Affordability is on voters’ minds in Pa. swing districts as the cost of gas and groceries skyrockets

SCRANTON — Four of Mike Parry’s tenants can no longer afford to pay their rent. Suddenly, their financial pain is his.

“It’s the affordability of everything that’s the problem,” said Parry, 60, of Clarks Summit, Lackawanna County. “We’re all feeling it now.”

With the war in Iran rocketing gas to almost $5 a gallon, inflation surging to 3.4% from 2.6% in 2025, and food prices up nearly 3% over last year, the high cost of living is weighing on the minds of many voters — and candidates — as the midterm elections draw near.

Nowhere is that more critical than in four tightly contested Pennsylvania congressional districts that could decide the control of the U.S. House — in Bucks County, the Lehigh Valley, the Harrisburg area, and Northeast Pennsylvania.

Parry, a Republican and supporter of President Donald Trump, said he is aware that many Americans hold the president and his party accountable for the affordability crisis, including in the 8th Congressional District, where Parry plans to back GOP U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan over Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, the Democratic nominee.

But other voters might not be so kind to Trump-aligned incumbents this fall.

Among likely voters in Pennsylvania, 75% disapprove of how Trump is handling the cost of living, compared with just 25% who approve, according to a recent poll from The Inquirer, the New York Times, and Siena University. And 73% disapprove of how he has handled gas prices, vs. 24% who approve. About 65% disapprove of his handling of the economy, vs. 34% who approve.

“It doesn’t matter what party you’re in,” Parry said. “We’re all getting hammered the same.”

PA 2026

A weekly newsletter

What’s really happening in Pennsylvania politics? This newsletter makes you the smartest person in the room on Pennsylvania’s midterms.

At his local Wawa gas station in Allentown, P.J. Santos, 32, removed his finger from the pump trigger before his tank filled.

“Now I tell myself to spend less,” said Santos, a Democrat who is supporting former firefighter Bob Brooks over Republican U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in the Lehigh Valley’s 7th Congressional District.

“So I buy less than I need,” he added, tightening his gas cap. “Same goes for date nights with my wife: Spend less.”

That is harder when you’re buying food, said Tammy McCoy, 52, of Easton in the same district. “Walk into any grocery store,” said McCoy, a Democrat and professional cook. “It’s like you have to hand them $50 at the door.”

Trump, she remembered, promised to lower prices on Day 1 of his presidency. Not only did that not happen, she added, he raised tariffs, making imported staples like coffee, nuts, and olive oil more expensive. “Because of that,” McCoy added, “I’m against him and Republicans.”

Tapping into the frustration over food prices, Democrat Janelle Stelson’s campaign is pointing to the cost of hamburgers as she seeks to oust Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry in the 10th Congressional District.

Stelson eats a burger in a TV ad that says Americans now pay $7.29 for a pound of ground beef — a result of tariffs Trump imposed and Perry supported.

But criticism of Trump’s tariffs will not sway Tammy Green, 60, a Republican voter in the 8th Congressional District who supports Bresnahan over Democrat Cognetti.

“Because he’s a businessman, President Trump understands the economy. … He’s negotiating fair prices with tariffs,” said Green, a former travel agent who lives in West Wyoming, Luzerne County.

On a hot September day in Levittown, people gathered to celebrate the grand opening of the new headquarters of the United Way of Bucks County. Focused on helping anyone experiencing financial hardship, the building features an expanded HELP Center, where diapers, fresh produce, and clothing are available at no charge.

As need skyrockets, the nonprofit expects a 40% to 50% increase in demand this year, Marissa Christie, president and CEO, said in an interview.

“Folks are telling us that in the grocery store, their budget is not going as far as it used to,” Christie said. “When they go to fill up their gas tank, their money is not going as far as they expected.”

Attending the event alongside other local lawmakers was U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R., Bucks), who secured $4.15 million in federal funds for the building and said the agency will “always be in that top-10 list” of key nonprofits helping those in need.

The cost of living has become a focal point in the 1st Congressional District race as Fitzpatrick fends off a challenge from Democratic County Commissioner Bob Harvie in the Bucks County-based swing district.

Pennsylvania Democrats, including Harvie, have centered their campaign messaging on affordability in hopes of appealing to voters across the political spectrum.

