WASHINGTON - In the labor market of the future, fewer construction workers will be needed. Don't expect as many interior designers, either, and retailers will get by with leaner staffs.
Although the U.S. economy is strengthening after the recession, millions of jobs lost in the last two years probably are gone for good.
And unlike after past recessions, jobs in the beleaguered manufacturing sector aren't the only ones likely lost forever. What sets the Great Recession of 2007-09 apart is the variety of jobs that might not return.
That helps explain why economists think it will take at least five years for the economy to regain the 8.2 million jobs wiped out by the recession - longer than in any other recovery since World War II.
It means that even as the economy strengthens, more Americans could face years out of work. Already, the percentage of the labor force unemployed for six months or longer is 4.3 percent, the highest rate on records dating to 1948.
Behind the trend are the cutbacks that businesses made in the recession to make up for a loss of customers. To sustain earnings, they became more productive: They found ways to produce the same level of goods or services with fewer workers. Automation, global competition, and technological efficiencies helped solidify the trend.
Diminished home equity and investment accounts have made shoppers more cautious, too. And their frugality could endure well into the recovery. That's why fewer retail workers, among others, will likely be needed.
Among those whose former jobs may be gone for good are:
Julie Weber, 29, of Milwaukee, who designed office cubicles for nearly seven years. She lost her job about a year ago. Since then, she's been able to find only part-time work outside her field. Interior design was hammered by the real estate downturn.
Erik Proulx, 38, a former advertising copywriter in Boston, who finds more companies are turning to social media and viral marketing and are less drawn to agencies that focus on traditional TV and print ad campaigns. Proulx was laid off in October 2008 - the third time an employer had cut his position or had closed. He no longer wants to rejoin the industry. Proulx has started a blog to help other unemployed ad professionals network.
Louis DiFilippo, 30, who decided to study information technology after losing his job managing a gourmet food store in Washington. After six months of unemployment, he embraced a career with more stability: He works on computer network security for the Navy.
More than one-third of chief financial officers at 620 big companies surveyed in March by Duke University and CFO magazine said they did not expect to restore their payrolls to prerecession levels for at least three years. Nearly all cited higher productivity and tepid consumer spending.
"Companies have just figured out, 'We didn't want to fire people . . . but now that they're gone, we've realized that we can get by without them,' " said John Graham, a Duke finance professor who directed the survey.
