No clear winners after big day

DEMOCRATS

Barack Obama

and

Hillary Clinton

traded jabs from coast to coast, Republican

John McCain

showed surprising weakness in the Heartland, and the race to become America's 44th president looks more muddled this morning than ever.

Early this morning, Clinton and McCain staked their claim to the biggest prize of the night, when each was declared the winner in delegate-rich California by a healthy margin.

But a solid showing by Obama in the Mountain West, an upset win in Connecticut and healthy delegate pickups in other states made it appear that the night will end with the two leading Dems in a tie in the count that matters, for delegates.

Super Duper Tuesday - a daylong slog for close to 2,700 delegates in both parties that spanned from Cape Cod to American Samoa - was once supposed to deliver a knockout blow in the race for the White House.

Instead, if the 2008 election can be compared to a prizefight, it's looking a lot more like a slow-motion 15-round decision, with punch-drunk boxers clinching into the final bell.

"It's all about the delegates," said G. Terry Madonna, the political scientist and pollster from Franklin & Marshall College, as the complicated delegate tallies lagged far behind the vote count. "Winning states is important for momentum, but the problem is the proportionality."

Clinton and Obama were winning delegates even in the states they lost. Madonna noted that many of 110 congressional districts with 4 delegates seemed certain for a 2-2 delegate split, regardless of who wins.

Here's a quick snapshot of the results:

Democrats: Obama was winning more states, including a surprisingly strong showing in the West, where he won Idaho, Colorado, Minnesota, North Dakota and Kansas, not to mention his home state of Illinois. Clinton claimed delegate-rich states in California and New York as well as Oklahoma and Arizona, but experts noted that Obama was managing to gain sizable delegates even in some of the states he was losing.

Locally, Obama won in Delaware - where he'd campaigned on Sunday - and lost a competitive race to the New York senator in New Jersey, long thought to be a Clinton stronghold. But Clinton won not only in her home state of New York but also in Massachusetts, even though Sens. Ted Kennedy and John Kerry are both backing the Illinois senator.

Republicans: McCain won the most delegates, thanks to California and winner-take-all victories in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut that led Philly-born pundit Chris Matthews to dub him "the Metroliner candidate."

But the Arizona senator didn't run strong nationally - losing Southern states like Alabama, Arkansas and West Virginia to Mike Huckabee, the choice of many evangelical Christians, while chief rival Mitt Romney ran well in the West.

"At this point it's about winning the nomination," said pundit Madonna, who said that a conservative rebellion on talk radio and elsewhere against McCain would likely fade in November if he gets the party nod. "Where else are conservatives going to go? They don't care for Hillary."

Still hanging as a long day's political journey moved into the dead of night was the biggest prize of all: California, with its huge haul of 441 delegates on the Democratic side and 173 for the GOP.

If there was an overarching theme to this confusing scrum with 43 contests in 24 states, it was that American voters remain in no mood to follow the expectations of political pundits. For example, early exit polls showed Obama running strong among Latinos, thought to be a clear part of Clinton's base.

"There is an Obama surge among Hispanic voters - especially those under 45," New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson - once a candidate himself - told MSNBC last night. "I think right now it's up for grabs. Nobody is making up their minds based on race or gender."

Meanwhile, election-reform advocates noted last night that what was tantamount to the first-ever national primary did little to improve the much-criticized system, as smaller states like Delaware got little love from the candidates.

"It was pretty much a mess - it's given us no clarity," said Steven Hill, director of political reform for the New America Foundation. "Now all we're left with is this ongoing mess of a primary season with no rhyme or reason to the way the remaining states are scattered around the country."

One of those states, of course, is Pennsylvania, which won't hold its primary until April 22. Most experts thought that rendered the Keystone State irrelevant, but now that date looms large in a most unusual political year.

Keystone connections

Here's how some Pennsylvanians working for presidential candidates saw the Super Tuesday results.

Leslie Gromis Baker - fundraising consultant for John McCain:

"I don't know if this is a knock-out punch, but it gets Sen. McCain closer to the finish line. I think once the math is done, Gov. Romney has to decide if he's going to spend more of his own money on this. There are a lot of races ahead."

Charlie Kopp - attorney, fundraiser for Mitt Romney:

"Mike Huckabee is doing better more than I expected, which means McCain's not going to get enough votes to close it out. It appears McCain is going to come out with a substantial lead, and I think Romney will have to win several of the next states to remain in contention. But this year, anything seems possible."

Mark Alderman - attorney for Barack Obama's national finance committee:

"I like where we are right now. Turn the tape back to pre-Iowa, when Hillary Clinton was the prohibitive favorite. It was inevitable. They had firewall after firewall, and so far we've blown through all of them.

"I think he will be ahead or very close in delegates. And in January, we raised $35 million, while she raised $13 million. This will go on and be very expensive. We will continute raising money and storming across the country, with crowds like the 15,000 in Boise 20,000 in Wilmington. That's not going to stop."