“Costs are what affect people every single day … whether it’s at the pump, whether it’s in the grocery store,” Harvie said in an interview with The Inquirer’s Editorial Board. “Housing costs obviously are huge. It’s a major issue here in this district, especially in the county.”

(The editorial board, which runs The Inquirer’s opinion pages and decides endorsements, operates independently from the newsroom. Newsroom editors and reporters have no role in endorsements, and opinion staffers have no role in news coverage.)

Fitzpatrick, too, acknowledged in an interview at the U.S. Capitol last month that affordability is the top issue not just in this election, but in every election.

“The No. 1 priority, the No. 1 focus, has to be on affordability — has to be,” he said. “That’s the issue that got Trump elected in ’24. It’s what got [New York Mayor Zohran] Mamdani elected in ’25. It’s what people care about.”

Demonstrating their awareness of voter focus on the high cost of living, Trump administration officials and local Republicans repeatedly emphasized “affordability” as they touted their work to combat rising electricity prices at a PPL Electric Utilities facility in Allentown last week.

“This is a quick way to lower electricity prices and increase reliability,” U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said as he announced up to $71.5 million in federal funding for PPL, which was among $2 billion in new spending aimed at improving the electric grid.

Upgrades to existing transmission lines will include new technology like sensors to detect weather conditions, improving efficiency and ultimately lowering electricity costs, according to the Energy Department.

Asked how quickly consumers might see those improvements, Wright did not specify a timeline but noted that new, large-scale energy users — like data centers — are negotiating with utilities about how much of the increased demand they will cover.

Mackenzie, a freshman lawmaker whose district includes the Lehigh Valley and Poconos, also emphasized a bill he supports that would set federal standards for data centers to pay for their electricity use, and another to promote transparency around retail electric costs.

Mackenzie said energy policy needs to keep “affordability front and center.”

Some Trump voters say they are willing to pay more for gas and other essentials as the president pursues his policy goals at home and in Iran.

“We incur a cost that stinks now to avoid another Sept. 11 later,” said T.J. Fitzgerald, 60, a Republican bail bondsman from Nanticoke, Luzerne County, in the 8th Congressional District. “Fighting Iran, a terrorist organization, is worth inflation at the pump.”

Ryan Kavulich, a 37-year-old project manager from Dunmore in nearby Lackawanna County, disagreed with that logic.

“The war’s a nightmare with what it’s costing for diesel,” said Kavulich, a Democrat who plans to back Cognetti in November.

People in the 8th District know that Bresnahan voted against ending the war with Iran in September, Kavulich said.

“And that makes voting for Paige [Cognetti] in November the easiest choice ever,” he said. “So many people around Scranton have a blue-collar, kitchen-table, commonsense vibe. They know going into Iran isn’t what you do. They know it’s time to be over Bresnahan and Trump.”

As the cost of fuel continues to climb, even some longtime Republicans in the district are expressing their doubts about the economic consequences of Trump’s war.

“I voted for Trump three times,” said Greg Kerrick, 58, a Republican voter from Scranton.

“But I don’t like him pushing up gas prices,” added Kerrick, who is unemployed. “And I feel for anyone paying over $4 a gallon.”

More from The Inquirer/NYT/Siena poll

The New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University poll of Pennsylvania was funded by a grant from The Lenfest Institute for Journalism. The poll was designed and conducted independently from the institute.

• Most of Pa.’s likely voters disapprove of Donald Trump and his policies, new poll shows
• Josh Shapiro has a 16-point lead in the governor’s race — and most Pa. Democrats would support him for president
• Pa. Democrats say John Fetterman is siding with Donald Trump too much, new poll shows

• 6 in 10 Pennsylvania voters oppose data center development, new poll finds

• Pope Leo XIV is popular with Pa. Democrats after feud with Trump. But Republicans are split.

• Young Pa. voters are frustrated with Trump as they grapple with ‘the cost of continuing to exist’

• Pa. voters are more critical of Trump’s handling of the economy than they were a month ago

• John Fetterman’s favorability dips as voters see him more as a Republican than a Democrat

• 1 in 4 Pa. GOP voters don’t know who Stacy Garrity is as Josh Shapiro widens lead in governor’s race

• New poll shows RFK Jr. is unpopular among Pa. voters amid feud with Shapiro over measles

• Pa. Democrats have mostly positive view of socialism as progressive candidates secure wins