Groundhog Day 2026: Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow
Punxsutawney Phil has only been accurate 30% of the time over the last 10 years, according to data from NOAA.
Expect the deep cold Philadelphia has been experiencing to continue for the next six weeks, at least according to Punxsutawney Phil.
The weather-predicting groundhog saw his shadow Monday outside his hole at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney. If you believe such things, that means the entire country — including our snow-covered section of the Northeast — can expect below-average temperatures for the next six weeks.
That won’t come as a surprise to folks in Philadelphia, where the temperature hasn’t made it past the freezing mark of 32 degrees for more than a week.
Despite the frigid temperatures in Punxsutawney, thousands of Phil’s biggest fans gathered early in the morning for what remains the weirdest celebration of meteorology and marmots.
What do forecasters say?
Predicting the arrival of spring beyond the vernal equinox on March 20 is tricky business, especially when trying to apply it to a regionally diverse country as large as the United States.
As of Sunday, NOAA was predicting below-average temperatures in February along most of the East Coast all the way west to the Mississippi River. But that’s counterbalanced by above-average temperatures predicted along the West Coast inland as far as Texas.
As for the Philadelphia region, temperatures are expected to remain near or below freezing for at least the next week, with another cold snap possible for the weekend.
The temperature reached above freezing at Philadelphia International Airport on Monday, ending a frigid nine-day streak dating to Jan. 23, the longest since 2004.
If you need to get out, the warmest day of the week is expected to be Tuesday, with highs forecast to reach the mid-30s.
“Outside of that, our high temperatures through the week are looking to be below freezing,” said Amanda Lee, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Mount Holly office, where it dipped to minus-1 degree Sunday morning.
For sake of comparison, the normal high temperature in Philadelphia in the beginning of February is 42 degrees. So we have a ways to go before anything approaching spring reaches the city.
How accurate has Punxsutawney Phil been over the years?
Were you actually expecting a four-legged creature to accurately predict the weather?
In short, no, I wouldn’t peg my plans over the next six weeks on Phil’s prediction. According to a 2025 analysis by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Phil’s forecast has been accurate only 35% of time, based on data of more than a century.
Last year, when Phil predicted six more weeks of winter, temperatures in Philadelphia were 1.8 degrees above normal for the six weeks following Phil’s forecast, with a high of 48 degrees and a balmy low of 30. Nationally, the contiguous U.S. saw near-average temperatures in February and much-above-average temperatures in March 2025, according to NOAA.
“Phil’s forecast was incorrect,” NOAA said bluntly.
A dead groundhog in Lancaster has been more accurate than Phil
Why brave frigid temperatures in the early morning hours to wait on Phil when you can just pull a stuffed groundhog out of the closet?
That’s what the folks in Lancaster do. Every Groundhog Day since 1907, handlers at the Hibernating Governor of the Slumbering Groundhog Lodge in Quarryville fetch the remains of Octoraro Orphie — often sporting a top hat and bow tie — to offer some weather divination.
They do get outside, celebrating with a parade that ends at the so-called Pinnacle of Prognostication (their tongue-in-cheek description of a manure spreader), where Orphie’s forecast is delivered to the faithful.
What’s wild is the stuffed groundhog is surprisingly accurate, nailing its prediction more than 52% of the time, according to a NOAA analysis done last year.
Orphie did not see his shadow Monday, predicting an early spring. We’ll see which groundhog ends up being right.
Lancaster is a hotbed for groundhog activity, sporting several weather-predicting furballs, including Mount Joy Minnie (who did not see her shadow), M.T. Parker (who did), and a pair of actual living groundhogs in Elliott and Lilly at Acorn Acres who were set to offer their predictions Monday evening.
But none of Pennsylvania’s native groundhogs have been as accurate over the years as Staten Island Chuck. Since his first forecast in 1981, Chuck (formally Charles G. Hogg) has accurately predicted an early spring or six more weeks of winter an astounding 85% of the time, according to NOAA’s analysis.
On Monday, Chuck agreed with Phil, predicting six more weeks of winter, which seems like a safe call.
Chuck has been able to remain accurate despite dealing with much more harrowing conditions than his Pennsylvania counterpart. In 2009, Chuck bit then-Mayor Michael Bloomberg and was secretly replaced by granddaughter Charlotte for the 2014 ceremony. Unfortunately, then-Mayor Bill de Blasio dropped Charlotte, and the groundhog died several days later.
How did this whole marmot-predicting-the-weather thing start?
According to the Pennsylvania Tourism Office, Romans took the early Christian holiday Candlemas to Germany, where it was said that if there was enough sun on Candlemas Day for a badger to cast a shadow, there would be six more weeks of bad weather.
German immigrants brought this tradition to Pennsylvania, and in 1886 the editor of Punxsutawney’s newspaper teamed up with a group of groundhog hunters to begin the legend of Punxsutawney Phil’s weather prowess. So in the United States and Canada, we celebrate Groundhog Day on the same date Christians across the globe celebrate Candlemas.
Good luck trying to stream Groundhog Day today
You’re not wrong if you remember seeing Groundhog Day on Netflix the other day. It’s just not there now.
The beloved 1993 comedy, staring Bill Murray and directed by the late Harold Ramis, left Netflix as of Sunday. Other than renting the film through a host of streaming platforms, the only other place to stream Groundhog Day on Groundhog Day is AMC+, a subscription service few have that’ll set you back $9.99 a month (though it does have a seven-day free trial).
If you still have a cable subscription, Groundhog Day is airing all day on AMC beginning at 8:30 a.m. Philly time, so set your DVR.
Are there any other Groundhog Day movies?
Listen, we all love Groundhog Day, but to some watching it each and every year is starting to feel a bit like the movie’s repetitive plot.
There are plenty of Christmas, Halloween, and even Valentine’s Day movies for us to choose from. Aren’t there any other films that take place on Groundhog Day?
Sadly, no. About the best you’ll get are a few animated short films, such as the early Disney flick Winter (featuring Walt Disney’s uncredited voice as a raccoon) and 1947’s One Meat Brawl from Warner Bros. And that’s only if you can find them.
Now, if you’re looking for a movie swiping Groundhog Day’s premise — someone living the same day over and over again — there are a few options, from Tom Cruise in Edge of Tomorrow to the sci-fi comedy Palm Springs, staring Andy Samberg and Cristin Milioti.
There’s also 1998’s Run Lola Run, a German thriller where Franka Potente’s protagonist gets three chances to re-run the same 20 minutes to save the life of her boyfriend.