🗳️ It’s Bucks season| PA 2026 Newsletter
And why not everyone who likes Josh Shapiro as governor wants him to run for president.
📅 There are 32 days until Election Day.
It wouldn’t be a Pennsylvania election without Bucks County becoming the star of the show.
And that’s exactly what’s happening this weekend, when Gov. Josh Shapiro travels to the swingiest of the swing counties to stump for Democrats up and down the ballot in key races.
🎤 I’m Fallon Roth, the suburban politics reporter at The Inquirer, coming to you live from Bucks (my home county) as we dig into how the suburb will be the make-or-break place for Democrats’ wishlist next month, including a win for Bob Harvie in the 1st Congressional District and shift in party control in the state Senate, which could only happen with help from the Philly suburbs.
We’ll also explore whether Pennsylvania voters would support Shapiro turning his attention to a bid for the White House in 2028.
In this edition:
🗳️All hands on deck: Shapiro will be in Bucks County Saturday to launch a day-of-action for Democrats, organized by Planned Parenthood’s state-level PAC.
🗳️ The Bucks stops here: Two Bucks County swing districts and another in Montco could determine which party controls the state Senate.
🗳️Homefield (dis)advantage?: Pennsylvania voters are split on whether Shapiro should run for president in 2028.
-Fallon Roth, Michelle Baruchman, Sam Janesch, Gillian McGoldrick (pa2026@inquirer.com)
The latest
The price of gas, groceries and, well, living is on the rise and Pennsylvania’s swing district voters will have affordability on their minds as they head to the ballot box next month.
As democratic socialist candidates become more mainstream — including in Philly — most Pennsylvania Democrats said in a recent Inquirer/New York Times/Siena University poll that they have a positive view of socialism.
Shapiro and Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (possible 2028 rivals) went to Sam’s Morning Glory Diner in Philly to energize voters ahead of the midterms.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., President Donald Trump’s health and human services secretary, is even less popular than the president with Pennsylvania voters.
📊 Without a doubt, Shapiro is a popular governor. He’s viewed favorably by Democrats, independents and even some Republicans — no small feat in a swing state that voted for President Donald Trump in 2024. But whether these likely Pennsylvania voters want Shapiro to run for president in 2028 is an entirely different question.
Voters, in a poll conducted by Siena University on behalf of The Inquirer and the New York Times, were split on whether Shapiro, who is expected to pursue a White House bid, should run: 43% of respondents want him to run, and 44% don’t.
Of those supporting a potential presidential campaign, 41% ranked his character and competence as their reasons, and nearly one in five said they were satisfied with Shapiro’s performance as governor. But for those who oppose a run, it’s not necessarily because they don’t like him (although that is the case for 21% of respondents).
About one in 10 said they would prefer Shapiro, who is up for reelection this November with a commanding lead against his competitor, to remain in Pennsylvania. Campaigning and presidential debates would likely begin soon into his second term.
Others, however, said they are worried that the U.S. is not ready for a Jewish president. Shapiro has spoken openly about his faith and experiences with antisemitism.
“I like his views. I like his policies. I like everything. I just think his religious affiliation will stop him from winning because I think the rest of the country, especially the middle of the country, will rally against him,” said Michael Biello, a 68-year-old Democrat in Philadelphia.
Campaign scrapple
🏥 Is the U.S. ready for Medicare for All?
Democrat Bob Harvie thinks there needs to be more trust in the federal government first before it starts running the healthcare system, he told The Inquirer on Tuesday evening.
Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner challenging GOP U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the swingy 1st Congressional District, has focused his campaign on addressing rising costs and increasing access to healthcare, such as advocating for 55-year-olds to be able to buy into Medicare.
“My worry is you start talking to people about well, ‘We’re going to take away the healthcare system you have, and we’re going to give you another one, and the government’s going to run it,’” Harvie said of Medicare for All. “We’ve got a lot of work to do to rebuild trust in the government, just like we have a lot of work to do to rebuild how this healthcare system works.”
Harvie was joined Tuesday by Democrats Eileen Hartnett Albillar, running in the key 6th state Senate district, and U.S. Rep. Lauren Underwood, of Illinois.
👀 What we’re watching
Shapiro and Garrity will face off in a live, televised debate this coming Wednesday, Oct. 7. The Harrisburg-based TV station ABC27 is hosting the debate, which will air on several stations owned by Nexstar across Pennsylvania, including WPHL-TV in Philadelphia. Politics reporters Gillian McGoldrick and Michelle Baruchman will break the major moments down at inquirer.com/politics.
Quote of the week
Fitzpatrick agrees with his opponent, Harvie, on one thing: this election will hinge on which party voters think will do a better job lowering the cost of living.
Voters in the four key congressional swing districts have repeatedly expressed frustration that their dollar doesn’t go as far as it used to and that could be trouble for incumbents this fall.
👋 Thanks for reading, and don’t forget to check back as we enter a final campaign month packed with debates, candidate events and maybe even a few October surprises. You can follow The Inquirer politics team’s coverage here, and we’ll see you in your inbox next Friday.
