Bob Harvie narrowly leads Brian Fitzpatrick in Bucks County’s closely watched U.S. House race, new poll finds

Democrat Bob Harvie holds a narrow lead over Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in a Bucks County race that could decide control of the U.S. House.

The Bucks County commissioner leads the five-term Republican lawmaker 48% to 46% in a new poll of likely voters from The Inquirer, the New York Times, and Siena University.

Harvie’s lead is within the margin of error, but the poll shows the Democrat has a shot at flipping the district a little more than a week before Election Day — an unthinkable prospect just two years ago.

Fitzpatrick, the last remaining House Republican in the Philadelphia suburbs, entered the final month of this race with a massive fundraising advantage and decades of family name recognition. But in the swing district he also faces the drag of his party’s increasingly unpopular president amid gains in Democratic momentum.

A loss for Fitzpatrick would be monumental, but not unprecedented. His late older brother, former U.S. Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, was defeated in 2006 amid a similar national political environment before winning the seat back four years later.

Out of the state’s four swing congressional districts, President Donald Trump has his worst approval rating in the 1st District — where Gov. Josh Shapiro, who has a double-digit lead against Republican Stacy Garrity in the governor’s race, has his highest.

The younger Fitzpatrick has survived blue wave after blue wave.

The Bucks County Republican leads Harvie on character 46% to 39%, according to the poll of 400 likely voters conducted from Oct. 16 to 22.

Many voters are still forming opinions on the county commissioner. Harvie was seen favorably by 38% of respondents compared to 32% who view him unfavorably with the rest of the electorate offering no opinion. Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, was viewed favorably by 43% of voters and unfavorably by 44% after five terms.

The 1st District, which also includes part of Montgomery County, is one of the swingiest areas in the state and home to many independent voters who will help determine the election. With both campaigns courting the district’s moderate profile, Harvie and Fitzpatrick are tied at 44% among independents.

Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute, said that Fitzpatrick has demonstrated some independence “in a district that demands it,” and that his likability among voters could help him succeed on Election Day despite any disdain for the president.

But, Levy said, the race is a “toss-up.”

“Clearly, Harvie has an opportunity to hold on to this two-point lead on Election Day,” he said.

Trump has said voters should pretend he is on the ballot.

Shapiro actually is on the ballot.

They mean entirely different things for the 1st District.

Shapiro, who is unusually popular as governor, is leading Garrity in the district by 27 points, 61% to 34% — enough to potentially pull Harvie and other Democrats along on his coattails in key downballot races. Shapiro also has a 67% approval rating in the district with just 27% disapproval.

Meanwhile, Trump — who won Bucks County in 2024, though former Vice President Kamala Harris won the 1st District overall — has a 35% approval rating and 61% disapproval.

He is also deeply underwater on his handling of the cost of living (68% disapprove) as more than a quarter of 1st District voters view the economy as the most important issue in the congressional race.

This is the political landscape Democrats have been hoping for as they champion Shapiro and Harvie’s bond while trying to tie Fitzpatrick to Trump — a strategy that has not been fruitful in years past but may have more traction now given the president’s unpopularity.

Almost half of 1st District voters, 48%, think Fitzpatrick supports Trump too much, while 31% say he is about right on the president and 8% believe he opposes him too much, according to the poll.

Thirty-nine percent of voters think Harvie is about right on Trump, 30% say he opposes the president too much, and 26% did not know or declined to say how they feel about the Democrat’s perspective on the president.

Democrat Carolyn Perzan voted for Fitzpatrick in 2022 and 2024 but said she is switching her vote to Harvie this time because she feels the GOP lawmaker has changed since Trump has come back into office, noting Fitzpatrick’s key vote to advance the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (though he later voted against it on final passage).

“I don’t really know a lot about Bob Harvie, to be honest,” said Perzan, 57, of Hilltown Township. “I did do a little bit of research. I was influenced by the negative ads a little bit, but then I looked into it and I’m just going to vote Democrat because I don’t like what the Republicans are doing. At all.”

Christine Mecutchen, 60, of Furlong, similarly said that she doesn’t know much about Harvie, but that ousting Fitzpatrick is more important.

“Honestly, I’d vote for a watermelon with a hat on over that man,” the Democrat said.

An Inquirer analysis shows that Fitzpatrick is the least loyal House Republican to both Trump and his party, though he has voted with both at least 70% of the time this congressional term. The Bucks County Republican has been explicit in his disagreements with the president (Trump has not endorsed him), including his recent votes in favor of war powers resolutions for the conflict in Iran.

But the war might be a reason Mary Schoenharl’s kids stay home.

