula combines a series of numbers into one PER. The league average is 15.0. Nobody will be surprised that Russell Westbrook (30.7) led the NBA in PER. After Westbrook, the top 10 had Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis, James Harden, LeBron James, Isaiah Thomas, Nikola Jokic (Denver’s offensive savant big man, if you haven’t seen much of him), Chris Paul and Giannis Antetokounmpo, serious names.
Davis led the league in PER two seasons ago, Durant three seasons ago. Prior to that, James led six straight seasons. So your MVP candidates are going to be at or near the top of the PER numbers.
After posting a league-best 31.56 PER last season, with his absurd 402 threes on 45.4 percent arc shooting, 363 free throws made while shooting 90.8 percent from the line, 527 assists against 262 turnovers and 2,375 points, Steph Curry turned mortal this season with the 15th-best PER, just ahead of Embiid’s 24.2, which tied him with Damian Lillard. (Remember even though Embiid averaged just 25.4 minutes in his 31 games, the PER is a per-minute stat.)
Embiid’s value obviously can’t be measured just by his PER, which skews slightly against big men. The only NBA center with a better PER was Karl-Anthony Towns at 26.0. With Embiid, the Sixers' defense is good enough. And not just because his 2.45 blocked shots per game were second only to Utah’s Rudy Gobert, who played almost nine minutes more per game. Embiid’s mere presence on the court makes every player’s defense better.
The Sixers' other individual numbers demonstrate why the team offensive number was so bad. Their only other player in the PER top 100? Richaun Holmes, with an 18.61 PER, good for 60th.
The biggest surprise to me was Dario Saric. He was 211th with a 12.84 PER. His PER issues were 31.1 percent from three and one more turnover (183) than assist (182). Obviously, he was much better when he got more time after the trades and, given that he has been playing non-stop for so long, any fair evaluation has to acknowledge he should be better with an actual offseason to repair his body.
Bottom line, the Sixers are set at center with Embiid and Holmes, assuming, of course, Embiid is not going to become Greg Oden or Bill Walton. But the rest of it is not good, has not been good and has some ways to become good.
So what does it all mean for 2017-18? Again, hard to say because of everything I outlined at the start of the column. The Sixers won 28 games, which means something, given that they won 10 last season, Obviously, they are much better than at any time since the teardown began.
Still, getting from 10 to 28 is much easier than getting from 28 to 48, which gets you a decent seed in the playoffs, or 58, which means you are a serious championship contender.
Boston won the East with 53 wins and the Celtics have the Nets' first pick in the draft. A year after winning 73, the Warriors won 67, even with Durant missing so much time. Seven teams won more than 50.
The Sixers have emerged from the darkness and can see the sky now. Seeing it is one thing; getting up in it is quite another.
    DJ
    Dick Jerardi
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