Bucks and Montgomery counties could determine which party gets control of the Pa. state Senate

Gov. Josh Shapiro’s hope for a Democratic state Senate likely hinges on the Philadelphia suburbs, where three swing districts could give his party the majority in the chamber for the first time in 33 years.

And that includes two seats in purple Bucks County — forever the focal point of Pennsylvania’s political landscape.

Democrats in the Keystone State have zeroed in on the GOP-held seats in the 6th District in Bucks County, the 16th in Bucks and Lehigh, and the 24th in Montgomery and Berks Counties as three of the districts they’re hoping to flip to create a Democratic trifecta in Harrisburg with a possible blue wave in November.

The competitive races in Bucks and Montgomery Countyare unfolding ahead of this November’s midterm elections when Pennsylvania will also be in the spotlight for Shapiro’s reelection bid and four congressional contests that could determine party control of the U.S. House.

Like most Democrats across the country, Eileen Hartnett Albillar in the 6th District, Mark Pinsley in the 16th District, and Chris Thomas in the 24th are centering their pitch to voters around affordability as Pennsylvanians’ signal their overwhelming disapproval of President Donald Trump’s handling of economic issues and gas prices.

“Individual candidates matter, campaigns matter … but I do think it’s pretty clear that all these elections, to one extent or another, wind up being a referendum on President Donald Trump, and I think that puts Democrats in a very strong position,” said State Sen. Santarsiero, the chair of Bucks County’s Democratic Party. Santarsiero is also running for reelection this year.

Republicans currently hold 27 seats in the 50-member state Senate. Democrats would need to flip at least two seats and hold the governor’s office to take control with the lieutenant governor’s tie-breaking vote.

A Democratic trifecta in Harrisburg — if the party maintains its House majority and flips the Senate — would allow Shapiro in a second term to usher through a minimum wage increase and more transportation funding among other priorities that have been blocked by the GOP Senate.

But Democratic candidates will have to win over independent and even some Republican voters to prevail in the swing districts against GOP incumbent State Sens. Frank Farry in the 6th, Jarrett Coleman in the 16th, and Tracy Pennycuick in the 24th. The GOP has a registration advantage in all three districts, according to state data.

Farry, Coleman, and Pennycuick did not respond to requests for an interview, but the state party projected confidence about their ability to hold their seats.

“Maintaining the majority in the Senate is a top priority for Republicans in Pennsylvania,” said James Markley, executive director of the PA GOP.

He also praised Farry, Pennycuick, and Coleman for their work to lower costs and improve the state’s education system.

“When it comes to majorities in the State House or the State Senate, every seat matters,” he said.

Here’s what to watch.

Bucks County’s importance ahead of November has been clear for months.

In Warminster last May, Shapiro held a primary night party at a former space centrifuge where he promoted his reelection campaign and a slew of downballot candidates. There, Hartnett Albillar, who is also the county’s clerk of courts and a social worker by trade, declared: “The path to flipping the Senate runs right through Bucks County.”

As she continues knocking on doors and courting voters in the 6th District, which includes most of the middle of the county, that reality could not be more obvious. But, Hartnett Albillar said, despite Shapiro’s support (he has endorsed all three candidates) and a blue wave in the forecast, she’s not thinking of her election as a shoo-in.

“We know that you don’t take for granted anything in Bucks County,” she said in an interview last month.

That’s because the suburb is notorious for split-ticket voting, she said.

“Democrats have won here in other races, but I believe you have to make your case to voters individually,” Hartnett Albillar said, adding that voters in her district don’t look at party labels.

It’s a dynamic that has, for example, allowed GOP U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick to maintain his congressional seat even in years Democrats do well — like in 2022 when Shapiro won the county by nearly 20 points.

Pinsley is trying to make that argument in the Upper Bucks County portion of the 16th where voters are less familiar with the Lehigh County controller and where Republicans have a roughly 22,000 voter registration advantage — the largest gap of the three districts.

This race is also a rematch for Pinsley after he lost by 8 points against Coleman in 2022.

But the Democrat was given another chance by voters this year after he succeeded in a heated primary without the Bucks County Democratic Committee’s backing.

Now that he has the party’s support, he says it’s helped him reach a whole new circle of people for his events, including “Pastries with Pinsley,” a regular meet-and-greet at various coffeehouses in the district, but especially in Bucks. This weekend, he’s headed to the So Fresh So Green Cafe in Perkasie.

“60% of the vote is in Lehigh County, and 40% of the vote is from Bucks County,” Pinsley said in an interview last month. “We need Bucks. We need Bucks to win. You’re not going to win in just Lehigh.”

Across county lines into Montgomery County — Shapiro’s home county, which has a reputation for being deep blue — also lies another swing district that Democrats are investing in as Thomas, a volunteer firefighter and community organizer, hopes to bring Pennycuick’s tenure in the state Senate to a close.

Until now, the 24th District, a hodge-podge of suburban and rural communities in Montco and Berks County that Thomas calls “all-encompassing of Pennsylvania” has “always been just out of reach in terms of how the district was drawn.”

But this year, with a combination of voters’ frustrations and Shapiro on the ballot, Thomas believes “a lot of the stars are aligning.”

“There’s a slim path to the majority without this district,” he said.

But Republicans won’t be giving up these suburban swing districts so easily.

Michael Straw, a spokesperson for the Pennsylvania Senate Republican Campaign Committee, said the GOP is “ready to compete for every vote in Bucks County.”

Straw said in a statement that candidates will highlight the bipartisan bills that lawmakers have introduced and have since been signed into law, including Farry’s legislation to reduce cost barriers for breast cancer screenings and Coleman’s bill to address school safety and increase parental transparency.

“We are making these legislative accomplishments known to voters across the political spectrum,” Straw said.

Heading into November, both Democrats and Republicans are trying to make the case to voters in these key swing districts that they are the party of affordability.

Straw said that Republicans view these elections as an opportunity to emphasize affordability and fiscal responsibility to put “an important check on the Democrats overspending.”

“Senate Republicans have helped to prevent wasteful spending, stop the Democrats’ electricity tax that would have cost Pennsylvanians more, and have supported reducing taxes on working families,” Straw said. “PA Senate Republicans have made affordability the priority while Democrats have repeatedly stood in the way.”

And for Democrats, that means addressing voter frustrations that have trickled down from federal policies.

Trump — who has urged voters to think of him as being on ballot — is getting worsening marks on the economy from Pennsylvania voters. The president’s own voters in 2024 are also dissatisfied with his handling of gas prices, polling shows.

“They’re not happy about the Iran war. They’re not happy about the cost of gas. There are other costs that are going up, and many of them do blame the president, and all of these races have been federalized in many ways,” Pinsley said.

In response to the rising costs of living, affordability has taken up most of the oxygen in Democrats’ messaging as the party shifts away from issues that have been prevalent in previous campaigns, such as abortion.

With a focus on prices, the three swing district candidates have not had to switch up their stump speech even when chatting with Republican or independent voters that they’ll need to win over to be successful in November.

Hartnett Albillar said that all voters are simply looking for a “functional” and competent government.

Other key issues popping up in these races include funding for SEPTA and data centers; the latter of which has sparked contentious ads, including one by Hartnett Albillar’s campaign in the 6th District that provoked Farry’s campaign to file a cease-and-desist.

“I’ve heard many times that folks are not looking at whether there’s a ‘D’ or an ‘R’ next to the name,” she said. “They’re looking at the person who will be able to bring change and bring fresh ideas because the current system is not working for us. Costs are way too high, and they want someone who’s going to do the work.”