The 59-year-old independent, Libertarian-leaning voter from Chalfont plans to cast her ballot for Fitzpatrick because he aligns with her views on small government, public safety, foreign policy, and local issues. But she said she is worried about her 23- and 26-year-olds — conservatives who would otherwise vote for the incumbent — staying home on Election Day as a protest vote against ongoing foreign wars.

“They think they’re all the same, basically, and that no matter who’s in, nothing’s going to change,” Schoenharl said. “It’s how they feel. They’re disheartened.”

Meanwhile, Democrats in the homestretch are working to keep Harvie aligned with a more popular figure — Shapiro.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which recently started making bigger investments in the 1st District, is promoting the governor’s endorsement of Harvie, including in its closing ad in the contest that also seeks to connect Trump and Fitzpatrick.

Shapiro spent back-to-back weekends this month in Bucks County stumping for Harvie, including at a rally with House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, who is hopeful the county commissioner can help hand him the speakership.

At the same time, Shapiro and Fitzpatrick appear to have an amicable relationship. Fitzpatrick earlier this year said he believes the governor will win reelection and referred to him as a friend. Fitzpatrick invited Shapiro to his wedding this summer, but the governor did not attend and instead sent a “lovely note,” the New York Times reported.

In an interview with The Inquirer this month, Shapiro said, “I like Brian. I think he’s a good man, and I think he works really hard in that district,” but that his fundamental difference with him is “around the idea that he empowers Speaker [Mike] Johnson, who enables Donald Trump.”

“I think that at a time where we need more accountability for Donald Trump, enabling, you know, pathetically weak people like Mike Johnson, who just roll over and do whatever Donald Trump wants, I don’t think that that’s something that we can afford any longer,” Shapiro said. “I think it is important that there be a check on this president in Washington.”

It is likely that some voters in the 1st District will split their ticket between Shapiro and Fitzpatrick, especially in purple Bucks County, where Shapiro won by 20 points during his first bid for governor in 2022 while Fitzpatrick comfortably won reelection.

Hank Conicelli, 67, is one of those voters.

The self-described “middle-of-the-road” Republican will cast his ballot for Shapiro — he said he does not know much about Garrity — and will vote once again for Fitzpatrick, whom he describes as a “nice guy.”

“I don’t see him ever doing anything, you know, on the negative side,” the Yardley resident said, adding that Fitzpatrick “seems like he’s the type of person that helps people in need.”

Conicelli, who voted for Trump in 2024, said he believes the president had done an OK job with the economy up until the spike in oil prices due to the Iran war. But Fitzpatrick should not be bogged down by any potential negative association with Trump or the GOP, he said.

“I think he’s done a good job, and I think people will see that,” Conicelli said. “For me, personally, I look at the person vs. the ‘R’ vs. ‘D.’”

The 1st District race is also tight on the issues.

Harvie holds a slim lead over Fitzpatrick on his handling of all issues covered in The Inquirer/NYTimes/Siena poll, including the cost of living (46% to 43%), immigration (47% to 45%), foreign wars (47% to 42%), AI and data centers (43% to 40%), and corruption (47% to 40%).

Forty-six percent of voters said Harvie would do what is best for ordinary Pennsylvanians, while 44% said the same of Fitzpatrick.

The Bucks County contest has become a race focused both on the economy and corruption. Democrats and Republicans are each working to become the party of affordability and trying to paint their opponents as corrupt — namely by Fitzpatrick continuously claiming Harvie is the “subject” of an FBI corruption investigation and Democrats arguing that the Republican has enriched himself while in office.

Harvie and his lawyers have said the Democrat has never been under FBI investigation, and the candidate has filed a defamation lawsuit against a pro-Fitzpatrick PAC related to the attack.

And for Fitzpatrick’s part, spokesperson Heather Roberts said an ad by Harvie and the DCCC on the congressman’s finances is “completely absurd and completely fabricated.”

“Brian leads the charge in banning stock trading and has engaged in a total of Zero stock transactions during his entire time in office,” she said in a statement.

For Perzan, the Democrat from Hilltown Township, her vote next month is also about searching for leaders who will hold Trump accountable for what she says is his corruption.

The former Fitzpatrick voter says that everything has “gotten so outrageous,” but that something feels different this year for Democrats, who are battling to represent Bucks County in Congress for the first time in a decade and a half.

“I think there’s a lot more people that are unhappy with what’s going on,” Perzan said.

More from The Inquirer/NYT/Siena poll

The New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University poll of Pennsylvania was funded by a grant from The Lenfest Institute for Journalism. The poll was designed and conducted independently from the institute.

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This story was updated to clarify each candidate’s net favorability rating.

Staff writers Joe Yerardi, John Duchneskie, Michelle Baruchman, and Gillian McGoldrick contributed to this article.