Voter turnout was down across Southeastern Pennsylvania compared to the 2022 midterms

At least in Southeastern Pennsylvania, the blue wave was not fueled by a surge in voter turnout.

Although some votes are still being counted, Tuesday’s turnout in Philadelphia and the four suburban counties is on track to come in slightly lower than in 2022, the last presidential midterm election cycle.

In Philadelphia, where more than 99% of ballots had been counted as of Wednesday afternoon, turnout among registered voters was about 44.6%. Four years ago, about 47.4% participated.

In Montgomery, Chester, and Bucks Counties, turnout was just over 62% on Tuesday, compared to about 66% or more in 2022. And in Delaware County, where almost 61% of registered voters cast ballots in 2022, turnout Tuesday was just shy of 57% as of Wednesday afternoon.

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Some votes still had not been counted by Wednesday, including provisionals, ballots from overseas voters, and mail-in ballots with errors that voters still have a chance to cure.

That means voter turnout rates are likely to increase slightly before results are finalized. But even if they come close to 2022 levels, there are no signs of a spike in turnout in Philly and the collar counties.

“In recent midterm elections, it was higher than the turnout that we just had, but we’re not done counting,” Philadelphia City Commissioner Seth Bluestein said.

Southeastern Pennsylvania’s relatively lower turnout may not reflect a national trend, with voter participation reportedly up in several battleground states and setting records for non-presidential years in Michigan and Minnesota.

Jim Allen, the elections administrator for Delaware County, said he was surprised turnout wasn’t higher, but declined to speculate why.

“We expected it do be a little higher, based on the speed with which people were returning their mail and absentee ballots,” Allen said Wednesday. “There seemed to be a strong desire to get that ballot back to us, even though we didn’t have as many applications.”

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One reason turnout may have been depressed locally was a dearth of competitive races that could draw voters to the polls.

“We had one competitive state [representative] race, based on the results,” Allen said of Delaware County.

Pennsylvania did not have a U.S. Senate this year, for the first time in a midterm since 2014. In the only statewide race on the ballot, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro cruised to victory as expected over Republican Stacy Garrity.

And only one U.S. House race in the region was viewed as competitive heading into Election Day. In that contest, Democrat Bob Harvie unseated Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the Bucks County-based 1st Congressional District.

Another reason may be that the blue wave had as much to do with Republicans staying home as it did with Democrats flocking to the polls.

Montgomery County Commissioner Neil Makhija, a Democrat who chairs the county’s elections board, said the turnout story provides a warning for his party as it takes the reins of power.

“Much of the win is likely from Republicans who didn’t have the enthusiasm to turn out,” Makhija said. “It’s an important lesson for Democrats because the right answer to that is we need to actually respond to the pressing issues people are facing. Otherwise, the same thing will happen when Democrats are in charge.”

This year’s participation levels were a stark contrast from 2018, the first midterm election under President Donald Trump. That year, Democrats made major gains as turnout surged to about 65% or higher in Bucks, Montgomery, and Chester Counties that year, and north of 50% in Philadelphia.

In 2022, when local turnout had slipped from four years earlier but was still relatively strong, the ballot in Pennsylvania was headlined that year by an ultra-competitive Senate race in which Democrat John Fetterman topped Republican Mehmet Oz.

Jim Knapp, who chairs the Haverford Township GOP in Delaware County, said he sensed a lack of enthusiasm heading into Election Day.

“At a cursory glance, it’s pretty disappointing. There’s just a lot of apathy,” Knapp said. “I didn’t see a whole lot of lawn signs.”