The Phillies have Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and no excuse not to finish a comeback vs. Braves

The Phillies have Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler lined up Thursday to face the Braves in Game 3, a game that seemed unlikely to be played when Bryce Harper lost that fly ball in the afternoon sun. But we know what happened next. Atta’ boy, Harper.

Now the Phils have every advantage to become just the fourth team in the new postseason format to win a wild-card series after dropping Game 1.

The key to winning this series was forcing a third game as Atlanta entered the playoffs unsure who would be its third starter. It’s reported that they’ll use Ray Kerr, a reliever who returned in August from Tommy John surgery, as an opener followed by Grant Holmes as a bulk reliever.

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And we thought Don Mattingly’s options were limited this postseason.

Credit Cristopher Sánchez and Andrew Painter for the heavy lifting in Game 2 on Wednesday. They were excellent and allowed the Phils to enter Game 3 with Nola and Wheeler, two pitchers who have met the moment more often than not in this Phillies era.

Jhoan Duran didn’t pitch in Game 2 so he’ll be ready on Thursday. Mattingly said it’s “all hands on deck” but the Phillies would love to just use three.

Earl Weaver famously said momentum in baseball is the next day’s starting pitcher. The Phillies left Game 2 with plenty of momentum after punching back with three homers and now they’ll enter Game 3 on the same ride as the Braves scramble to find a pitcher.

Kerr throws in the mid-90s and faced the Phillies twice in September, holding them scoreless over 6⅓ innings in relief in a pair of games the Phils won. Holmes is a middle-of-the rotation starter with a low-90s fastball who blanked the Phillies for six innings in a 1-0 Phils victory on Sept. 7. Kerr and Holmes handled the Phillies in September. But then again, who didn’t?

» READ MORE: Alec Bohm’s homer saved the season for the Phillies against the Braves. He’d ’love’ to stay. Re-sign him.

The toughest game of the series was always going to be Game 1 against Chris Sale, and the Phillies nearly won. The level of difficultly eased up in Game 2 against Tyler Mahle. The Phillies won that. The key to winning this series was always if the Phils could force a third game, knowing Atlanta could not match their starters. The Phillies got to Game 3. There’s no excuse not to finish the job.

Do what he did last year against the Dodgers in an elimination game. He pitched two innings, navigating one turn through the L.A. lineup in Game 3 of the National League Division Series before passing it to Ranger Suárez. Nola and Suárez combined for one run over seven innings. The plan was then to use Duran for six outs but that wasn’t necessary as the Phils took a seven-run lead in the eighth. The Phils will ask more from Nola than two innings but the task will be the same: Keep it close and get the ball to Wheeler.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper was ‘bound to have a great moment,’ hits redemption homer: ‘A pick-me-up game for me’

Do what he always does. The Phillies looked ready to collapse last week until you saw that Wheeler was starting Game 162 and the Phillies just needed a win. Did anyone doubt Wheeler? He threw 97 pitches on Sunday so he’ll be pitching in Game 3 on three days’ rest. How many innings can the Phils expect from him? Two or three would be ideal. If Nola goes four or five and Wheeler gets you to the seventh, then Duran can take it from there.

… Painter starting his postseason debut by throwing six straight balls before pitching three scoreless innings for the win. The biggest positive to come out of this season has been Painter since he returned from triple A. He didn’t look ready for the moment in the first half of the season just like he didn’t look ready for it on Wednesday. But he finished the regular season with a 3.65 ERA in 11 starts. He recovered, just like he did on Wednesday. It’s too early to think about 2027 but at least the Phillies know they can factor Painter into their plans. That wasn’t a guarantee in June.

» READ MORE: Three Phillies conquered a game of failure, saved their season, and summoned the spirit of 2022

… how about the Braves not using Robert Suarez in Game 2? Suarez returned from the injured list in September and pitched twice in the season’s final week before being added to the postseason roster. He was lights out as Atlanta’s setup man before injuring his elbow in June and his velocity last week was about where it was preinjury. So how does Suarez — who the Braves signed before the season to a three-year contract worth $45 million — not get used in Game 2?

The Braves played matchups in the eighth and got burned by left-hander Dylan Lee giving up back-to-back left-on-left homers to Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Suarez, a right-hander, had better numbers this year against lefties than righties. That could’ve been his spot. In the 10th, Bohm homered against Didier Fuentes, who pitched for a second straight day after giving up a two-run triple in Game 1 to J.T. Realmuto. That could’ve been Suarez, too. The Phils will take it.

Game 1 of the NLDS will be Saturday in Los Angeles against the Dodgers and the Phils would be happy to have to figure out their pitching plan. Jesús Luzardo would be on three days’ rest but would the Phils push him so soon after returning from the injured list? Painter would be on two days’ rest after throwing 37 pitches in relief. Can he go on Saturday?

It’ll be interesting to see how the Phils handle Game 1. One guess: They use Painter as an opener and hope he can give them three innings. Then they lean on the bullpen and try to steal a game. That allows Luzardo to be on regular rest in Saturday’s Game 2 and Wheeler to start Tuesday’s Game 3 on regular rest in Philly. First, they have to win Thursday.