Alan Kessler - attorney, national co-finance chair for Hillary Clinton:

"Over the last few days, you were reading about an Obama surge, and yet Hillary did really well in a lot of states that were extremely important."

"Obama picked up several states, but at the end of the day, it's about getting the delegates, and the campaign feels it's well-positioned to win."

Where we go next

Saturday: Kansas Republicans and Nebraska Democrats hold their caucuses. Louisiana primary.

Tuesday: Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C., primaries.

Feb. 19: Wisconsin primary; Washington primary for Republicans only.

March 4: Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont primaries.

March 11: Mississippi primary.

April 22: Pennsylvania primary. Finally.

Sign that Clinton is winning

Hillary won the biggest prize of all - California.

Sign that Obama is winning

Clinton has asked for more debates, something a front-runner rarely does.

What are super-delegates?

Imagine a baseball game in which one side had a 2-1 lead before the very first pitch is thrown.

Sound preposterous? In baseball, yes, but that's essentially the scenario that the Democratic Party has created with its super-delegates - 796 elected officials and other party bigwigs who will vote on the presidential nomination based on whom they prefer, not who won their state.

These unpledged delegates make up close to one-fifth of the total that will choose between Clinton and Obama at the Democratic National Convention in Denver this August - and that fact is the prime reason that many pundits think the race will take until then to resolve.

The super-delegate system was created by the Democrats after the 1972 election, as the system was changing from one in which party nominees were chosen by bosses in a smoke-filled room to one in which voters held sway in primaries.

The super-delegates were a way to assure that party leaders took part in the convention even if an insurgent candidate won, which is what had happened with George McGovern in 1972. It also gives a boost to the establishment candidate, and so far in 2008 that candidate has been Clinton.

The New York Times and CBS News posted an updated survey of super-delegates on Monday, and the New York senator has a healthy lead. It reported that some 204 of the super-delegates back Clinton and only 99 were for Obama, with 295.5 (don't ask) undecided and 197.5 not surveyed.

That gives Clinton a 106-delegate lead outside of all the caucuses and primaries so far, and it raises an interesting question for the Democrats if Obama can win more primary delegates.

Here in Pennsylvania, two of the most prominent Democrats - Gov. Rendell and Mayor Nutter - are squarely in the Clinton camp.

Will these super-delegates for Clinton hold firm under that scenario, and would Obama's backers - more young and more African-American than the party as a whole - sit on their hands this November if the party insiders stick with Clinton?

Stay tuned.

Quotable

"In my White House we will know who wears the pantsuits." - Hillary Clinton, answering David Letterman's question about how she would stop Bill Clinton from rifling through her things in the Oval Office if she is elected president.

The original 'Yes We Can'

In case you haven't seen it, here's a link to the "Yes We Can" music video put together for Barack Obama by Will.i.am of the Black Eyed Peas: www.yeswecansong.com

Among the featured performers paying tribute to Obama's campaign catchphrase are Scarlett Johansson, John Legend and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

The phrase was an instant hit when Obama used it in his South Carolina victory speech Jan. 26.

Excerpts:

"It was a creed written into the founding documents that declared the destiny of a nation.

Yes we can.

It was whispered by slaves and abolitionists as they blazed a trail toward freedom through the darkest of nights.

Yes we can.

It was sung by immigrants as they struck out from distant shores and pioneers who pushed westward against an unforgiving wilderness.

Yes we can."

Around these parts, though, the line is nothing new.

In 1974, a second-baseman named Dave Cash rallied a young Phillies team with a history of losing by telling them they could win: "Yes We Can."

Over the next three years, the team played the best baseball in the history of the franchise.

Music: Too much BTO?

It used to be so simple. A presidential candidate picked a song, and that was his theme for the campaign.

Like Franklin Delano Roosevelt and "Happy Days Are Here Again." Or John F. Kennedy and "High Hopes." Or Ronald Reagan and "Born in the USA." Or Bill Clinton and "Don't Stop (Thinking About Tomorrow.)"

Now, the two Democratic front-runners, Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, use several songs depending on the event.

Clinton held an online contest for supporters to pick her theme song. Céline Dion's "You and I" won, but she uses other songs as frequently.

She's used Dolly Parton's "9 to 5," Tom Petty's "American Girl" and Bachman Turner Overdrive's "Takin' Care of Business," which George W. Bush used in 2000 (while Al Gore countered with BTO's "You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet.")

Obama, meanwhile, has used Stevie Wonder's "Signed Sealed Delivered I'm Yours," Bill Withers' "Lovely Day," Aretha Franklin's "Think," and U-2's "City of Blinding Lights."

On the Republican side, front-runner (and disco king) Sen. John McCain most often uses Abba's "Take A Chance On Me" as his campaign theme.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani understandably used "Rudie Can't Fail" by the punk-rock icons The Clash. His campaign results suggested the song title was not prophetic.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney most often uses Elvis Presley's "A Little Less Conversation," although he's also played BTO, a Canadian group whose music probably holds the record for being played by the most American presidential candidates.