Breaking down Phillies' potential postseason opponents

FAMOUS PHILLIES STORY: Team loses to the Pirates with a week to go in the 1975 season, leaving them seven games behind Pittsburgh with six to play. Manager Danny Ozark refuses to concede. "We're not out of it yet," he tells reporters afterward.

Point is, baseball people learn at an early age to assume nothing until it's confirmed and then confirmed again. It's easy to imagine them gathered around a campfire, telling scary stories about the one that got away because somebody took something for granted.

Still, the math is the math. The Phillies, who were off yesterday, would have to take a spectacular pratfall to avoid winning their third straight NL East title. Manager Charlie Manuel, while adhering to his one-game-at-a-time mantra, has admitted as much.

Now that September has arrived, it's impossible not to begin thinking about all the permutations of who they might play and how they might match up. But if they're beginning to organize their plans to scout possible first-round opponents, at the moment they'll have to think about fanning out. There are a lot of possible combinations.

It appears likely that the NL wild card will come out of the West this season and the Giants and Rockies are currently tied for that spot.

The defending world champions could play one of those teams if they have a better record than the Cardinals, since a first-place team can't play a wild card from its own division in the first round.

If the Cardinals finish with a better record than the Phillies, though, St. Louis would play the wild card and the Phillies would meet the Dodgers in a rematch of last year's NLCS.

If the Braves or Marlins rally to win the wild card, the Phillies would open against one of the other division winners, most likely the Dodgers or Cardinals.

Again, a lot can change in the next 5 weeks. But here's a rough ranking of the degree of difficulty the remaining contenders would present:

1CARDINALS

No team has gotten a running start into September like St. Louis. The Cardinals are 25-9 since July 24, the day they acquired slugger Matt Holliday from Oakland. And Albert Pujols remains the front-runner to win his second straight Most Valuable Player award.

But it's pitching that rules in the postseason and the Cardinals have a top of the rotation that is scary good at the moment. In games started by Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Joel Pineiro since July 1, St. Louis is a mind-boggling 29-4.

And closer Ryan Franklin has converted 35 of 37 save opportunities.

The Cardinals aren't invincible. They've played all season without third baseman Troy Glaus and much of the year without shortstop Khalil Green. They've used 15 rookies at various times. But as manager Tony La Russa told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch: "You see the grittiness of the team, the guts. They just refuse to stop competing."

2 GIANTS

Coincidentally, San Francisco opens a three-game series tonight at Citizens Bank Park. And, again, what makes the Giants dangerous is their starting pitching. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are two of the best starters in baseball. Jonathan Sanchez is a work-in-progress who is showing signs of coming into his own and Barry Zito, up to now an outrageously expensive disappointment since signing with the Giants as a free agent, has quietly gone 4-2 with a 1.92 ERA since the All-Star break.

The Giants are also a prime exhibit of how quickly fortunes can shift. They made up four games in 6 days to move into a tie with Colorado in the wild-card standings and are feeling good about their chances of making it to the postseason for the first time since 2003.

"We've got the right things," shortstop Edgar Renteria told the San Francisco Chronicle. "We can pitch. We have the guys who can play the game right."

Added 300-game winner Randy Johnson, who is on the disabled list with a torn shoulder muscle: "This team is very close, right on the doorstep of what they want to do."

The Giants might not make the playoffs. But if they do, they'll be a handful for anybody who plays them.

3 DODGERS

After getting off to a 37-18 start, Los Angeles has cooled off, going 41-35 through Sunday.

Still, it would be a mistake to underestimate the Dodgers. Joe Torre has plenty of postseason managing experience. Manny Ramirez has been slumping lately but is always a threat to go on a tear.

And this is a team that was bounced by the Phillies in the NLCS a year ago, leaving them with something to prove.

4 ROCKIES

Colorado is 54-31 since Jim Tracy replaced Clint Hurdle as manager, despite a five-game losing streak. But they play 19 of their last 31 games at Coors Field, starting with a 10-game homestand against the struggling Mets, Diamondbacks and Reds beginning tonight and then follow that up with three games at last-place San Diego.

The Rockies might not match up with some of the league's better teams on paper, but remain a threat.

"This is a good team," Joe Torre told the Denver Post. "They keep playing. They hustle all the time and play fundamentally good baseball. If you do that and believe, some good things will happen."

5 BRAVES

Their starting pitching can hold its own with anybody and Tim Hudson (elbow surgery) is making his first start of the season tonight. That's enough to make them a sleeper if they manage to make it to the playoffs.

6 MARLINS

They've overcome injuries and one of the lowest payrolls in baseball and even lower expectations to remain in the picture. And if you believe in numerology, this could be their year again. They won the World Series in 1997 and 2003, so they'd be right on schedule if they win it again.

Sources confirmed that the Phillies had some interest in Oakland infielder Nomar Garciaparra before last night's midnight deadline to add players in time to be eligible for the postseason roster . . . The Phillies announced yesterday that righthander John Ennis has been added from Triple A Lehigh Valley's roster and will be immediately placed on the disabled list. That means Ennis, 29, coming off Tommy John elbow surgery, could be added to the playoff roster if needed. To make room, infielder Brad Harmon was designated for assignment.